Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Is the coalition really in crisis?

Look, I’m not as excited about the Winston Peters-Chris Luxon emails meeting as clearly some people are.

I mean, there are people predicting the collapse of the coalition as a result of this and others describing it as a coalition in crisis.

Honestly, though, to me this just feels like a bit of flexing by the National Party, a bit of flexing by New Zealand First and a little steam being let off.

That’s not to downplay what Winston has done. This is out-and-out bad behaviour from him. By releasing those emails - showing Chris Luxon wanted to support the US strikes on Iran in a more full-throated way than Winston Peters did - he knew exactly what he was doing.

Winston has been around long enough to know that this would embarrass Luxon, given that opinion polls suggest the vast majority of the country does not support those strikes. It would also embarrass him to have it revealed that he was overruled by his Foreign Minister.

On top of that, releasing those emails without first checking with Luxon’s office is a no-no, and not redacting Luxon’s comments is extremely unusual. Undermining your Prime Minister like that warrants a telling-off and Winston deserved the one he got when Chris Luxon marched down to his office.

But do I think this is the beginning of the end for the coalition? Not at all - at least not yet. And I say “not yet” only because it’s Winston and anything can happen.

Up to now - including this - it just looks like trademark Winston politics. He’s been poking National all term and he knows it wins him votes if he makes it look like he’s the one calling the shots.

I also suspect he’s getting a little annoyed that National has started attacking him more openly, especially in the past week. As recently as yesterday, Nicola Willis publicly told off Shane Jones over the butter chicken remark

I think the release of those emails was, in part, a warning shot to National to pull its head in.

But I don’t think it’s anything more than that. Winston knows instability loses votes and he can only push things so far. If he’s serious about sticking with the coalition through to the election in November, then he also knows he needs to make it look stable right now.

So no - this isn’t a crisis. It’s just a game.

Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show.