Clive Bibby: Defence alliances that will work for us

l wonder why our Prime Minister is placing so much importance on unconfirmed high level talks with President Chi of China just before the election. One might argue that he could better spend his time at home dealing with internal problems- some of which are of his own making, rather than trying to impress an overseas dictator of his competence to lead and speak on behalf of an inconsequential little country at the bottom of the South Pacific.

At the same time, it is interesting to note the flurry of activity amongst those Pacific Nations who are rightly alarmed by Chinese expansionist policies that could seriously affect their and our ability to trade with the rest of the world.

Why would we want to be currying favour with a brutal regime set on world dominance at a time when everyone else not aligned or subjected to Chinese influence is trying to build a combined deterrent in response to the superpower’s demonstrated belligerent behaviour.

Especially when the  facts about our own vulnerable position on the world stage is a matter of grave concern.

It is a matter of conjecture as to whether our existing outdated defence agreements with our traditional allies would be adequate to counter any Chinese threat if they chose to penalise us simply because of our association with those who have acted on our behalf as an effective deterrent in the past.

The recent defence agreement involving the members of Aukus but tellingly, no longer including us, is the clearest indication of how we rank as a reliable partner if a major conflict between the US and China erupted over Taiwan’s desire to remain an independent country.

Even for the most impartial observer, the message for us is unequivocal.

We are no longer seen as the close ally that we were after WW2 where we had demonstrated to be a force who punched above our weight in some of the most significant battles of the war - the North African and Italian campaigns to name just two. Our reward for those exemplary efforts was to be seen as an equal cornerstone nation in the Anzus accord.

But times have changed and unfortunately it is OUR reliability that is now in question.

Some of our long term closest friends are starting to doubt our trustworthiness.

Those kiwis who made the ultimate sacrifice during the previous World Wars must be turning in their graves.

These days, the threats we must deal with close to home are much more important than even those we overcame all those years ago on behalf of the free world on battlefields so far away. This time our defence capabilities would be wiped out in a nanosecond if the current defence partners we rely on either decide not to engage on our behalf or are themselves forced to withdraw from the Pacific in order to lick their wounds and regroup.

So, it is clear that we have a choice.

Either to pretend that we want to remain an independent, non aligned country, seeking to trade with whoever wants to buy what we have to sell or - to make it clear to both our potential allies and our likely enemies as to who’s side we are on if push comes to shove.

In the modern era, we can’t have it both ways and we shouldn’t be trying.

If our potential enemies see us as a committed ally to a group of formidable Pacific and Asian nations who share our values and beliefs, that in itself may act as the deterrent we would need that has the capacity to keep us safe.

My problem with the current Government’s attempt to be all things to all men is that in a major skirmish, we won’t be able to sit on the side-lines hoping that our independence will keep us from harm’s way. We will all be involved whether we like it or not.

The next world war, like the last two, will be fought between two major power blocks but the consequences of a nuclear conflict could mean the end of civilisation as we know it - relative minor wars like Ukraine are survivable as long as they don’t involve the ultimate weapon.

A modern war involving nuclear weapons is un-winnable for either side but that will not stop those who are unanswerable to their own people from pushing the boundaries until we are engaged in something that will kill us all.

I believe that our best chance of survival In those circumstances is simply to ensure it doesn’t happen and the best way to do that is for us to demonstrate we are reliable allies in a counter force recognisable by our opponents as unbeatable.

While we like to consider ourselves as a little group of islands down at the bottom of the South Pacific, our credibility as a sovereign nation prepared to stand up to the bullies will be enhanced by deeds - not just words.

Our membership of effective alliances will determine whether we survive or not - that is if they want and feel they can trust us!

Clive Bibby is a commentator, consultant, farmer and community leader, who lives in Tolaga Bay.