At 9:30am, any member of National's caucus can call a no-confidence vote in Luxon's leadership.
The party's constitution calls these guys the Parliamentary Section.
They vote. It's majority rules. If there's a vacancy, i.e. if Luxon is goneburger, then they elect a new leader or leaders.
It's majority rules. So if a majority of MPs want change, then Luxon is gone.
History tells us most leaders would do the honourable thing and stand aside before it gets to this point.
Bolger did it when Shipley led a coup.
Luxon would be no different.
It's possible this could happen before 9:30am.
We could see the PM resign as leader of National ahead of caucus, and effectively as PM in a matter of hours.
If the numbers are not in his favour, the writing's on the wall, he could clear the decks for the caucus to focus on electing his replacement.
I've been speaking to National party MPs and former MPs over the past two weeks.
Some are furious with Luxon's leadership. Own goals. Foot-in-mouth disease. Lack of discipline.
There's a feeling that Key and others in the party have been covering for Luxon's mistakes, hammering the message that any change will mean catastrophe come polling day.
Talk of a Stanford/Mitchell ticket with Bishop as Finance tells you that unlike last time, the leadership hopefuls have organised with a viable alternative - notably excluding Nicola Willis.
Anyone who tells you they know what will happen today is making it up.
As much as 25% of the caucus are set to lose their jobs on current polling,.
If Luxon loses his today, it will be a gamble, a roll of the dice, a risk.
If they stick with Luxon, how can you credibly say you're unified behind your leader after two spills in four months?
Leaders confident in their support don't need to call confidence votes in themselves.
Ryan Bridge is a New Zealand broadcaster who has worked on many current affairs television and radio shows. He currently hosts Newstalk ZB's Early Edition - where this article was sourced.
5 comments:
If you are the MP's on death row you will vote for change and if that is 25% it's over for Luxon.
That Luxons leadership is a issue still this close to an election is for National, simply unforgivable.
This hideous mess speaks volumes of how disjointed and amateur National as a political party have become. Their number one mistake was ditching Simon Bridges and ever since have become a rolling mess of leadership flops and damage.
National scraped in, in 2023 in spite of Luxon, not because of him. Labour were so bad by then, a shaved chimp could have led National, but not now.
His complete lack of an opinion or standing for anything means he's going to be a walking disaster trying to sell a message he has no interest in nor knowledge of.
Luxon may have been a CEO but he is not and never will be a Prime Minister.
If he remains, this mess will spread. His caucus largely have no time for him. He will continue to say dumb things. He is a liability.
Oddly, his greatest strength is clinging on, unwanted, disrespected, cringe worthy, and blind to the room. He will limp on either to be voted out at the election or disposed of shortly after, should they survive.
Whatever happens today, Luxon, his time in politics is finished.
So looks like they haven't organized and Luxon is still PM. All the agitator have done is undermine Nationals campaign without achieving any changes for the positive. Bunch of unprofessional numpties.
Ryan, if this episode teaches us anything, it's that the National caucus is actually far smarter than the general commentariat. If the media promote a particular message long enough and loud enough, sooner or later all of us start believing it. That displays a weakness that thankfully National doesn't suffer from. I share everyone's disgust at how National have been too fearful to dismantle woke stupidity. But they won't be able to stem the tide for too much longer. Luxon's post-election successor will see to that.
Pete said “Ditching Simon Bridges was a mistake”
Too bloody right. Simon had courage and humanity.
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