Reform is the most right-wing party Britain has had since the BNP contested the 2010 election, and it has led in every single poll since April of 2025. Over the last six months or so, 30% of prospective voters have said they would back Reform — about 10 points more than have said they would back Labour, the next most popular party.
However, closer scrutiny suggests that the Rightward shift is overstated. The chart below plots the combined poll share for Reform and the Conservatives in every poll since the last election. While the Right-wing share did rise in the months after the election, it has remained basically constant at around 48% since January of 2025.
Click image to view - Author’s analysis. Data from here.
The initial rise following the election could be taken as evidence for a Rightward shift. However, this turns out to be very common in both the UK and Europe: incumbent parties typically see their poll share fall in the months after winning an election, a phenomenon dubbed ‘thermostatic electorates’. It is less indicative of a major shift in opinion than of disappointment with the party of government.
What is more, the average Right-wing poll share that has prevailed for the past year (48%) is almost exactly equal to the combined vote share of UKIP and the Conservatives at the 2015 election (49%). Which seems to suggest that the British electorate isn’t substantially more right-wing than it was in 2015 — over a decade ago. In fact, YouGov’s Left–Right placement tracker shows little change since 2019.
On the other hand, Reform is further Right than the Conservatives, so one could argue the electorate has shifted Right given that a greater fraction of the Right-leaning half of the electorate now supports the more Right-wing of the two Right-wing parties. Plus, the share of Britons who identify as “very” or “fairly” right-wing has increased by 3 points, which isn’t nothing.
The problem with this argument is that the same thing is true on the Left. The Greens are further to the Left than Labour, so a greater fraction of the Left-leaning half of the electorate now supports the most Left-wing of the three Left-wing parties. (The Greens are currently polling in the mid teens, higher than the Lib Dems.) And the share of Britons who identify as “very” or “fairly” left-wing has also increased by 3 points.
Rather than Britain having shifted decisively to the Right, there has simply been a collapse in support for the two establishment parties, coinciding with rise of Reform on the Right and the Greens on the Left.
Of course, Britain’s first-past-the-post system still gives the edge to Reform, as the single largest party in terms of poll share (though this could be reduced through progressive tactical voting). Going from 5 seats at the last election to leading in the polls is an impressive feat from Nigel Farage’s Party, but the Left in Britain hasn’t gone away.
Dr Noah Carl is an independent researcher and writer who holds a PhD in Sociology. This article was sourced HERE
The initial rise following the election could be taken as evidence for a Rightward shift. However, this turns out to be very common in both the UK and Europe: incumbent parties typically see their poll share fall in the months after winning an election, a phenomenon dubbed ‘thermostatic electorates’. It is less indicative of a major shift in opinion than of disappointment with the party of government.
What is more, the average Right-wing poll share that has prevailed for the past year (48%) is almost exactly equal to the combined vote share of UKIP and the Conservatives at the 2015 election (49%). Which seems to suggest that the British electorate isn’t substantially more right-wing than it was in 2015 — over a decade ago. In fact, YouGov’s Left–Right placement tracker shows little change since 2019.
On the other hand, Reform is further Right than the Conservatives, so one could argue the electorate has shifted Right given that a greater fraction of the Right-leaning half of the electorate now supports the more Right-wing of the two Right-wing parties. Plus, the share of Britons who identify as “very” or “fairly” right-wing has increased by 3 points, which isn’t nothing.
The problem with this argument is that the same thing is true on the Left. The Greens are further to the Left than Labour, so a greater fraction of the Left-leaning half of the electorate now supports the most Left-wing of the three Left-wing parties. (The Greens are currently polling in the mid teens, higher than the Lib Dems.) And the share of Britons who identify as “very” or “fairly” left-wing has also increased by 3 points.
Rather than Britain having shifted decisively to the Right, there has simply been a collapse in support for the two establishment parties, coinciding with rise of Reform on the Right and the Greens on the Left.
Of course, Britain’s first-past-the-post system still gives the edge to Reform, as the single largest party in terms of poll share (though this could be reduced through progressive tactical voting). Going from 5 seats at the last election to leading in the polls is an impressive feat from Nigel Farage’s Party, but the Left in Britain hasn’t gone away.
Dr Noah Carl is an independent researcher and writer who holds a PhD in Sociology. This article was sourced HERE
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