Now, it sounds like both contenders, or at least both people who thought they were contenders, Erica Stanford and Chris Bishop, were reasonably confident they had the numbers to roll Luxon yesterday afternoon.
But then things swung Luxon's way early in the evening. About 8pm, I got a text suggesting the coup was falling apart and Luxon was shoring up his numbers. The people who had defected from him were defecting back to him.
By this morning, the confidence had shifted back to Luxon's camp. It looks like, if I can put this really simply, the coup fell apart because of egos.
Neither Chris Bishop nor Erica Stanford was prepared to go second on the ticket. They needed to work together if they wanted the numbers. They needed to coalesce around one candidate but they couldn't because both wanted to be leader.
So, in the end, neither of them became leader.
Now, I can't say the caucus has made the wrong call by backing Chris Luxon because, as I said, either choice was risky and difficult.
But the situation the National Party finds itself in is the worst of all worlds. For a second time, the party has signalled to the country that it does not fully back its leader, and then left him there to do the job anyway.
No one is going to believe the false show of unity that saw them standing behind Chris Luxon for 75 seconds while he told us his caucus was unified. It doesn't take three hours in a caucus room to establish unity. It takes five minutes.
Three hours is what it looks like when there isn't enough unity.
The people behind this coup, and this time it appears to be Erica Stanford rather than Chris Bishop, should reflect on what they've done. They have effectively blown the arms and legs off their Prime Minister, then pushed him out there to try to win the election for them again because they couldn't get past their own egos long enough to execute a coup properly.
There's only one thing worse than a coup against a Prime Minister, and that's a failed coup. You do all the damage and end up with nothing shiny and new to show for it.
This is going to hurt National. Mark my words, this is going to hurt National.
The party will probably bleed votes to its coalition partners in the next three months. I'm still not convinced it will cost National the election but it certainly makes that outcome more likely.
They only have themselves to blame for what comes next.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and radio broadcaster who hosts Newstalk ZB's weekday Drive-Time Show – where this article was sourced.
11 comments:
The inescapable conclusions of coup 3, half cooked or not, are;
1. The loss of Chris Penk is a blow to the government and to National. He was conspicuously competent, something there is not a whole lot of in National and he wasn't in the game for the money, unlike many. But working under a turkey for a driven personality was probably not worth the aggro.
2. Luxon has finally demonstrated he stands for something. To have the title "Prime Minister" in front of his name.
3. Luxon is more or less permanently seen as a liability by many of his colleagues so much so and in desperation, that ridding the party of him 3 months out from an election was better than leaving him there because they just know he will bungle, stuff up and do more damage to the government in place than a leadership coup.
4. That Luxon remains one of the best performing opposition assets, hands down, almost a plant by the left, and it's only his sheer overinflated ego, inability to read a room and zero political radar that means he thinks he is the man for the job. Knowing almost half your caucus prefer you are run over by a bus is not exactly unanimous in the way he's like us to think, now is it?
What a truly slow motion train wreck National have become.
A very solid MP has been lost in this mess - Penk will be missed.
If this is true, whomever is behind the coup should be kicked out of cabinet and not stand for re-election.
Luxon couldn’t even stare down a racist foreign minister! He’s toast, it will just be a slower death than the mercy he was offered yesterday.
"Luxon couldn’t even stare down a racist foreign minister! He’s toast, it will just be a slower death than the mercy he was offered yesterday." Even worse, he cannot identify racism because he is so woke. Peter's comment was referring to the communist system of government in China and wasn't intentionally racist. It wasn't a smart thing to say, but it racism has a specific intent and he didn't have it. Country of origin and race and two distinct categories.
The competent hard working good guy of Chris Penk being thrown out whilst the motley pirate crew stay on is symbolic of the brain drain. Our best students don't want to work for NZ bosses, like Lux, who have no knowledge of the technical side of the firm. The world has moved on from comms, marketing and PR types as manager bosses, who are only good at shoring up their own numbers to keep their jobs. The tech industry long ago led the backlash. Techs run silicon valley, not Lux and Ardern types. I've been told by a sitting Nat front bench cabinet minister that top talent like Bridges left because he could not stand working for Lux. The National Party is no political party. Its a corporation with a CEO, MPs are his employees & you do what you're told to do or you're out. Nice place to work.
All points to a post-election Penk PM.... dunnit?
The reason for the attempted coup is that Luxon could not keep his foot out of his mouth, and there were concerns that he would do badly in a leader's debate.
Look on the bright side. Maybe this has drawn a line under previous gaffes and if Luxon now does a Hipkins and says little or nothing from now until election day then National might hold its 30%.
Memo. The blame, if that is the correct word, falls at John Key’s door. How so. Luxon was originally promoted into the National party as a John Key protĆ©gĆ©. Key and Luxon were comrades at Air NZ. Key was a board member while Luxon was CEO. Go figure. Luxon’s hands are tied now. He can’t sack any more cabinet ministers.
Coalition of chaos
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