In this newsletter:
1) Europe’s gas prices jump as new energy crisis looms
Bloomberg, 16 June 2023
2) Europe must exploit its fossil fuel resources or face economic relegation to second world status
Net Zero Watch, October 2022
3) Climate sceptics win as Finland's right-wing parties strike deal to form government
Reuters, 15 June 2023
4) Net Zero critics blow up climate policy consensus
Politico, 15 June 2023
5) COP28 faces another flop as UN divisions deepen over climate $$$billions
Politico, 15 June 2023
6) Britain backtracks on coal exit, blaming Putin for Net Zero U-turn
The Daily Telegraph, 16 June 2023
7) European aviation faces a €820 billion tab to reach Net Zero
AIN Online, 25 June 2023
8) Rural households switching to heat pump face 70pc rise in bills, industry group warns
The Daily Telegraph, 16 June 2023
9) Ross McKitrick: The truth about forest fires goes up in climate-change smoke
Financial Post, 15 June 2023
10) Myth of Big Oil’s funding of climate scepticism vs reality of Big Green’s billions driving climate alarmism
Financial Post, 15 June 2023
10) Myth of Big Oil’s funding of climate scepticism vs reality of Big Green’s billions driving climate alarmism
11) And finally: Pioneering electric plane shelved as batteries only last a few hundred flights
The Daily Telegraph, 15 June 2023
The Daily Telegraph, 15 June 2023
Full details:
1) Europe’s gas prices jump as new energy crisis looms
Bloomberg, 16 June 2023
The gas market is flashing warning signs that Europe could easily plunge back into crisis.
Bloomberg, 16 June 2023
The gas market is flashing warning signs that Europe could easily plunge back into crisis.
Huge price swings caused by a series of small outages at gas facilities in Norway and the planned shutdown of a key production site in the Netherlands have provided a glimpse of how fragile the market is to any threat of disruption to the region’s supply.
Traders have every reason to feel relaxed: storage sites are more full than usual, demand in Asia remains muted. And yet, volatility is at levels not seen since the height of the crisis. The lack of stability is bad news for industrial customers trying to get back on an even keel and for central banks trying to gauge how far to squeeze economies with tighter rates to keep inflation in check.
“This was a taster of the potential risk to come,” said Nick Campbell, a director at Inspired Energy. “Whilst this may convince large industrials to keep lower production or sites mothballed, which will ease any demand increase, all eyes are on supply.”
Record high energy prices were a core driver of the cost-of-living crisis engulfing Europe this past year. Germany, the region’s biggest economy, endured its first recession since the start of the pandemic during the first quarter. Britons struggling with double-digit inflation staged nationwide strikes across a number of industries.
The fact that the market is once and again flashing warning signs just as it seeks to rebuild its energy infrastructure may not bode well for the European Central Bank’s fight to curb persistent inflation.
Full story
2) Europe must exploit its fossil fuel resources or face economic relegation to second world status
Net Zero Watch, October 2022
Traders have every reason to feel relaxed: storage sites are more full than usual, demand in Asia remains muted. And yet, volatility is at levels not seen since the height of the crisis. The lack of stability is bad news for industrial customers trying to get back on an even keel and for central banks trying to gauge how far to squeeze economies with tighter rates to keep inflation in check.
“This was a taster of the potential risk to come,” said Nick Campbell, a director at Inspired Energy. “Whilst this may convince large industrials to keep lower production or sites mothballed, which will ease any demand increase, all eyes are on supply.”
Record high energy prices were a core driver of the cost-of-living crisis engulfing Europe this past year. Germany, the region’s biggest economy, endured its first recession since the start of the pandemic during the first quarter. Britons struggling with double-digit inflation staged nationwide strikes across a number of industries.
The fact that the market is once and again flashing warning signs just as it seeks to rebuild its energy infrastructure may not bode well for the European Central Bank’s fight to curb persistent inflation.
Full story
2) Europe must exploit its fossil fuel resources or face economic relegation to second world status
Net Zero Watch, October 2022
As Europe faces its worst energy crisis in living memory, Net Zero Watch has warned ministers and MPs in London and Brussels that they have a choice between exploiting Europe’s untouched fossil fuel resources or inevitable relegation of the continent to second world status.
It is matter of real concern that most MPs and ministers still oppose drilling for gas and oil in European waters and the North Sea, and even more importantly, still reject shale gas exploration, blocking a vital energy resource for Europe’s and the UK’s future.
Europe’s fossil fuel resources are the subject of a new paper published by Net Zero Watch. The paper surveys the scale of resources and concludes that they are large enough to make a significant difference to both price and energy security, opening up the path to a more secure future.
Europe’s energy resources are far from trivial, with coal reserves amounting to nearly 13% of the global total, sufficient to support current levels of production for nearly 300 years.
According to the European Commission, technically recoverable shale gas resources in Europe amount to some 14 trillion cubic metres, between four and five times greater than the proven reserves of natural gas. In other words, shale gas would be sufficient to support current levels of European gas production for more than 50 years.
In 2014 the European Commission concluded that ‘the volumes produced will not make Europe self-sufficient in gas, but could help to reduce prices’. That conclusion is obviously correct, and applies with equal force to coal, oil, and conventional natural gas resources.
Full paper
It is matter of real concern that most MPs and ministers still oppose drilling for gas and oil in European waters and the North Sea, and even more importantly, still reject shale gas exploration, blocking a vital energy resource for Europe’s and the UK’s future.
Europe’s fossil fuel resources are the subject of a new paper published by Net Zero Watch. The paper surveys the scale of resources and concludes that they are large enough to make a significant difference to both price and energy security, opening up the path to a more secure future.
Europe’s energy resources are far from trivial, with coal reserves amounting to nearly 13% of the global total, sufficient to support current levels of production for nearly 300 years.
According to the European Commission, technically recoverable shale gas resources in Europe amount to some 14 trillion cubic metres, between four and five times greater than the proven reserves of natural gas. In other words, shale gas would be sufficient to support current levels of European gas production for more than 50 years.
In 2014 the European Commission concluded that ‘the volumes produced will not make Europe self-sufficient in gas, but could help to reduce prices’. That conclusion is obviously correct, and applies with equal force to coal, oil, and conventional natural gas resources.
Full paper
3) Climate sceptics win as Finland's right-wing parties strike deal to form government
Reuters, 15 June 2023
Reuters, 15 June 2023
The new government is expected to loosen environmental commitments.
HELSINKI, June 15 (Reuters) - Finland's conservative National Coalition (NCP), winner of April's parliamentary election, has reached agreement to form a majority government with the eurosceptic, anti-immigration Finns Party and two smaller groups, its leader said on Thursday.
"All issues have been resolved and the papers are ready," said NCP leader Petteri Orpo, a fiscal conservative set to become Finland's next prime minister, referring to the government program.
By getting the NCP, the nationalist Finns, minority-language Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats to agree on a common platform, Orpo shifts Finnish politics to the right and sends left-wing Prime Minister Sanna Marin into opposition.
During 11-week talks over how to govern Finland during the coming four years the Finns and the Swedish People's Party had struggled to agree on immigration, climate policy and public finances, but reached a compromise in the end.
Orpo's government is expected to curb the fiscal deficit by cutting unemployment and welfare benefits, and to tighten immigration and loosen environmental commitments.
Full story
See also:
HELSINKI, June 15 (Reuters) - Finland's conservative National Coalition (NCP), winner of April's parliamentary election, has reached agreement to form a majority government with the eurosceptic, anti-immigration Finns Party and two smaller groups, its leader said on Thursday.
"All issues have been resolved and the papers are ready," said NCP leader Petteri Orpo, a fiscal conservative set to become Finland's next prime minister, referring to the government program.
By getting the NCP, the nationalist Finns, minority-language Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats to agree on a common platform, Orpo shifts Finnish politics to the right and sends left-wing Prime Minister Sanna Marin into opposition.
During 11-week talks over how to govern Finland during the coming four years the Finns and the Swedish People's Party had struggled to agree on immigration, climate policy and public finances, but reached a compromise in the end.
Orpo's government is expected to curb the fiscal deficit by cutting unemployment and welfare benefits, and to tighten immigration and loosen environmental commitments.
Full story
See also:
4) Net Zero critics blow up climate policy consensus
Politico, 15 June 2023
Politico, 15 June 2023
LONDON — The U.K.’s net zero debate is starting to boil over.
With a little more than a year to go until the likely date of a general election, the government and opposition are trading blows over energy policy. As the rhetoric ratchets up, both sides accuse the other of pushing policies that leave Britain vulnerable to Vladimir Putin's Russia.
Whereas for a time there was broad political consensus about climate, particularly under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, an enthusiastic advocate for net zero, in recent weeks political fault lines over green policies have reopened, thrusting the issue back up the agenda ahead of a likely election next year.
The opposition Labour Party — currently well ahead in the polls — has started to lay out its policy stall, committing to ban new oil and gas developments in the North Sea and reaffirming plans to follow Joe Biden’s example by putting big state fiscal firepower behind the green transition.
The proposals are the only way to “cut [domestic] bills for good and deliver energy security for Britain,” according to Ed Miliband, Labour's shadow energy minister. The plans have been welcomed by climate campaigners.
But they have sparked a major backlash from the Conservative government and right-leaning media.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak claimed Labour’s oil and gas policy was written by “eco-zealots” and said that the only beneficiaries would be “dictators and autocrats,” including Putin. Energy Secretary Grant Shapps has tweeted about the policy 14 times since it became front page news late last month. Shapps told POLITICO that Labour’s policy represented no less than “a threat to the stability and the energy security of this country.”
Such attacks help define the contours of the climate debate as the U.K. heads towards an election. Competing visions for the oil and gas sector will be central, accompanied by a battle between Labour’s British brand of Bidenomics and the Conservatives’ confidence in private investment as the motor of the green transition.
But the tone and tenor of the messaging from Conservative figures has startled some in the U.K.’s broad-based green movement. They fear the impact this could have in a country which, on the whole, has avoided the sort of deep divides over climate action that scar the political landscape in other countries, not least the U.S.
“The recent change in tone on the environment from some Conservative politicians is worrying,” said Shaun Spiers, executive director at the independent Green Alliance think tank. While welcoming debate on the future of North Sea oil and gas, Spiers said that “responsible politicians” should be “careful not to undermine the case for climate action, and the cross-party consensus that has made the U.K. a world leader on the climate.”
Full story
5) COP28 faces another flop as UN divisions deepen over climate $$$billions
Politico, 15 June 2023
With a little more than a year to go until the likely date of a general election, the government and opposition are trading blows over energy policy. As the rhetoric ratchets up, both sides accuse the other of pushing policies that leave Britain vulnerable to Vladimir Putin's Russia.
Whereas for a time there was broad political consensus about climate, particularly under former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, an enthusiastic advocate for net zero, in recent weeks political fault lines over green policies have reopened, thrusting the issue back up the agenda ahead of a likely election next year.
The opposition Labour Party — currently well ahead in the polls — has started to lay out its policy stall, committing to ban new oil and gas developments in the North Sea and reaffirming plans to follow Joe Biden’s example by putting big state fiscal firepower behind the green transition.
The proposals are the only way to “cut [domestic] bills for good and deliver energy security for Britain,” according to Ed Miliband, Labour's shadow energy minister. The plans have been welcomed by climate campaigners.
But they have sparked a major backlash from the Conservative government and right-leaning media.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak claimed Labour’s oil and gas policy was written by “eco-zealots” and said that the only beneficiaries would be “dictators and autocrats,” including Putin. Energy Secretary Grant Shapps has tweeted about the policy 14 times since it became front page news late last month. Shapps told POLITICO that Labour’s policy represented no less than “a threat to the stability and the energy security of this country.”
Such attacks help define the contours of the climate debate as the U.K. heads towards an election. Competing visions for the oil and gas sector will be central, accompanied by a battle between Labour’s British brand of Bidenomics and the Conservatives’ confidence in private investment as the motor of the green transition.
But the tone and tenor of the messaging from Conservative figures has startled some in the U.K.’s broad-based green movement. They fear the impact this could have in a country which, on the whole, has avoided the sort of deep divides over climate action that scar the political landscape in other countries, not least the U.S.
“The recent change in tone on the environment from some Conservative politicians is worrying,” said Shaun Spiers, executive director at the independent Green Alliance think tank. While welcoming debate on the future of North Sea oil and gas, Spiers said that “responsible politicians” should be “careful not to undermine the case for climate action, and the cross-party consensus that has made the U.K. a world leader on the climate.”
Full story
5) COP28 faces another flop as UN divisions deepen over climate $$$billions
Politico, 15 June 2023
BONN, Germany — This was supposed to be the United Arab Emirates’ chance to prove its critics wrong.
The host of this year’s COP28 climate summit was under pressure to set out a clear vision at preparatory talks held at the United Nations HQ in Bonn amid growing unease over the petrostate's fossil fuel interests.
But by the time negotiators departed the former West German capital on Thursday, concerns about the UAE’s handling of the global climate talks had only deepened.
“Bridges are not being built,” said one EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the negotiations. “I’m worried that at COP28, half of the countries will want to talk about funding and half about reducing emissions, as happened here.”
The 10-day Bonn talks were consumed by a power struggle over the conference agenda, which remained unadopted until Wednesday night.
The EU — backed by other Western countries as well as several Latin American nations and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) — added an agenda item on the “mitigation work program,” aimed at scaling up emissions cuts worldwide.
That prompted the group of Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs) — dominated by emerging economy emitters like China, India and Saudi Arabia — to block the agenda unless rich countries also accepted a new agenda item about climate finance.
“That was a point of principle,” the EU diplomat said. “They want no outside pressure on reducing emissions. China doesn’t want us to be the guiding force.”
Others accused Western countries of wanting to avoid a climate finance debate, in particular one — as demanded by the LMDCs — focused on what rich nations owe the Global South.
Full story
6) Britain backtracks on coal exit, blaming Putin for Net Zero U-turn
The Daily Telegraph, 16 June 2023
The host of this year’s COP28 climate summit was under pressure to set out a clear vision at preparatory talks held at the United Nations HQ in Bonn amid growing unease over the petrostate's fossil fuel interests.
But by the time negotiators departed the former West German capital on Thursday, concerns about the UAE’s handling of the global climate talks had only deepened.
“Bridges are not being built,” said one EU diplomat, who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss the negotiations. “I’m worried that at COP28, half of the countries will want to talk about funding and half about reducing emissions, as happened here.”
The 10-day Bonn talks were consumed by a power struggle over the conference agenda, which remained unadopted until Wednesday night.
The EU — backed by other Western countries as well as several Latin American nations and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) — added an agenda item on the “mitigation work program,” aimed at scaling up emissions cuts worldwide.
That prompted the group of Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDCs) — dominated by emerging economy emitters like China, India and Saudi Arabia — to block the agenda unless rich countries also accepted a new agenda item about climate finance.
“That was a point of principle,” the EU diplomat said. “They want no outside pressure on reducing emissions. China doesn’t want us to be the guiding force.”
Others accused Western countries of wanting to avoid a climate finance debate, in particular one — as demanded by the LMDCs — focused on what rich nations owe the Global South.
Full story
6) Britain backtracks on coal exit, blaming Putin for Net Zero U-turn
The Daily Telegraph, 16 June 2023
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has squeezed gas supplies to Europe, forcing countries including the UK to look to coal as a potential back-up option for generating electricity in the event of shortages.
The engineering crews and cranes have already arrived at the Drax power station in Yorkshire to dismantle two of the last remaining coal plants in the country.
Over the past decade, four of the facility’s six coal-fired units have been converted to run on wood chips with only two left that can burn coal.
Yet the end of coal combustion in Selby may now be delayed for the second year in a row, as the National Grid seeks to ensure that Britain’s lights stay on this winter.
On Thursday the Grid confirmed it is in talks with Drax about keeping the coal units going until April 2024, to provide an extra source of backup power for the country once again.
It is the latest example of how Vladimir Putin’s energy war continues to frustrate the UK’s attempts to ditch “King Coal”.
The “dirty” fuel was lambasted by Boris Johnson just two years ago at the Cop26 climate conference, with the Government vowing to phase it out completely by the end of 2024.
The promise has proved easier said than done, with the reality of the war in Ukraine colliding with best intentions.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has squeezed gas supplies to Europe, forcing countries including the UK to look to coal as a potential back-up option for generating electricity in the event of shortages.
Full story
7) European aviation faces a €820 billion tab to reach Net Zero
AIN Online, 25 June 2023
The engineering crews and cranes have already arrived at the Drax power station in Yorkshire to dismantle two of the last remaining coal plants in the country.
Over the past decade, four of the facility’s six coal-fired units have been converted to run on wood chips with only two left that can burn coal.
Yet the end of coal combustion in Selby may now be delayed for the second year in a row, as the National Grid seeks to ensure that Britain’s lights stay on this winter.
On Thursday the Grid confirmed it is in talks with Drax about keeping the coal units going until April 2024, to provide an extra source of backup power for the country once again.
It is the latest example of how Vladimir Putin’s energy war continues to frustrate the UK’s attempts to ditch “King Coal”.
The “dirty” fuel was lambasted by Boris Johnson just two years ago at the Cop26 climate conference, with the Government vowing to phase it out completely by the end of 2024.
The promise has proved easier said than done, with the reality of the war in Ukraine colliding with best intentions.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has squeezed gas supplies to Europe, forcing countries including the UK to look to coal as a potential back-up option for generating electricity in the event of shortages.
Full story
7) European aviation faces a €820 billion tab to reach Net Zero
AIN Online, 25 June 2023
Europe’s airlines increasingly have expressed worry that environmental regulations and their resulting costs will hinder the sector’s competitiveness and, ultimately, its decarbonization efforts.
Their concerns stem largely from elements of the European Green Deal, under which the European Commission has actively developed policies in the areas of energy, transport, and taxation with the objective of achieving climate neutrality for the European Union (EU) by 2050. Among its arsenal of initiatives, the “Fit for 55” package consists of a set of legislative proposals designed to curb net carbon dioxide emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared with the levels recorded in 1990.
On paper, Europe’s aviation sector supports the EU's ambitious blueprint for sustainable growth and in 2021 mapped its own sustainability initiative, Destination 2050, which will see all flights within and departing the “EU+”—the 27 EU states, UK, and the European Free Trade Association countries—realizing net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050. But many industry leaders question what they consider the one-sided approach regulators have taken toward achieving the goal.
A study conducted by consultants SEO Amsterdam Economics and the Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre, released in March, calculated that the European aviation industry faces €820 billion in “premium” expenditures—or spending exclusively on sustainability—to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. That comes on top of the €1.1 trillion in “business as usual” expenditures over the 32-year period from 2018 to 2050 considered in the Price of Net Zero study.
“Business as usual expenditures alone will not generate on-time decarbonization,” the researchers noted. Expenditures involve investments in assets such as new aircraft and infrastructure as well as costs of developing alternative aviation fuels—including drop-in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), hydrogen, and electricity—and technologies aimed at removing carbon from the atmosphere to achieve “negative emissions.”
Total expenditures to yield on-time net zero amount to €1.9 trillion, or €59 billion per year. Of the total, €820 billion will go towards new aircraft and fleet renewal, representing the largest expenditure at 43 percent. With a projected cost of €751 billion over the 32-year period, sustainable aviation fuels stand as the second largest expenditure, accounting for a 40 percent share, while €152 billion (19 percent) will go toward carbon pricing and economic measures, including emission trading and negative emission technologies.
Full story
8) Rural households switching to heat pump face 70pc rise in bills, industry group warns
The Daily Telegraph, 16 June 2023
Their concerns stem largely from elements of the European Green Deal, under which the European Commission has actively developed policies in the areas of energy, transport, and taxation with the objective of achieving climate neutrality for the European Union (EU) by 2050. Among its arsenal of initiatives, the “Fit for 55” package consists of a set of legislative proposals designed to curb net carbon dioxide emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared with the levels recorded in 1990.
On paper, Europe’s aviation sector supports the EU's ambitious blueprint for sustainable growth and in 2021 mapped its own sustainability initiative, Destination 2050, which will see all flights within and departing the “EU+”—the 27 EU states, UK, and the European Free Trade Association countries—realizing net zero carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by 2050. But many industry leaders question what they consider the one-sided approach regulators have taken toward achieving the goal.
A study conducted by consultants SEO Amsterdam Economics and the Royal Netherlands Aerospace Centre, released in March, calculated that the European aviation industry faces €820 billion in “premium” expenditures—or spending exclusively on sustainability—to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. That comes on top of the €1.1 trillion in “business as usual” expenditures over the 32-year period from 2018 to 2050 considered in the Price of Net Zero study.
“Business as usual expenditures alone will not generate on-time decarbonization,” the researchers noted. Expenditures involve investments in assets such as new aircraft and infrastructure as well as costs of developing alternative aviation fuels—including drop-in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), hydrogen, and electricity—and technologies aimed at removing carbon from the atmosphere to achieve “negative emissions.”
Total expenditures to yield on-time net zero amount to €1.9 trillion, or €59 billion per year. Of the total, €820 billion will go towards new aircraft and fleet renewal, representing the largest expenditure at 43 percent. With a projected cost of €751 billion over the 32-year period, sustainable aviation fuels stand as the second largest expenditure, accounting for a 40 percent share, while €152 billion (19 percent) will go toward carbon pricing and economic measures, including emission trading and negative emission technologies.
Full story
8) Rural households switching to heat pump face 70pc rise in bills, industry group warns
The Daily Telegraph, 16 June 2023
Rural households could see their heating bills increase by more than two thirds if they switch to using heat pumps in line with the Government’s net zero targets, according to figures from an industry trade body.
Data calculated by the Energy and Utilities Alliance (EUA) showed that the cost of running a heat pump for rural homes is more than 70 per cent higher per year than a conventional oil boiler.
For roughly 9,894 kWhs of heat, the total amount of energy required to heat a rural property for one year, the running cost of a heat pump would be £1060.20, while an oil boiler would cost just £617.81, a difference of 71.5 per cent.
The Government wants to install 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028 and ban all new oil boilers by 2026, as well as put eight million electric vehicles (EVs) on UK roads by 2030 as part of the push to meet Net Zero targets.
The proposals have prompted fears in rural communities, where millions of people are not connected to the gas grid and so rely on oil heating, that antiquated local infrastructure will not be able to cope with the sudden demand on electricity.
Full story
Data calculated by the Energy and Utilities Alliance (EUA) showed that the cost of running a heat pump for rural homes is more than 70 per cent higher per year than a conventional oil boiler.
For roughly 9,894 kWhs of heat, the total amount of energy required to heat a rural property for one year, the running cost of a heat pump would be £1060.20, while an oil boiler would cost just £617.81, a difference of 71.5 per cent.
The Government wants to install 600,000 heat pumps a year by 2028 and ban all new oil boilers by 2026, as well as put eight million electric vehicles (EVs) on UK roads by 2030 as part of the push to meet Net Zero targets.
The proposals have prompted fears in rural communities, where millions of people are not connected to the gas grid and so rely on oil heating, that antiquated local infrastructure will not be able to cope with the sudden demand on electricity.
Full story
9) Ross McKitrick: The truth about forest fires goes up in climate-change smoke
Financial Post, 15 June 2023
Financial Post, 15 June 2023
We're told we should listen to the science, but the science on forest fires is that they peaked in the 1980s
Until the recent Canadian wildfires sent plumes of smoke over the densely populated cities around the Great Lakes and along the Eastern Seaboard, few people in those cities had ever experienced the weird orange haze of a forest fire or the temporary spike in fine particulates and pervasive smell of smoke. Understandably, many people reacted with alarm. We city-dwellers typically only see wildfires on television, usually alongside footage of fire crews and water-bombers valiantly trying to put them out, which creates the impression they are somehow unnatural events that must be avoided at all costs. In reality, forest fires are not only natural but essential to the life cycle of the forest ecosystem.
Unfortunately, politicians, reporters and climate activists rushed in to exploit this unusual event by pushing their agenda. They made a lot of glib claims about climate change causing wildfires to become more common. For instance, Prime Minister Trudeau tweeted: “We’re seeing more and more of these fires because of climate change.”
That statement is false. Amid the smokescreen of untrue claims, nobody seems to have bothered looking up the numbers. Canadian forest fire data are available from the Wildland Fire Information System. Wildfires have been getting less frequent in Canada over the past 30 years. The annual number of fires grew from 1959 to 1990, peaking in 1989 at just over 12,000 that year, and has been trending down since. From 2017 to 2021 (the most recent interval available), there were about 5,500 fires per year, half the average from 1987 to 1991.
The annual area burned also peaked 30 years ago. It grew from 1959 to 1990, peaking in 1989 at 7.6 million hectares before declining to the current average of 2.4 million hectares per year over 2017-21. And 2020 marked the lowest point on record with only 760,000 hectares burned.
The record shows that the fraction of fires each year that become major (more than 200 hectares in size) peaked back in 1964 at 12.3 per cent. From 1959 to 1964, it averaged 8.7 per cent then dropped to 3.4 per cent in the early 1980s. As of 2017-21 interval, it had climbed again to 6.0 per cent, but that’s still well below the average 60 years ago.
At the global level, satellite data from the European Space Agency also show that wildfire activity has been trending downward in recent decades and is currently approaching its lowest level since the record began in the early 1980s.
In an extensive discussion on the Royal Society blog back in 2020, U.K. forestry experts Stefan Doerr and Cristina Santin acknowledged that climate change may be making conditions for fire more favourable in some areas, but also noted it’s leading to reductions in other areas. As for the tendency for some fires to become larger and more dangerous, this can be traced to our approaches to forest management. “[Very] aggressive fire suppression policies over much of the 20th century have removed fire from ecosystems where it has been a fundamental part of the landscape rejuvenation cycle” they explained. This has led to a buildup of fuel in the form of woody debris leading to the risk of more explosive and unstoppable fires.
“We cannot completely remove fire from the landscape,” they stressed. “That is the misconception that led to the ‘100 per cent fire suppression’ policies in the U.S. and elsewhere that have made things worse in many cases.”
As Environmental Studies professor Roger Pielke Jr. notes on his Substack, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is also reluctant to connect forest fire activity to climate change. While it notes there has been an increase in “fire weather” (hot dry conditions conducive to forest fires) in a few regions globally, it does not claim a “signal” of greenhouse gas influence is currently present in the probability of fire weather nor does it expect one to be detected over the coming century.
When it comes to climate change, we’re constantly told to “follow the science.” Yet the same people who say that also regularly fabricate claims about trends in forest fires, both here in Canada and globally, and the connection to climate change. Science tells us forest fires are not becoming more common and the average area burned peaked 30 years ago. It also tells us we could do better at reducing the risk of catastrophic wildfire, if we’re prepared to make the effort.
Ross McKitrick is a professor of environmental economics at the University of Guelph and a senior fellow of the Fraser Institute.
Until the recent Canadian wildfires sent plumes of smoke over the densely populated cities around the Great Lakes and along the Eastern Seaboard, few people in those cities had ever experienced the weird orange haze of a forest fire or the temporary spike in fine particulates and pervasive smell of smoke. Understandably, many people reacted with alarm. We city-dwellers typically only see wildfires on television, usually alongside footage of fire crews and water-bombers valiantly trying to put them out, which creates the impression they are somehow unnatural events that must be avoided at all costs. In reality, forest fires are not only natural but essential to the life cycle of the forest ecosystem.
Unfortunately, politicians, reporters and climate activists rushed in to exploit this unusual event by pushing their agenda. They made a lot of glib claims about climate change causing wildfires to become more common. For instance, Prime Minister Trudeau tweeted: “We’re seeing more and more of these fires because of climate change.”
That statement is false. Amid the smokescreen of untrue claims, nobody seems to have bothered looking up the numbers. Canadian forest fire data are available from the Wildland Fire Information System. Wildfires have been getting less frequent in Canada over the past 30 years. The annual number of fires grew from 1959 to 1990, peaking in 1989 at just over 12,000 that year, and has been trending down since. From 2017 to 2021 (the most recent interval available), there were about 5,500 fires per year, half the average from 1987 to 1991.
The annual area burned also peaked 30 years ago. It grew from 1959 to 1990, peaking in 1989 at 7.6 million hectares before declining to the current average of 2.4 million hectares per year over 2017-21. And 2020 marked the lowest point on record with only 760,000 hectares burned.
The record shows that the fraction of fires each year that become major (more than 200 hectares in size) peaked back in 1964 at 12.3 per cent. From 1959 to 1964, it averaged 8.7 per cent then dropped to 3.4 per cent in the early 1980s. As of 2017-21 interval, it had climbed again to 6.0 per cent, but that’s still well below the average 60 years ago.
At the global level, satellite data from the European Space Agency also show that wildfire activity has been trending downward in recent decades and is currently approaching its lowest level since the record began in the early 1980s.
In an extensive discussion on the Royal Society blog back in 2020, U.K. forestry experts Stefan Doerr and Cristina Santin acknowledged that climate change may be making conditions for fire more favourable in some areas, but also noted it’s leading to reductions in other areas. As for the tendency for some fires to become larger and more dangerous, this can be traced to our approaches to forest management. “[Very] aggressive fire suppression policies over much of the 20th century have removed fire from ecosystems where it has been a fundamental part of the landscape rejuvenation cycle” they explained. This has led to a buildup of fuel in the form of woody debris leading to the risk of more explosive and unstoppable fires.
“We cannot completely remove fire from the landscape,” they stressed. “That is the misconception that led to the ‘100 per cent fire suppression’ policies in the U.S. and elsewhere that have made things worse in many cases.”
As Environmental Studies professor Roger Pielke Jr. notes on his Substack, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is also reluctant to connect forest fire activity to climate change. While it notes there has been an increase in “fire weather” (hot dry conditions conducive to forest fires) in a few regions globally, it does not claim a “signal” of greenhouse gas influence is currently present in the probability of fire weather nor does it expect one to be detected over the coming century.
When it comes to climate change, we’re constantly told to “follow the science.” Yet the same people who say that also regularly fabricate claims about trends in forest fires, both here in Canada and globally, and the connection to climate change. Science tells us forest fires are not becoming more common and the average area burned peaked 30 years ago. It also tells us we could do better at reducing the risk of catastrophic wildfire, if we’re prepared to make the effort.
Ross McKitrick is a professor of environmental economics at the University of Guelph and a senior fellow of the Fraser Institute.
10) Myth of Big Oil’s funding of climate scepticism vs reality of Big Green’s billions driving climate alarmism
The Daily Sceptic, 15 June 2023
The Daily Sceptic, 15 June 2023
"The idea of an entire industry of climate denial servicing the interests of big oil companies has become the most respectable conspiracy theory at all levels of society – the online troll is as comfortable reproducing the smear as the chair of the internationally-renowned scientific organisation.”
In 2019 the climate activist and UCL Geography Professor Mark Maslin wrote that oil companies were spending $200 million a year promoting something he termed “climate change denial”. The ‘dark forces’ claim has been in regular use ever since. The Guardian recently reported Big Oil was “wringing humanity dry”, noting once again the annual $200m spent on climate change lobbying. Great story. Shame there is no actual evidence to back it up.
That can be concluded from a major new work from the investigative journalist Ben Pile. He traces the Maslin claim to a Forbes article, which in turn was based on the work of InfluenceMap, an international think tank at the “cutting edge of climate and sustainability issues”. InfluenceMap claims to use a funding methodology based on “best available records”, but Pile notes the presence of a “tower of estimates”. This is largely guessing, “not the discovery of a cache of receipts”, he observes.
In more detail, Pile notes that this stack of assumptions involves defining areas of corporate activity that might be used for climate lobbying and then estimating spending associated with these activities, and then further estimating the proportion of spending directed at climate change related issues, before finally categorising as ‘lobbying’ or ‘branding’ based on whether the activity pertains to a political agenda. Overall, Pile concludes, “it is just guesses”. The work is “performative” in nature, and gives the impression of an investigation in order to make real one of green ideology’s major articles of faith.
He goes on to note: “And so the idea of an entire industry of climate denial servicing the interests of big oil companies has become the most respectable conspiracy theory at all levels of society – the online troll is as comfortable reproducing the smear as the chair of the internationally-renowned scientific organisation.”
Full post
In 2019 the climate activist and UCL Geography Professor Mark Maslin wrote that oil companies were spending $200 million a year promoting something he termed “climate change denial”. The ‘dark forces’ claim has been in regular use ever since. The Guardian recently reported Big Oil was “wringing humanity dry”, noting once again the annual $200m spent on climate change lobbying. Great story. Shame there is no actual evidence to back it up.
That can be concluded from a major new work from the investigative journalist Ben Pile. He traces the Maslin claim to a Forbes article, which in turn was based on the work of InfluenceMap, an international think tank at the “cutting edge of climate and sustainability issues”. InfluenceMap claims to use a funding methodology based on “best available records”, but Pile notes the presence of a “tower of estimates”. This is largely guessing, “not the discovery of a cache of receipts”, he observes.
In more detail, Pile notes that this stack of assumptions involves defining areas of corporate activity that might be used for climate lobbying and then estimating spending associated with these activities, and then further estimating the proportion of spending directed at climate change related issues, before finally categorising as ‘lobbying’ or ‘branding’ based on whether the activity pertains to a political agenda. Overall, Pile concludes, “it is just guesses”. The work is “performative” in nature, and gives the impression of an investigation in order to make real one of green ideology’s major articles of faith.
He goes on to note: “And so the idea of an entire industry of climate denial servicing the interests of big oil companies has become the most respectable conspiracy theory at all levels of society – the online troll is as comfortable reproducing the smear as the chair of the internationally-renowned scientific organisation.”
Full post
11) And finally: Pioneering electric plane shelved as batteries only last a few hundred flights
The Daily Telegraph, 15 June 2023
The Daily Telegraph, 15 June 2023
Developer admits electric aircraft not commercially viable with current technology
A pioneering electric plane developer has shelved development of its new craft after discovering that its batteries will only last a few hundred flights before they need to be replaced.
Italy’s Tecnam said it will stop making the P-volt aircraft since it cannot now hit a target of delivering the plane by 2026.
The speed at which the batteries would lose charge would erode the nine-passenger craft’s value, ruining its commercial prospects, it added.
The company will now wait for battery capacity and weight improvements which will allow the propeller-driven plane to be developed successfully at a later date.
Full story
A pioneering electric plane developer has shelved development of its new craft after discovering that its batteries will only last a few hundred flights before they need to be replaced.
Italy’s Tecnam said it will stop making the P-volt aircraft since it cannot now hit a target of delivering the plane by 2026.
The speed at which the batteries would lose charge would erode the nine-passenger craft’s value, ruining its commercial prospects, it added.
The company will now wait for battery capacity and weight improvements which will allow the propeller-driven plane to be developed successfully at a later date.
Full story
The London-based Net Zero Watch is a campaign group set up to highlight and discuss the serious implications of expensive and poorly considered climate change policies. The Net Zero Watch newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.netzerowatch.com.
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