Professor Jerry Coyne: Mātauranga Māori strikes again

This article from the New Zealand Herald shows what we already know: that “indigenous ways of knowing” in New Zealand, or Mātauranga Māori (henceforth “MM”) are loudy touted as making substantial contributions to scientific knowledge—in this case to predictions of volcanic eruptions. And while it’s possible that MM can make some contributions to predictions of the damage that could result from eruption, even those predictions are nebulous.

As usual, the mixture of empirical knowledge, legend, superstition, ideology, and proper behavior that constitute MM are said to be crucial for an empirical endeavor, but no specifics are ever given. In the end, it seems again that MM is tacked on to science to pretend that it’s coequal in its value, but that no evidence is given to support coequality.

You can see an archived link by clicking the headline below.



The issue is how to predict when a now-dormant volcano, Mount Taranaki on New Zealand’s North Island, will erupt again. The article summarizes a five-year study of how to predict not just that but also how to assess the damage from an eruption. The researchers apparently used real science to get the dates of eruptions (radiometric dating for dates of past eruptions, which go back to 200,000 BCE, with the most recent being 1854), and research from Massey University to calculate possible damage. That damage could be severe because Mount Taranaki can have damaging eruptions involving collapse of the volcanic cone plus dangerous mudflows. The hazards are summarized by Wikipedia:

Much of the region is at risk from lahars [mudflows], which have reached the eastern coast.[25]: 466  A volcanic event is not necessary for a lahar: even earthquakes combined with heavy rain or snow could dislodge vast quantities of unstable layers resting on steep slopes. Many farmers live in the paths of such possible destructive events.

Although volcanic eruptions are notoriously chaotic in their frequency, some scientists warn that a large eruption is “overdue”. Research from Massey University indicates that significant seismic activity from the local faults is likely again in the next 50 years and such might be permissive to an eruption. What ever in the next 50 years, the probability of at least one eruption is between 33% and 42%.[25]: 473  Prevailing winds would probably blow ash east, covering much of the North Island, and disrupting air routes, power transmission lines and local water supplies.[35]

None of the references given in the Herald piece, including this one and this one—papers and articles that discuss the volcano’s geological history and possible damage—even mention MM, but it’s still touted as helping contribute to this five-year project. Some quotes from the NZ Herald article (I’ve put my translations of the Māori, taken from the Māori Dictionary, in brackets):

A Mt Taranaki eruption could bring the region to a standstill, knock out regional infrastructure and cause up to $16 billion worth of damage, a new study has found.

Researchers across New Zealand undertook a five-year study weaving together volcanic science, dynamic risk modelling, economic analysis and mātauranga ā iwi [knowledge from the tribes] to project what would happen if the volcano erupted.

University of Auckland Professor Shane Cronin said the programme began because researchers knew there was a 30-50% chance that Taranaki could erupt in the next 50 years.

“Our job was to listen to the mounga [mountain], study its past behaviour, and start to understand what signs it might give before erupting again.”

The rest of the article discuses the dates of previous eruptions (determined by direct observation by “Westerners” or via radiometric dating), as well as the possible damage that could occur, including this:

The research revealed how a disruption to the electricity system could cascade through the oil and gas industries, transport networks, and water systems, causing widespread impacts across the= region and nation.

“The risk modelling suggests a Taranaki eruption is a potential regional disaster, it’s a national energy security challenge, and a potential future economic crisis,” Wilson said.

“The ripple effects of an eruption go far beyond ash and lahars.

“Volcanic ash can short-circuit power lines, block roads, contaminate water sources, and clog water treatment plants, causing critical infrastructure systems to fail at the exact time they’re needed most.

“Lahars could also destroy bridges and cut off lifeline services, disrupting transport and access to basic needs like food and water, as well as limiting access to some communities.”

Economic modelling predicts losses from a future eruption of Taranaki mounga could be between $12b and $16b, depending on the type, scale, and duration of the event.

This appears to have come from empirical observation, with no explicit contribution from MM. But then they put in the indigenous “ways of knowing” stuff, heavily larded with Māori words.

Weaving m ātauranga Māori and risk science.

The programme worked in partnership with Uri to weave together [Note the reference to “Western science”, which should be “modern science”.]

Bilingual resources, interactive StoryMaps, and wānanga [tribal or traditional knowledge; could also mean an “indigenous sage”] created spaces for kōrero [conversations] about the mounga’s past and future.

“You can’t understand volcanic risk in Taranaki without understanding the whakapapa [genealogy or history] of the mountain, whenua [land] and awa [rivers], the kōrero tuku iho [oral tradition] and mātauranga [knowledge] held by whānau [family groups], hapū [kinship groups or tribes] and iwi [tribes] who hold ancestral connections to the mounga [mountain] and have done so for generations,” said Acushla Dee Sciascia of Mapuna Consultants.

This research provided a platform for Māori researchers to contribute their voices, leading to richer outputs including monographs, visual exhibitions, and new ways of telling the mounga’s story.

“Taranaki mounga [tribal groups near the mountain] provides us with so many learnings from its past and how our tūpuna [ancestors] navigated previous volcanic events, and it’s up to us now to prepare our whānau [land] for the future,” Sciascia said.

“This programme has laid a foundation. But the real mahi [effort] is in how we carry this forward, and how we embed mātauranga Māori into everyday planning, science, and response.”

What is missing here is how mātauranga Māori really is woven together with Western science in a productive way. Conspicuously absent is any mention about how MM really does help us assess volcanic risk, and mentioning “StoryMaps”, visual exhibitions, traditional knowledge, and so on doesn’t give us any insight about the two main aspects of the article: predicting future eruptions and assessing potential damage. Nor does seeing how earlier inhabitants coped with the damage give us much help in figuring out how to cope with the damage now. In the end, it seems that straight empirical observation and empirical-based prediction is what is needed here, and I can’t for the life of me find out how MM can help with that.

Nevertheless, I’ve tried to understand how it could, and, to be fair, it’s possible that Māori could contribute to the risk assessment by describing the ways that they would deal with an eruption, and what are their strengths and weaknesses in doing so. Also—and this is PR more than science—mixing MM in with science could prompt the Maori to take the risks of living near the volcano more seriously. But this doesn’t show how mixing MM with “Western science” gives us any idea of when Mount Taranaki is going to blow (that will be from pure science) or how to deal with possible damage (which depends on the seriousness of the eruption, something we don’t know). Once again we find that “traditional ways of knowing” don’t seem to help with understanding the real world, though catering to its proponents may create more amity between indigenous peoples and the descendants of Western colonists.

Here’s Mount Taranaki from the Wikipedia article. I think I saw it when I visited NZ, and it’s impressive.

Public domain

And a photo I took in April, 2017. It’s not labelled, but it sure looks like Mt. Taranaki! I would ask Heather Hastie, but she is no more.



Professor Jerry Coyne is an American biologist known for his work on speciation and his commentary on intelligent design, a prolific scientist and author. This article was first published HERE