Geoff Parker: Risk, Not Race, Drives Justice Outcomes

Matthew Tukaki’s two-part Radio Waatea series (Part One, Part Two) presents Māori over-representation in the criminal justice system as proof of systemic bias operating “at every stage” — from policing to sentencing. It is a compelling story. It is also an incomplete one.

The core claim running through the series is that disparity equals discrimination. But disparity alone does not establish bias. Any serious analysis must ask a more uncomfortable question: are justice outcomes primarily driven by ethnicity, or by differences in offending patterns, prior convictions, and risk factors that the system is legally required to consider?

Over-representation is not the same as over-policing

New Zealand Police do not patrol by ethnicity; they patrol where crime is reported. Higher police contact reflects higher rates of victimisation and offending in particular communities — facts repeatedly confirmed by victim surveys, not just police data. Māori are also disproportionately the victims of violent crime, a reality largely absent from the series.

When like cases between Maori and Non-Maori are compared for offence severity, criminal history, and breach behaviour, many of the claimed disparities in charging and sentencing narrow significantly. Courts must assess criminal history, public safety risk, reoffending risk, and whether home detention is appropriate - not ancestry (whakapapa).

To imply that judges, police, and prosecutors collectively operate a racially biased “pipeline” is a serious allegation, yet the series provides assertion in place of proof.

Bail and remand: risk, not race

The rise in remand numbers is real — and deeply concerning. But again, ethnicity is not the causal lever.

Remand decisions are driven by risk: risk of reoffending, risk of flight, risk of witness interference. Those risks rise sharply with repeat offending, breaches of bail, unstable housing, and substance abuse — all factors the courts must consider to protect victims and the public.

Calling bail laws “punitive” ignores why they were tightened in the first place: preventable violent offences committed by people already before the courts. Public safety is not a colonial construct; it is a core duty of the state.

Cases of extreme delay are unacceptable — but they are failures of court capacity and procedure, not evidence of racial targeting. A justice system that cannot deliver timely trials is unjust to everyone.

Culture cannot replace accountability

The series repeatedly argues that justice reform must reflect tikanga Māori and Te Tiriti obligations. But New Zealand’s justice system exists to uphold equal citizenship under one law, not parallel legal frameworks based on ancestry.

Equity is needs-based and universal. Tikanga (Maori Lore) is cultural and particular. Confusing the two risks undermining both.

There is nothing unjust about culturally appropriate support within prisons or during reintegration. But culture cannot explain away offending, nor can it substitute for accountability. A justice system that treats people differently based on ethnicity — whether harsher or more lenient — ceases to be just.

The real drivers are upstream

If we are serious about reducing imprisonment, the focus must shift upstream: early childhood neglect, school failure, addiction, violence in the home, and chronic welfare dependency. These are not justice system failures — they are social failures that manifest in the justice system.

Blaming courts and police may be politically attractive, but it does nothing to reduce victimisation or reoffending.

Reform needs realism, not rhetoric

New Zealand does need justice reform — faster courts, better rehabilitation, safer prisons, and more effective reintegration. But reform grounded in grievance narratives rather than evidence will fail the very communities it claims to protect.

Justice is not a Māori issue or a Pākehā issue. It is a public issue.

And a system that abandons equal treatment under the law in pursuit of ethnic outcomes is not reform — it is retreat.

Geoff Parker is a long-standing advocate for truth, equal rights, and equality before the law.