Click images to view
National drops 2.4 points on last month to 33.3% while Labour drops 1.8 points to 31.1%. ACT is up 0.5 points to 13.2% while the Greens are down 0.8 points to 8.9%.
The smaller parties are the Maori Party 5.0% (+1.5 points), NZ First on 3.3% (+1.7 points), Democracy NZ on 1.9% (+1 point), New Conservatives on 0.4% (-0.9 points), and TOP on 0.3% (-0.5 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll
So, a hung parliament is the projection on this poll. We are now three months out from the election and a clear lead should have emerged, but it hasn’t.
This is the usual pattern for elections: the major parties slide and the minor parties grow. It is entirely predictable and you have to wonder precisely how National plans on getting over 40% when the usual polling pattern is now abundantly clear.
This poll is great news for minor parties and confirms the general trend shown in other polls like the Talbot Mills one.
NZ First is on the cusp of being returned, and if National and Labour continue to slide then expect Winston Peters to pick up more support.
Click to view
The smaller parties are the Maori Party 5.0% (+1.5 points), NZ First on 3.3% (+1.7 points), Democracy NZ on 1.9% (+1 point), New Conservatives on 0.4% (-0.9 points), and TOP on 0.3% (-0.5 points).
Here is how these results would translate to seats in Parliament:
Taxpayers’ Union/Curia Poll
So, a hung parliament is the projection on this poll. We are now three months out from the election and a clear lead should have emerged, but it hasn’t.
This is the usual pattern for elections: the major parties slide and the minor parties grow. It is entirely predictable and you have to wonder precisely how National plans on getting over 40% when the usual polling pattern is now abundantly clear.
This poll is great news for minor parties and confirms the general trend shown in other polls like the Talbot Mills one.
NZ First is on the cusp of being returned, and if National and Labour continue to slide then expect Winston Peters to pick up more support.
Click to view
In the Preferred Prime Minister stakes, both major party leaders have dropped in support since last month. Chris Hipkins sees a drop of 6 points to 23% while Christopher Luxon sees a drop of 3 points to 20%.
Jacinda Ardern still registers at 8% for preferred Prime Minister (down 1 point on last month last month) while David Seymour drops 1 point to 6%.
Winston Peters is on 3.6% (+0.8 points), Chlöe Swarbrick is on 2.3% (-0.1 points), Nicola Willis is also on 2.2% (-0.2 points), Matt King is on 1.9% (+1 point), Leighton Baker is on 1.1% (-0.2 points), Chris Bishop is on 1.1% (nc), James Shaw is on 0.6% (-0.2 points), and Marama Davidson is on 1.8% (+1.1 points).
National’s Christopher Luxon should be seeing growth in his rating but he is not. He’s been touring the country and people have been getting to know him. Clearly, that is not working. Perhaps he should consider hiding out in his basement; surely that couldn’t be any worse.
National’s strategists, if you can call them that, must be starting to worry.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. This article was first published HERE
5 comments:
Another (inevitable) OCR increase, another 20,000 mortgages in distress and a few dozen more ramraids will make up the minds of the voters.
And the Talbot poll showed just the opposite with National rising to 36% and Labour slipping to 30%
And Hipkin's popularity plummeting whilst Luxon stayed steady.
And NZ First was still within the margin of error at 3%.
Picking out one poll in isolation is rubbish Cam and Winston is gone for all money thankfully.
The man betrayed NZ by going with Adern in 2017 all for the baubles of office.
The only poll that matters is the actual election result. Then we'll know how good all the other polls are. Fingers crossed it's a resounding win for the centre-right. While far from being perfect, they are a haven in a shit-storm compared to our unhinged Left coalition of Labour, Greens and Maori Party.
Until the "Puppet Masters" behind the curtain who control our government to their set agenda are exposed and dealt to, nothing will change. Its just the rate of change, that changes.
Simon Cohen, yes agree.
Couldn't be a more ****** name however. Hope your the right kind of *** according to Rosanne Barr
ie not a Khararian, but she doesn't use that distinction.
Anonymous at
July 15, 2023 at 12:34
Couldn't agree more.
Post a Comment