Labour’s support has crashed to its lowest point in at least four years in the latest Talbot Mills corporate poll, tumbling five points to 31 per cent, its lowest rating in that poll since at least 2019.
National rose one point to 36 per cent, as did likely governing partner Act which is on 12 per cent.
The Greens are up one point too, on 8 per cent.
Commentary released with the poll said it is the first time National has been ahead of Labour by five points or more. It is also the first time the centre-right has been ahead of the centre-left by five points or more since the 2017 election.
Te Pati Maori scored 4.2 per cent, NZ First was on 4 per cent, and TOP was on 2.9 per cent.
The bad news did not stop there for Labour, with leader Chris Hipkins tumbling six points to 32 per cent in the Preferred Prime Minister poll.
A fall that large is bad news for Labour, but National leader Christopher Luxon was unable to capitalise on Hipkins’ malaise. His preferred prime minister polling was still 11 points behind Hipkins on 21 per cent, down one point on the last poll.
Talbot Mills contacted 1036 people between June 28 and July 2. The poll has a margin of error of 3 per cent. The poll is produced for Talbot Mills’ corporate clients. The company also conducts Labour’s internal poll.
NZ Herald
This poll was taken in what I can only describe as a target-rich environment for the Opposition. Michael Wood was effectively sacked, Jan Tinetti was censured by the Privileges Committee and Kiri Allan seems to be in the middle of a career and personal meltdown.
With Labour’s support crumbling, National should be hoovering up that support, but they aren’t. Labour crashed five points and National picked up just one.
What is interesting in this poll, is that NZ First is on the cusp of being returned to Parliament on four per cent.
I believe that this election will revert to the normal phase of the electoral cycle, where the big parties lose support and the minor parties grow support. If that is the case, and we will get an idea with a couple more polls, then National’s pathways to victory get easier with every vote they, Act or NZ First pick up off Labour. It is increasingly looking like a vote for NZ First won’t be wasted, so expect to see NZ First surge now.
My ideal situation post-election is a three-way coalition between National, Act and NZ First, with the two smaller parties both acting in slightly different ways to curb the globalist tendencies of the National Party.
We are now less than 100 days from the election. Things just got exciting.
Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. This article was first published HERE
5 comments:
Poor old Cam. Still flying Winston's flag.
Despite what he's said, if NZF are re-elected, I just can't rule out Winston going with Labour. He's done it time and time again. If you're naturally a centre-right voter, a vote for NZF could put Labour back in power. Why risk that.
Go Cam! Winston has always flown a flag for the same consistent message. We are all New Zealanders and we all need to look out for each other. One country, one people. He is not perfect but he has been unfairly vilified over a long time despite being proved right on many topics. (Winebox, see Ian Wishart's book "Paradise Papers"). When you look at the record of the National and Labour Parties over the last 40 years why would we want to vote for more of their failed and useless policies? Now is the time to get some real MMP going and vote for smaller parties to contribute from more of a cross section of society, not hard line or soft line but more centrist and concilliatory. Otherwise we will be off to Ireland or Australia to escape New Zimbabwe.
MC
Winston has made a clear statement that NZ First (NZF) will not form a coalition with the Labour Party if it surpasses the 5% threshold. He believes that both NZF and the ACT Party will be necessary to prevent National from implementing policies he perceives as resembling those of the Labour Party. This alliance is may be necessary to restrain what can be seen as Labour's "light" version of policies influenced by woke social movements. This is the most important election in New Zealand's history. We are finished as a democracy if the 'Coalition of Chaos'comes to power. We stand at a crossroads in history.
I'm with you Cameron, I would dearly love to see Winston back in parliament. We need to see a real politician back in the Beehive,
someone with the people's interest at heart.
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