Anti-Climate Policy Revolt Rocks Europe As Dutch Farmers Rise Up
In this newsletter:
1) Arctic Ice Demise Deferred Again
Ron Cluz, Science Matters, 2 October 2019
2) ‘There Is No Climate Emergency,’ Hundreds Of Scientists & Engineers Tell U.N.
Valerie Richardson- The Washington Times, 29 September 2019
3) New Polar Bear Horror Peddled In Advice On Eco-Anxiety In Kids
Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, 29 September 2019
4) Anti-Climate Policy Revolt Rocks Europe As Dutch Farmers Rise Up
The Blaze, 1 October 2019
5) Anyone Remember Greta? German Ministries Fail To Agree Details Of Climate Deal – Sources
Reuters, 2 October 2019
6) Merkel's CDU Demands End To Renewables Subsidies
Recharge, 1 October 2019
7) Paul Homewood: Climate Emergency? Not Here, Not Now
The Conservative Woman, 30 September 2019
8) Net-Zero CO2 Emissions By 2050 Requires A New Nuclear Power Plant Every Day
Roger Pielke Jr., Forbes, 30 September 2019
Full details:
1) Arctic Ice Demise Deferred Again
Ron Cluz, Science Matters, 2 October 2019
Over the last 12 years, the Arctic ice minimum has not declined, and since 2007 looks like fluctuations around a plateau.
The graph shows the annual minimum September monthly average sea ice extent in NH from 2007 through 2019 according to two different data sets: Sea Ice Indiex (SII) from NOAA and Multisensor Analyzed Sea Ice Extent (MASIE) from NIC.. The chart begins with 2007 ending a decadal decline and beginning 12 years of fluctuations around a plateau. SII and MASIE give quite similar results for September, with SII slightly higher early on, and also showing more ice this year. The linear trendlines are flat for both indices with 2019 being similar to 2007.
MASIE daily results for September show 2019 early melting followed by an early stabilizing and refreezing.
Note that 2019 started the month about 800k km2 below the 12 year average (2007 through 2018 inclusive). There was little additional loss of ice, a rise then a dip below 4 M km2, and a sharp rise ending the month. Interestingly, 2019 matched the lowest year 2012 at the start, but ended the month well ahead of both 2012 and 2007.
Presently 2019 ice extent according to MASIE is 500k km2 (10%) below the 12 year average and 374k km2 more than 2007.. Most of the deficit to average is in East Siberian and Laptev seas, along with the Pacific seas of Beaufort and Chukchi. Other places are close to normal, with Central Arctic higher than average and much greater than 2007.
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2) ‘There Is No Climate Emergency,’ Hundreds Of Scientists & Engineers Tell U.N.
Valerie Richardson- The Washington Times, 29 September 2019
Lost amid the coverage of Swedish teen activist Greta Thunberg at last week’s U.N. Global Climate Summit were the 500 international scientists, engineers and other stakeholders sounding a very different message: “There is no climate emergency.”
The European Climate Declaration, spearheaded by the Amsterdam-based Climate Intelligence Foundation [CLINTEL], described the leading climate models as “unfit” and urged UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres to pursue a climate policy based on “sound science.”
Current climate policies pointlessly and grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, reliable electrical energy,” said the Sept. 23 letter signed by professionals from 23 countries.
Most of the signers hailed from Europe, but there were also scientists from the United States, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South America.
We urge you to follow a climate policy based on sound science, realistic economics and genuine concern for those harmed by costly but unnecessary attempts at mitigation,” the letter said.
The signers asked Mr. Guterres to place the declaration on the UN’s agenda for the meeting ending Monday—which hasn’t happened—and organize a meeting of scientists “on both sides of the climate debate early in 2020.”
The declaration was dismissed by Penn State climatologist Michael E. Mann, who called it “craven and stupid,” as well as the left-of-center [U.K.] Guardian, which said the document “repeats well-worn and long-debunked talking points on climate change that are contradicted by scientific institutions and academies around the world.”
At the same time, the sheer number of prominent signers with scientific and engineering credentials belied the contention that only a handful of fringe researchers and fossil-fuel shills oppose the climate-catastrophe “consensus.”
Full story
3) New Polar Bear Horror Peddled In Advice On Eco-Anxiety In Kids
Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, 29 September 2019
Unbelievably wrong: A psychologist has told parents to assure their children that rising sea levels might be an immediate threat to polar bears – but not to kids in the UK.
She says this is “putting things into perspective” for anxious kids but is horrifyingly and almost laughably far off the mark.
The amount of ignorance about polar bears from those who still consider the species an appropriate icon for catastrophic climate change never seems to end.
From the Mail on Sunday (28 September 2019), “As doctors warn of a surge in youngsters with eco-anxiety, MARINA FOGLE reveals how to stop Greta Thunberg and Co making your children sick with worry” [my bold]:
So what should we do when confronted by a child who is distressed by environmental concerns?
Child psychiatrist Dr Kathryn Hollins advises a frank discussion – because a desire to be more environmentally friendly is a positive thing. ‘Let them know they are not alone in having worries,’ she says. ‘Ask them what they are scared of and where they got these thoughts from.’
She says that reassurance will come from putting things into perspective. Rising sea levels might have an immediate effect on the lives of polar bears, but not on those living in the UK, she explains.”
Fact: Rising sea levels – the pitifully small amount that has happened since 1900 or predicted at 2100 – are in no way a threat to polar bears. Polar bears survived sea level changes of 100s of metres within the last 40,000 years along with unimaginable changes in sea ice extent.
Here’s a perspective based on fact rather than myth: polar bears are currently thriving and all scientific evidence shows they are not threatened by the amount of reduced summer sea ice they have experienced so far and are unlikely to be devastated if summer sea ice declines further.
My advice to parents: view the video below, buy this book for kids: “Polar Bear Facts & Myths” (available in English, French, Dutch, German, and Norwegian) and buy this book for yourselves: “The Polar Bear Catastrophe That Never Happened“.
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4) Anti-Climate Policy Revolt Rocks Europe As Dutch Farmers Rise Up
The Blaze, 1 October 2019
Farmers — tired of being blamed for climate change — drive tractor convoy to The Hague, causing record-breaking rush hour in the Netherlands
VINCENT JANNINK/AFP/Getty Images
Farmers in the Netherlands are ticked off over claims that they should be held responsible for nitrogen oxide emissions, so much so that police said 2,200 joined a convoy of tractors storming The Hague in protest on Tuesday.
Reuters reported that the agriculture activists caused “the worst morning commute in Dutch history.”
What are the details?
In the midst of the country’s efforts to curb carbon emissions to meet the government’s goals, members of the ruling party have floated a mandate for reducing the number of livestock farmers are allowed to raise — even suggesting cutting herds by 50 percent. Producers aren’t having it.
Fences and other barriers were toppled as the protestors made their way to their destination. While the vast majority of the caravan’s participants were peaceful — only three were arrested — the congregation took its time to be sure their presence was known by city-slickers. NPR reported that “more than 700 miles of traffic jams [were recorded] at the peak of rush hour, mostly due to the protest.”
“Suddenly, everyone is worried. We’re getting blamed and badly represented in the media, everyone is blaming us for climate change but planes are worse than farmers and no-one is talking about them,” a dairy farmer named Vincent told the BBC.
A plow on the front of one tractor read, “How dairy you.”
Farmers protest in the Hague -- Abdullah Asiran/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
Ten thousand farmers were expected to gather in protest at The Hague, NPR further reported, “to argue they are unfairly being blamed after a court ruling found the country is violating European emission rules.” Liberal politicians in the country are blaming livestock producers for pushing emissions over the edge.
Full story
5) Anyone Remember Greta? German Ministries Fail To Agree Details Of Climate Deal – Sources
Reuters, 2 October 2019
BERLIN — German ministries have failed to agree on a set of climate protection measures, government sources told Reuters on Wednesday, leaving little time to fulfil Chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan to pass the landmark package by the end of the year.
The disagreements between the environment, finance, economy and transport ministries could further erode the credibility of Merkel’s right-left coalition, weakened by regional election losses and infighting, and up for review by the end of the year.
The ministries have been unable to agree on the scale of measures to cut emissions of the greenhouse gases responsible for global warming. These are due to include raising car and air traffic taxes as well as increasing a road toll for trucks from 2023, said sources briefed on the talks.
The ministries are also at odds on how many tonnes of CO2 each of those measures will shave off Germany’s total emissions.
Merkel’s conservatives and their Social Democrat (SPD) coalition partners agreed a budget-neutral outline for the climate package last month, although environmental groups said it did not go far enough.
The government had wanted the details to be presented to cabinet on Wednesday. The delay means there are only 10 days left for the government to sign the package off in time to get it through parliament before the end of the year.
6) Merkel's CDU Demands End To Renewables Subsidies
Recharge, 1 October 2019
Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) in the wake of the introduction of a CO2 price on transport and heating plans to abolish support for new renewable installations under Germany’s Renewable Energies Act (EEG).
Financing renewables via a levy on top of consumers' power bills since 2000 had resulted in one of the world's fastest expansions of wind and solar power - with renewable sources meeting 44% of Germany's power needs during the first half of this year.
Party leaders in a 27-page strategy paper approved by the federal board of the CDU also demand to simultaneously reduce a tax on electricity.
“The goal is to completely abolish the EEG levy whilst safeguarding [existing installations] and to reduce the power tax to a European minimum,” the strategy paper approved on Monday states.
“The guiding principle of our energy system of the future shouldn’t be the support or ban of certain energy sources, but solely the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.”
The CDU leaders also demanded a technology-neutral approach to emission reduction, and said CO2-free electricity will increasingly become a primary energy source. But the paper didn’t state when EEG support should end, nor whether renewables should be supported through a different mechanism.
Full story
7) Paul Homewood: Climate Emergency? Not Here, Not Now
The Conservative Woman, 30 September 2019
Widespread claims that we are now living through a climate emergency or breakdown are just so much hot air.
Earlier this year, the UK Parliament declared a climate emergency. They are not the only ones: half of the UK’s principal local authorities have done the same.
Meanwhile the Committee on Climate Change claims that extreme weather events are increasing, and the head of the Environment Agency has stated that global warming is driving both more extreme weather and hotter, drier summers.
But where is the evidence for any of this? After all, it should be obvious by now if there really was such an emergency.
The Global Warming Policy Foundation has published a study, Plus ca Change – The UK climate in 2018. Using official Met Office data, it dismantles the idea that there is any climate breakdown. Indeed, it shows that the UK climate has barely changed over the last hundred years or more.
The report’s main findings include:
• Average temperatures have barely increased in the last twenty years.
• Temperature data provides no evidence that the climate will warm in the foreseeable future.
• Based on the Central England Temperature series (CET), the heatwaves in 1975 and 1976 were much more intense than last year’s. The hottest days in the series were in 1976 and 1990.
• According to the UK Met Office, the summer of 2018 tied as the hottest on record with 1976, 2003 and 2006. However, the CET ranks it only the fifth hottest, behind even 1826. This casts doubt on the Met Office calculations, which include a number of sites, such as Heathrow, which are artificially warmed by the Urban Heat Island effect.
• While daily temperature extremes are not rising at the top of the scale, extremely cold days have become much less common. In short, UK temperatures have become less extreme.
• Although average rainfall has increased in Scotland since the 1970s, in England and Wales long-term trends have changed little since the 19th century.
• There has also been little change in seasonal rainfall trends, making a nonsense of ‘wetter winters’ and ‘drier summers’ claims.
• There is no evidence that rainfall is becoming more extreme, whether decadally, annually, monthly or daily.
• Sea levels around the UK have been rising at a round 1.44mm a year since the end of the 19th century after allowing for vertical land movement. They have been rising no faster in recent years than in the early 20th century.
• Storms have not become more frequent or stronger.
Full post
8) Net-Zero CO2 Emissions By 2050 Requires A New Nuclear Power Plant Every Day
Roger Pielke Jr., Forbes, 30 September 2019
What makes achieving Net Zero by 2050 impossible is a failure to accurately understand the scale of the challenge and the absence of policy proposals that match that scale.
More than a decade ago, Gwyn Prins and Steve Rayner characterized climate policy as an “auction of promises” in which politicians “vied to outbid each other with proposed emissions targets that were simply not achievable.” For instance, among Democrats competing for the presidency in 2020, several, including Joe Biden, have committed to achieving net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Candidate Andrew Yang bid 2049, and Cory Booker topped that by offering 2045. Bernie Sanders has offered a 71% reduction by 2030.
One reason that we see this “auction of promises” is that the targets and timetables for emissions reductions are easy to state but difficult to comprehend. Here I’ll present what net-zero carbon dioxide emissions for 2050 actually means in terms of the rate of deployment of carbon-free energy and the coincident decommissioning of fossil fuel infrastructure.
To conduct this analysis I use the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, which presents data on global and national fossil fuel consumption in units called “million tons of oil equivalent” or mtoe. In 2018 the world consumed 11,865 mtoe in the form of coal, natural gas and petroleum. The combustion of these fossil fuels resulted in 33.7 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions. In order for those emissions to reach net-zero, we will have to replace about 12,000 mtoe of energy consumption expected for 2019. (I ignore so-called negative emissions technologies, which do not presently exist at scale.)
Another useful number to know is that there are 11,051 days left until January 1, 2050. To achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions globally by 2050 thus requires the deployment of >1 mtoe of carbon-free energy consumption (~12,000 mtoe/11,051 days) every day, starting tomorrow and continuing for the next 30+ years. Achieving net-zero also requires the corresponding equivalent decommissioning of more than 1 mtoe of energy consumption from fossil fuels every single day.
Another important number to consider is the expected increase in energy consumption in coming decades.
The International Energy Agency currently projects that global energy consumption will increase by about 1.25% per year to 2040. That rate of increase in energy consumption would mean that the world will require another ~5,800 mtoe of energy consumption by 2050, or about another 0.5 of an mtoe per day to 2050. That brings the total needed deployment level to achieve net-zero emissions to about 1.6 mtoe per day to 2050.
The concept of an mtoe is pretty hard for anyone to get their head around. So let’s put the mtoe into a more comprehensible unit, a nuclear power plant and specifically the Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Station in Homestead, Florida. The amount of energy reflected in 1 mtoe is approximated by that produced by the Turkey Point nuclear plant over a year.
So the math here is simple: to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050, the world would need to deploy 3 Turkey Point nuclear plants worth of carbon-free energy every two days, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050. At the same time, a Turkey Point nuclear plant worth of fossil fuels would need to be decommissioned every day, starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050.
I’ve found that some people don’t like the use of a nuclear power plant as a measuring stick. So we can substitute wind energy as a measuring stick. Net-zero carbon dioxide by 2050 would require the deployment of ~1500 wind turbines (2.5 MW) over ~300 square miles, every day starting tomorrow and continuing to 2050. The figure below illustrates the challenge.
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The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.
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