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Tuesday, February 9, 2021

GWPF Newsletter: Major blow for Biden as EU cosies up to China

 





EU goes soft on China in hopes of a climate ‘partnership’ as Western alliance disintegrates

In this newsletter:

1) Major blow for Biden as EU cosies up to China
Daily Express, 5 February 2021

2) EU goes soft on China in hopes of a climate ‘partnership’ as Western alliance disintegrates
Politico, 2 February 2021

 
3) Beijing jubilant: EU's policy towards China should be independent: Merkel, Macron
Xinhua News Agency, 6 February 2021

4) Global warming may have started before the Industrial Revolution, Chinese scientists discover
South China Morning Post, 7 February 2021

5) US Democrats fear ill wind from Biden’s climate policies in oil states
Financial Times, 8 February 2021
 
6) US Democrats' disunity on fracking & Keystone pipeline threatens to haunt Biden
Bloomberg, 5 February 2021
 
7) Why the Paris Agreement will be another super-flop
GWPF & Power Engineering, 5 February 2021
 
8) Dominic Lawson: It’s sheer madness to import the coal essential for our steel industry when we can produce it ourselves
Daily Mail, 8 February 2021
 
9) Western alliance in disarray as EU threatens Australia with carbon border tax
The New Daily, 8 February 2021
 
10) Study disputes that Earth is in a ‘climate emergency’
James Delingpole, Breitbart, 7 February 2021
 
11) Green jobs go to China as number of people employed in German renewables sector has halved since 2011
Clean Energy Wire, 4 February 2021

Full details:

1) Major blow for Biden as EU cosies up to China
Daily Express, 5 February 2021

Emmanuel Macron has warned new US President Joe Biden he cannot rely on the support of the European Union when it comes to China in an indication that the bloc is ready to cosy up to Beijing.


 
Mr Biden, who officially took office on January 20, is keen to revive traditional alliances including those with European countries, with the European Commission – led by President Ursula von der Leyen – last year publishing a paper entitled A new EU-US agenda for global change. However, France’s President suggested the bloc should resist the temptation to take sides.
 
“This one, for me, is counterproductive.”
 
Mr Macron claimed such an approach would merely antagonise China, led by President Xi Jinping, prompting in a reduction on cooperation on issues such as climate change, as well fuelling more aggressive behaviour in the disputed South China Sea.

Mr Macron added: “As the US is reengaging itself, what will be the behaviour of China?”

Characterising China as a “partner, competitor and systemic rival”, he stressed: “I think we have to engage China in a bold and efficient climate agenda.
 
“And I think the reengagement of the US is a good occasion, as well, to have a proactive and – a discussion on that.”

Full story
 
2) EU goes soft on China in hopes of a climate ‘partnership’ as Western alliance disintegrates
Politico, 2 February 2021
 
The EU is proclaiming a “good partnership” with China on climate issues, made smoother by avoiding mention of the country’s human rights record.





 








It’s not so easy for the U.S., which was slapped down by China last week as it tried to pursue a climate agenda while also denouncing China’s “genocide” against its Uighur Muslim minority.
 
EU Green Deal chief Frans Timmermans held a videoconference with Chinese Vice Premier Han Zheng Monday — the first in a planned series of high-level meetings between the world’s first and third-largest greenhouse gas polluters. Timmermans did not use the chance to raise concerns about human rights with one of the seven members in the Politburo Standing Committee, China’s paramount political body, his spokesperson said.
 
Instead, the chat was heavy on atmospherics.
 
Timmermans caught Han up on this year’s plans to roll out the European Green Deal, aiming at the bloc becoming climate neutral by 2050. Hanfilled in Timmermans on China’s upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan, the first steps of China’s effort to reach net zero emissions by 2060.
 
After the meeting, Timmermans said the pair had “laid the foundations for a good partnership” that will continue ahead of the COP26 U.N. climate talks in November. Before then, the EU wants China to commit to cutting its emissions faster over the next decade and stop building new coal plants at home and abroad.
 
Chinese state outlet Xinhua reported that Han wanted to make “climate pragmatic cooperation” central to Beijing’s relationship with the EU.
 
The EU is treading carefully. In addition to human rights, Timmermans avoided the potentially fraught subject of the EU’s plan to raise a carbon border tariff on imports — something meant to penalize companies producing in regions with laxer climate rules. Privately, some European officials say they hope these climate dialogues can be sealed off from broader trade and foreign policy disputes with Beijing.

Full story
 
3) Beijing jubilant: EU's policy towards China should be independent: Merkel, Macron
Xinhua News Agency, 6 February 2021
   
The European Union (EU) should maintain its strategic autonomy and has its own policy towards China, said French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday, as Washington is pushing for a common U.S.-EU policy.
 
"We have already made a step in this direction with the investment agreement with China. I think the EU should have its own policy vis-a-vis China," said Merkel at a joint press conference with Macron following an online meeting of the French-German Defence and Security Council.
 
The two leaders made the remarks when asked to comment on U.S. President Joe Biden's first foreign policy speech, in which he called China his country's "most serious competitor."

The EU policy towards China should "take into consideration points of accord with the U.S.," but "despite this, there are numerous reasons, such as the fight against climate change and other themes, that push us to work with China, notably for the reinforcement of multilateralism," said the German chancellor.
 
"And I think the decoupling, especially at the digital era, is not a good idea," she added.
 
For his part, the French president said European sovereignty means "the power to decide our choice by ourselves and not to be in a strategy of alignment with anyone."
 
Full post
 
4) Global warming may have started before the Industrial Revolution, Chinese scientists discover
South China Morning Post, 7 February 2021

Studies of coral reefs in the Paracel Islands suggest that the South China Sea started warming up in 1825, at the start of the industrial revolution, according to a study by Chinese scientists.
 

The Chinese team collected coral reef samples from Yongle (pictured) and Yongxing in the Paracel Islands. Xinhua
 
That was the year the world’s first railway began operating in England and most ocean-going ships still used wind power.
 
Man-made carbon dioxide emissions could not fully explain such an early rise in the warming trend, they said in a peer-reviewed paper published in Quaternary Sciences on Friday.
 
The Paracel coral record “will fill in some important gaps in global high resolution marine environment records and help us better understand the history of environmental change in tropical waters”, said the researchers, led by Tao Shichen from the South China Sea Institute of Oceanology.
 
Coral reefs provide useful climate records because the higher the temperature the faster they grow. The Paracels have one of the largest living reefs in the Asia-Pacific region, but in recent decades the archipelago has become the focal point of territorial disputes between China and Vietnam, and the construction of infrastructure has threatened the natural environment.
 
The researchers studied four coral reef samples retrieved from Yongxing and Yongle, two of the largest islands in the Paracels and both controlled by China’s military. The samples were drilled from locations that have been continuously underwater and suffered minimal disturbance as a result of human activity.

With the help of uranium dating technology, the researchers found the samples contained a continuous climate record going back to 1520. To ensure the accuracy of the results, parts of the samples were also sent to a laboratory in Queensland, Australia for independent analysis.

The results showed that the temperature 500 years ago was lower than it is today. The cooling trend lasted until 1825. From that date to the present, there was “a general trend of rapid increase” with the biggest spike reaching 2.3 degrees Celsius, Tao said. […]

Dating the start of climate change could have some real-life implications, according to a Chinese government climate expert who was not involved in the Paracel study.
The current goal of the Paris Agreement is to keep the temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius by mid-century. The goal was calculated based on the assumption that the warming started from the end of the 19th century.

“If it started earlier than thought, we may need to move the deadline earlier. This may cause some confusion and inconvenience,” said the expert, who asked not to be named due to the political sensitivity of the issue.

Full story

5) US Democrats fear ill wind from Biden’s climate policies in oil states
Financial Times, 8 February 2021

Prospect of electoral backlash in Texas and New Mexico over president’s drilling moratorium

US President Joe Biden’s moratorium on drilling on federal lands has prompted lawmakers within his own party to warn that the policy threatens jobs and local budgets in states dependent on fossil fuels.

The opposition in states such as Texas and New Mexico presages what is likely to be a big issue in the 2022 midterm elections, where Democrats will have to defend or contest seats in moderate congressional districts that rely on oil and gas.

It is also an early test of the Biden administration’s ability to square the demands of moderate Democrats, on whom it depends for its slim majority in the House and Senate, with those of progressives who want quick action on climate change.

In his first week in office, Biden ordered the suspension of leases for fossil fuel development on federal lands and offshore waters, and a “rigorous review” of leasing and permitting practices. He also created a civilian “climate corps”, directed federal agencies to procure American-made zero-emissions vehicles for their fleets, and scrapped a permit for the Keystone XL oil pipeline. Biden asked Congress to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies.

While the initiatives pleased environmentalists, they worried Democratic members of Congress from around the Permian, the world’s most prolific oilfield, in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

Four Democratic House members from Texas wrote to the new president declaring: “Now is not the time to jeopardise American jobs, or the critical tax and royalty revenues that federal leases generate for local, state, and federal government that need funds now.”

Vicente González, who was re-elected in his western Texas district by the narrowest margin last year, warned that the executive order would “hurt an already suffering community”.

On Thursday, New Mexico’s two Democratic senators, along with the Democratic senators of Colorado, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Montana, joined Republican senators to vote 57-43 for an amendment to block any new regulations from the White House or Environmental Protection Agency to ban fracking, something Biden has insisted he has no intention of doing.

A permanent suspension of new oil and gas leasing on federal lands would hit New Mexico particularly hard, local officials and industry representatives say. The state has gone from producing 60m to 300m barrels of oil a year in the past decade, and more than 50 per cent of the state’s oil production comes from federal lands. Across the US, federal lands and waters account for just 25 per cent of total US oil production.
 
Full story
 
6) US Democrats' disunity on fracking & Keystone pipeline threatens to haunt Biden
Bloomberg, 5 February 2021

The Senate cleared a key hurdle toward passing President Joe Biden’s stimulus plan after 15 hours and 41 roll call votes on amendments that will ultimately have little bearing on the final legislation but could signal problems for the new administration.

Seven Democrats, for example, voted with Republicans to oppose any ban on fracking. And two voted in favor of the Keystone XL oil pipeline weeks after Biden revoked its presidential permit -- potential warning signs as Democrats prepare a package on climate change legislation.

While the non-binding amendments have no official influence on how lawmakers write the bills, they underscored division among Democrats in the chamber they now control with a 50-50 party split that gives them no votes to spare. [...]
 
Fracking Vote Shows Tough Road for Climate Agenda
 
The Senate voted to block a fracking ban, underscoring the difficulty Democrats will have pushing ambitious climate legislation through the chamber. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has vowed to make climate legislation one of the chamber’s top priorities and has said he would “compel the Senate forcefully, relentlessly and urgently to address” the issue as Biden seeks to make good on plans to rid the electricity sector of carbon emissions by 2035 and make the entire economy carbon neutral by 2050. Seven Democrats joined with the chamber’s Republicans to support the measure, but it was one of the amendments stripped out before the final resolution was adopted by the chamber. Although Biden has said he does not support a nationwide ban on fracking, the votes reflect Democratic support for oil and gas development and illustrate the political obstacles to aggressive climate legislation that curbs fossil fuels.
 
Several Democrats Buck Biden on Keystone Pipeline
 
Schumer also stripped out an amendment backing the Keystone XL pipeline, putting some moderate Democrats at odds with the White House. The Senate adopted the measure with the support of all Republicans and two Democrats -- Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Jon Tester of Montana. The vote was effectively a rebuke of Biden’s Jan. 20 decision to yank a permit for the TC Energy Corp. project. The Senate blocked a measure that would oppose a carbon tax on a 50-50 party-line vote. The votes indicate high political hurdles to a clean energy standard mandating the use of renewable energy, said Kevin Book, managing director of research firm ClearView Energy Partners. To pass more ambitious climate policies, including a tax on carbon, Democrats “would probably need at least two to four more seats” from states that aren’t producing a bevy of coal, oil or gas, Book said.
 
Full story
 
7) Why the Paris Agreement will be another super-flop
GWPF & Power Engineering, 5 February 2021

Of the top 20 global CO2 emitters, not a single one is hitting its climate goals as outlined under the Paris Agreement, according to data from the Climate Action Tracker.





 







G20 policies insufficient to meet Paris climate goals
Power Engineering International, 5 February 2021

With just nine months to go until the critical next round of international climate talks, the G20 countries, world’s largest economies are far from having the right climate policies in place to meet the green pledges made at the COP21 climate conference in Paris in 2015, let alone bolder new promises to decarbonise, according to new research from BloombergNEF (BNEF).

BNEF’s G20 Zero-Carbon Policy Scoreboard evaluates the G20 countries’ decarbonisation policies to measure which governments have implemented regimes to realise the goals of the Paris Agreement, or more substantial decarbonization. It highlights examples of what works and could be replicated elsewhere, and flags where more progress is needed.  

Victoria Cuming, head of global policy analysis for BNEF, said: “The high-level pledges over the last year, in particular, have been impressive with major economies such as the European Union, Japan, South Korea and China all promising to get to ‘net-zero’ emissions or carbon neutrality at some future date.
 
“But the reality is that countries simply haven’t done enough at home with follow-through policies to meet even the promises made more than five years ago.”





 









 
8) Dominic Lawson: It’s sheer madness to import the coal essential for our steel industry when we can produce it ourselves
Daily Mail, 8 February 2021

There is a real political problem for the Prime Minister, simultaneously committed both to addressing the concerns of such ‘left-behind’ parts of the country and to move Britain away from the ‘high-carbon’ manufacturing methods that have been at the heart of the Northern and Midlands economy.
 
Britain’s first new deep coal mine in over 30 years is situated in the Cumbrian constituency of Copeland. Pictured: An artist’s impression of the Woodhouse Colliery
Political civil war has broken out in the Johnson family — and not for the first time.

The Prime Minister’s father, 80-year-old Stanley, has denounced the Government’s decision not to block the construction of Woodhouse Colliery, Britain’s first new deep coal mine in over 30 years.

Last week, Johnson Sr pronounced this to be ‘a massive mistake . . . How can we ask other countries to bring in their climate change reduction programmes when we are reopening the whole coal argument here?’

Stanley, who in 2019 praised the Extinction Rebellion protesters then bringing the centre of London to a standstill, was speaking in his capacity as ‘international ambassador of the Conservative Environment Network’, the role in which he will be attending the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow in November.
In fact, the UK has been assiduous in eliminating coal from domestically produced energy. 

But this new mine — in the Cumbrian constituency of Copeland — is not for ‘thermal’ use in power stations. It is coking coal, for indispensable use in the blast furnaces of what remains of the British steel industry.
 
Full post
 
9) Western alliance in disarray as EU threatens Australia with carbon border tax
The New Daily, 8 February 2021

Australia’s free ride (sic) on climate change is set to end, with the European Union taking the first step to introduce a cross border carbon tax.

The European Parliament gave the nod to the move on Friday, which means Australian products entering the EU will be hit by a tariff to make up for the fact Australia has no price on carbon.

“It would be a major blow for the Australian government both economically and diplomatically,” said John Quiggin, economics professor at the University of Queensland.
 
The move has been on the international agenda for some time and has been taken increasingly seriously since Australia dropped its carbon tax in 2014 following the election of the Abbott government.
 
“It has been talked about a lot in recent years and the election of [US President] Joe Biden means there is a renewed focus on climate policy around the globe,” said Scott Hamilton, consultant to the Smart Energy Council.
 
Full story
 
10) Study disputes that Earth is in a ‘climate emergency’
James Delingpole, Breitbart, 7 February 2021
 
There is no “climate emergency”, according to a study for the Global Warming Policy Foundation by independent scientist Dr Indur Goklany.





 






Goklany concludes:

While climate may have changed for the warmer:
 
• Most extreme weather phenomena have not become more extreme, more deadly, or more destructive
 
• Empirical evidence directly contradicts claims that increased carbon dioxide has reduced human wellbeing. In fact, human wellbeing has never been higher
 
• Whatever detrimental effects warming and higher carbon dioxide may have had on terrestrial species and ecosystems, they have been swamped by the contribution of fossil fuels to increased biological productivity. This has halted, and turned around, reductions in habitat loss
 
The report will make hugely depressing reading for all the prominent environmental activists — from the Pope and Doom Goblin Greta Thunberg to the Great Reset’s Klaus Schwab — who have been pushing the “climate emergency” narrative. It is an article of faith for the globalist elite and their useful idiots in the media, in politics, in business, and the entertainment that the world is on course for climate disaster which only radical and costly international action can prevent.
 
But Goklany’s report — Impacts of Climate Change: Perception & Reality — claims there is little if any evidence to support the scare narrative.
 
At the end, Goklany provides a table, setting out all the scaremongering claims made by environmental groups — and then comparing them with observed reality. Only one of the claims stands up, according to the study — weather has been getting slightly warmer:

More hot days and fewer cold days — Yes
 
Cyclones/hurricanes more intense or frequent — No
 
Tornadoes increase and become more intense — No
 
Floods more frequent and more intense — No
 
Droughts more frequent and intense — No
 
Area burned by wildfire increasing — No (area peaked in mid-19th century)
 
Cereal yields decreasing — No (they have tripled since 1961)
 
Food supplies per capita decreasing — No (increased 31 per cent since 1961)
 
Land area and beaches shrinking, coral islands submerged — No. (Marginal expansion)
 
None of the doom-mongering claims made about a decline in human welfare stands up, either, according to the study.
 
Access to cleaner water has increased; mortality from ‘Extreme Weather Events’ has declined by 99 per cent since the 1920s; fewer people are dying from heat; death rates from climate-sensitive diseases like malaria and diarrhoea have decreased (since 1900 malaria death rates have declined 96 per cent); hunger rates have declined; poverty has declined (GDP per capita has quadrupled since 1950 even as CO2 levels have sextupled); life expectancy has more than doubled since the start of industrialisation; health adjusted life expectancy has increased; global inequality has decreased in terms of incomes, life expectancies and access to modern-day amenities; the earth is green and more productive; habitat lost to agriculture has peaked due to fossil fuel dependent technologies.
 
It will be hard for green activists to dismiss Goklany as a “denier”. His credentials as a climate expert are impeccable. He was a member of the U.S. delegation that established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and helped develop its First Assessment Report. He subsequently served as a U.S. delegate to the IPCC, and as an IPCC reviewer.
 
Goklany says:

"Almost everywhere you look, climate change is having only small, and often benign, impacts. The impact of extreme weather events ― hurricanes, tornadoes, floods and droughts ― are, if anything, declining. Economic damages have declined as a fraction of global GDP. Death rates from such events have declined by 99% since the 1920s. Climate-related disease has collapsed. And more people die from cold than warm temperatures."
 
Even sea-level rise — predicted to be the most damaging impact of global warming — seems to be much less of a problem than thought, according to to the study’s findings.
 
Full story

11) Green jobs go to China as number of people employed in German renewables sector has halved since 2011
Clean Energy Wire, 4 February 2021

The number of jobs in the German renewables sector (production and installation) has fallen from about 300,000 in 2011 to around 150,000 in 2018, the German Trade Union Association (DGB) found in an analysis of employment in the energy transition.

The drop in employment is mostly due to the collapse of Germany’s solar power industry over the past decade, as many companies were forced out of business thanks to cheaper competitors from China scooping up most of the market. The number of jobs in solar PV panel production and installation fell from a record 133,000 in 2011 to under 28,000 seven years later.

In the wind industry, the number of jobs dropped from its record of roughly 108,000 in 2016 to under 70,000 just two years later. “Employment with respect to construction renewable energy installations has been very dynamic in the last 20 years, both in a negative and in a positive way,” the DGB said, arguing that many more jobs could be created in the sector again.

Full post

see also Gordon Hughes: The Myth of Green Jobs
 
The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.

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