David Farrar: A tough poll

Today was a teacher only day at my boys’ school so I’ve been out all day visiting grandparents., indoor playgrounds and rugby. Having now got home, I’ve seen that the monthly Curia poll for the TU has gotten a wee bit of attention.

I normally don’t blog on my own polls, or even mention them on Kiwiblog. But as this one is being discussed so much elsewhere, I thought it would be useful to share some thoughts.

JC: Polls Tell Government to Get a Move On

The February Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll is out and it is not encouraging for the governing parties. National is up a smidgen but still stuck in the low 30s. ACT and NZ First are down slightly but all the changes are within the poll’s margin of error. Compared to the Roy Morgan poll released on January 29, this poll is harsher to the right but less so to the left. Changes recorded in both polls are fairly minimal.

Centrist: Is the Treaty debate bigger than statistics suggest?

Right facts, wrong conclusions

Matthew Hooton’s recent article for The NZ Herald, “Treaty Principles Bill submissions received, but there are issues leaving race debate in dust,” delivers accurate polling data but we disagree with his conclusion.

He suggests that the Treaty debate is only a distant concern for voters, but his interpretation may be ignoring the broader relevance of these issues to the political and social landscape.

JC: Voters Send a Double Edged Sword

Luxon’s increasing vitriol smacks of a personal preference taking precedence over the wishes of the majority of centre-right voters.

The first poll for the year is out: the Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll. It has thrown up some interesting, some might say intriguing, results. Before commencing an analysis I think we should bear in mind the time of year it was taken. Politics might be a topic for the barbecue but it is in the context of a holiday environment. That could account for the sorts of results the poll has thrown up.

DTNZ: Labour overtakes National in latest poll as economic concerns dominate voter sentiment

The Labour Party has overtaken National in the polls for the first time since April 2023, according to the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll, a shift that spells trouble for National leader Christopher Luxon as both major parties prepare for their caucus retreats next week.

Winston Peters: Support for Maori Ward referendum

On Monday a poll was released that was conducted by polling company Curia Market Research on the issue of Māori Wards.

What may come as a shock to the out-of-touch dictators on the left, it showed that 58% of people believe that it should be the local ratepayers that decide on Māori Wards by a referendum, not councils.

Cam Slater: Treaty Issues Now a Top 3 Concern for Voters

As I predicted the other day, Christopher Luxon and the National Party are being squeezed hard on treaty issues. David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill is increasingly popular, and the polls show it. But Luxon is extremely squishy on this and wetter than an otter’s pocket. Sooner rather than later he is going to have to pick a side instead of sitting on the fence.

Cam Slater: Big Parties’ Slide Is On

I have often said that as we get closer to the election, we will not see a surge in big party support, but a slide. The latest Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll confirms that the slide is real. Both Labour and National continue to slide away, while minor party support grows.

Peter Wilson: Week in Politics: Te Pāti Māori in spotlight as Luxon paints a picture of 'chaos'

Christopher Luxon rules out working with Te Pāti Māori and launches a "coalition of chaos" attack on Labour, Meka Whaitiri's controversial return to Parliament, National sets a donations record and ACT gains a high profile election candidate.

National's leader ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori after the election this week.

Thank goodness for that. No more "Poll shows Maori Party could be kingmaker" headlines, no more not quite ruling it out from Luxon, no more "leaving the door ajar" reports.

Wendy Geus: Gaurav Sharma Co-stars as Potaka’s Lucky Charm…

Poll indicates National’s Tama Potaka will blitz the field in Hamilton West by-election

The media are flailing around searching for other missiles to chuck at Luxon over the Hamilton West byelection, as their ‘not another pale, stale, male’ line has become redundant with National’s selection of high calibre candidate Tama Potaka.

I must admit I had my doubts when he was announced as National’s Hamilton West candidate, given seasoned, likeable politician Tim McIndoe was keen to get back into the political fray. As former National MP for Hamilton West for 12 years he had the massive advantage of being a known candidate.

Bryce Edwards: Labour’s fraught battle to retain the Māori vote

Labour’s poll results are trending down. Yesterday’s Curia poll put the party down two points to just 33 per cent, while National is up three points to 37 per cent. When it comes to next year’s election, a key constituency for Labour will be Māori voters, especially in the Māori seats which are facing a strong challenge from Te Pati Māori.

Yet Labour’s support amongst Māori also seems to be plummeting. A poll earlier in the year by Horizon Research for The Hui, showed Labour’s support had dropped from 54 per cent in 2020, to just 37 per cent this year. The seventeen-point drop was a sign, according to Te Pati Māori’s co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer, that in Māoridom, “The red wave is well and truly over”. National’s Shane Reti also pronounced “the Māori love affair with Labour is well and truly over.”