On 6 June 2023, the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine was breached, causing extensive flooding. Located on the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast, the Russian military controlled the dam, having seized it in the early days of the invasion of Ukraine.
Most of the media coverage focuses on the flooding of part of Kherson Oblast (including some low-lying suburbs of Kherson City itself), however there are far bigger implications. Specifically, the cooling systems at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant could fail, leading to a Fukushima-type event, though potentially bigger. That means an exclusion zone because of contamination around the plant (perhaps in a 30km radius) and radionuclide fallout hundreds of km downwind, the region dependent on wind direction and local rainfall conditions. The water of the Dnieper would be heavily contaminated; the radioactive load would be transported downstream and into the Black Sea. It is possible that the city of Kherson would become uninhabitable.
The Zaporizhzhia plant, which with its six reactors is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, continually needs cooling water pumped into its nuclear reactor vessels, even if the reactor is shut down. Also, nuclear plants store spent fuel rods in water basins which need cooling as well. Without continuous water supply excess heat from the fuel rods is not removed and a meltdown will happen in a matter of days, as at Fukushima.
There is an intact water storage reservoir near the plant, but that would be exhausted within about a month. With the Dnieper river now about 15-20m lower, the reservoir cannot easily be refilled. Theoretically, long pipes could be installed to pump water from the Dnieper, however this would need to be done in a hurry and in an active war zone.
Apart from the water shortage, the Zaporizhzhia plant is also affected by uncertainties with its power supply. Pumping water through the various reactors and fuel basins requires uninterrupted power supply. The nuclear plant itself is currently shut down, so electricity must be provided from elsewhere, straining the Ukraine power grid that suffered under targeted Russian missile attacks and now also has lost the Kakhovka hydroelectric generation. Power supply lines into the Zaporizhzhia plant have been cut before during the current war, so onsite diesel generators provided emergency power for a short time. A reasonable assumption would be that enough diesel fuel is on the site to last for a week, and resupply might be impossible because of the war conditions. So a permanent cut in power supply would lead to a lack of cooling within a week, causing a meltdown a few days thereafter.
Ukraine, which controls the river’s western bank and the city of Kherson, accused Russia of blowing up the dam. Russia, which controls the eastern bank for about 300 kilometers before the river reaches the Black Sea, blames military strikes ordered by Kyiv, though engineering experts agree that artillery, HIMARS and even cruise missiles cannot fatally damage the structure which was designed by Soviet engineers to withstand a nearby nuclear blast. The evidence suggests that Russia is responsible for the dam breach. Russia has been attacking Ukrainian infrastructure for months now. The dam breach has reduced Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity, and will have devastating effects on the environment and agricultural production. Furthermore, the breach and the flooding it caused would impede any Ukrainian counter-offensive over the lower Dnieper.
The Russians were certainly not yet targeting the Zaporizhzhia plant directly. However, IAEA observers on site indicate that explosives have been placed around critical systems in the plant. If the Russians chose to detonate them then melt down could occur within a day. The situation mirrors the mined Khakovka dam, where explosives had been placed in October last year and only were used when the Russian army would achieve maximum benefits from a dam failure. With the Zaporizhzhia plant now being a similar hostage, but with consequences for Europe and beyond as Ukrainian agricultural products would turn radioactive, the question must be asked if the international community should not indicate massive consequences for any devastating nuclear sabotage.
Dr Uwe Rieser, retired nuclear physicist
Dr Peter Winsley has worked in policy and economics-related fields in New Zealand for many years. With qualifications and publications in economics, management and literature. This article was first published HERE
There is an intact water storage reservoir near the plant, but that would be exhausted within about a month. With the Dnieper river now about 15-20m lower, the reservoir cannot easily be refilled. Theoretically, long pipes could be installed to pump water from the Dnieper, however this would need to be done in a hurry and in an active war zone.
Apart from the water shortage, the Zaporizhzhia plant is also affected by uncertainties with its power supply. Pumping water through the various reactors and fuel basins requires uninterrupted power supply. The nuclear plant itself is currently shut down, so electricity must be provided from elsewhere, straining the Ukraine power grid that suffered under targeted Russian missile attacks and now also has lost the Kakhovka hydroelectric generation. Power supply lines into the Zaporizhzhia plant have been cut before during the current war, so onsite diesel generators provided emergency power for a short time. A reasonable assumption would be that enough diesel fuel is on the site to last for a week, and resupply might be impossible because of the war conditions. So a permanent cut in power supply would lead to a lack of cooling within a week, causing a meltdown a few days thereafter.
Ukraine, which controls the river’s western bank and the city of Kherson, accused Russia of blowing up the dam. Russia, which controls the eastern bank for about 300 kilometers before the river reaches the Black Sea, blames military strikes ordered by Kyiv, though engineering experts agree that artillery, HIMARS and even cruise missiles cannot fatally damage the structure which was designed by Soviet engineers to withstand a nearby nuclear blast. The evidence suggests that Russia is responsible for the dam breach. Russia has been attacking Ukrainian infrastructure for months now. The dam breach has reduced Ukraine’s electricity generation capacity, and will have devastating effects on the environment and agricultural production. Furthermore, the breach and the flooding it caused would impede any Ukrainian counter-offensive over the lower Dnieper.
The Russians were certainly not yet targeting the Zaporizhzhia plant directly. However, IAEA observers on site indicate that explosives have been placed around critical systems in the plant. If the Russians chose to detonate them then melt down could occur within a day. The situation mirrors the mined Khakovka dam, where explosives had been placed in October last year and only were used when the Russian army would achieve maximum benefits from a dam failure. With the Zaporizhzhia plant now being a similar hostage, but with consequences for Europe and beyond as Ukrainian agricultural products would turn radioactive, the question must be asked if the international community should not indicate massive consequences for any devastating nuclear sabotage.
Dr Uwe Rieser, retired nuclear physicist
Dr Peter Winsley has worked in policy and economics-related fields in New Zealand for many years. With qualifications and publications in economics, management and literature. This article was first published HERE
5 comments:
The author mentions evidence that the Russians breached the dam. And the evidence is?
Zip, as usual
The evidence the dam was breached by an explosion rather than for example by a structural failing comes from Norwegian seismic records, American spy satellites, social media accounts and intercepted phone conversations. Seismic signals recorded in Bukovina, Romania, 620km (372 miles) away from Nova Kakhovka, indicate an explosion took place at 02:54 on Tuesday. Norsar, the Norwegian Seismic Array which analysed the signals, says the timing and location coincide with the collapse of the dam. U.S. spy satellites detected an explosion at the dam just before it collapsed.
The dam was under Russian control for the past year and only the Russian military was in a position to plant explosives capable of breaching a dam that was designed to withstand a nearby nuclear blast. Intercepted Russian phone conversations yet to be independently verified confirm that the explosion was a Russian inside job.
Causing such an explosion in a dam weak point is beyond the capability of any Ukrainian weapons system. Russia also had a motive, which was to impede the planned Ukraine counter-offensive.
I am probably a bit naive when it comes to international conflict.
However, I wonder what needs to happen before the west steps up and sorts the mess out.
The threat of nuclear is already present, it seems Putin is waiting for the west to do something to give him a reason to escalate.
Meantime Ukraine is slowly destroyed and will be of little benefit to whoever wins.
Putin the despotic destroyer. I wonder when the world will be rid of him? He has gone well beyond diplomacy and diplomatic immunity.
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