Perhaps Luxon knows something they don’t.
Political parties commission much more sophisticated polling that reveals who their supporters are and what might change their minds.
When I led ACT, all the New Zealand polling companies were already contracted. We were forced to commission an American company. They were far better than any New Zealand pollster.
National employs Britain’s Sancrox Political Advisory. Luxon says he only looks at the party’s internal polls that have been analysed overseas using specialist skills.
I suspect National knows far more about TOP voters than Qiulae Wong does.
What we know from public polling is revealing.
A Talbot Mills poll in July found that 23% of TOP supporters had voted National in 2023, compared with 18% who had voted Labour.
A September Roy Morgan poll found TOP’s strongest support among younger men.
Any party relying on young men for support is in trouble. They are hard to enrol and even harder to get to vote.
Given TOP’s possible kingmaker role, I would be surprised if Sancrox Political Advisory had not conducted focus groups of intending TOP voters.
An experienced moderator asks questions like:
“Would you still vote TOP if Luxon ruled out a deal?”
Suppose former National voters say no, but former Labour voters say yes.
Suddenly Luxon’s stance makes sense.
National wins back voters while TOP retains former Labour voters.
When TOP fails to reach 5% and wins no electorate seat, its party votes do not count towards the allocation of seats.
What commentators regard as Luxon’s inexplicable political blunder could be a calculated election-winning strategy.
But then again, perhaps Luxon just doesn’t understand MMP.
The Honourable Richard Prebble CBE is a former member of the New Zealand Parliament. Initially a member of the Labour Party, he joined the newly formed ACT New Zealand party under Roger Douglas in 1996, becoming its leader from 1996 to 2004. This article was sourced HERE
National employs Britain’s Sancrox Political Advisory. Luxon says he only looks at the party’s internal polls that have been analysed overseas using specialist skills.
I suspect National knows far more about TOP voters than Qiulae Wong does.
What we know from public polling is revealing.
A Talbot Mills poll in July found that 23% of TOP supporters had voted National in 2023, compared with 18% who had voted Labour.
A September Roy Morgan poll found TOP’s strongest support among younger men.
Any party relying on young men for support is in trouble. They are hard to enrol and even harder to get to vote.
Given TOP’s possible kingmaker role, I would be surprised if Sancrox Political Advisory had not conducted focus groups of intending TOP voters.
An experienced moderator asks questions like:
“Would you still vote TOP if Luxon ruled out a deal?”
Suppose former National voters say no, but former Labour voters say yes.
Suddenly Luxon’s stance makes sense.
National wins back voters while TOP retains former Labour voters.
When TOP fails to reach 5% and wins no electorate seat, its party votes do not count towards the allocation of seats.
What commentators regard as Luxon’s inexplicable political blunder could be a calculated election-winning strategy.
But then again, perhaps Luxon just doesn’t understand MMP.
The Honourable Richard Prebble CBE is a former member of the New Zealand Parliament. Initially a member of the Labour Party, he joined the newly formed ACT New Zealand party under Roger Douglas in 1996, becoming its leader from 1996 to 2004. This article was sourced HERE
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