In this newsletter:
1) Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots
Axios, 10 July 2023
2) In China, the era of Western carmakers is over
The Wall Street Journal, 10 July 2023
3) Biden's electric vehicle push is doomed to failure, warn carmakers
The Daily Telegraph, 10 July 2023
4) Ray Massey: This headlong rush to electric vehicles could see the wheels come off Britain's motor industry
Daily Mail, 10 July 2023
5) Mike Shedlock: The EU's Green Deal goes unfunded, expect a total collapse
Mish Talk, 8 July 2023
Mish Talk, 8 July 2023
6) Record renewables growth fails to reduce global fossil fuel share
Business Day, 10 July 2023
Business Day, 10 July 2023
7) China boosts coal production to ensure energy supply
Xinhua, 7 July 2023
8) China is pumping out CO2 emissions as if Covid never happened
Xinhua, 7 July 2023
8) China is pumping out CO2 emissions as if Covid never happened
The Conversation, 9 July 2023
9) Political uncertainty in the Netherlands cast doubt over the future of Net Zero and green subsidies
ING, 10 July 2023
10) ‘Draconian’ Net Zero rules will hit landlords to tune of £6,000 – but only save £36 a year
City A.M. 11 July 2023
11) Transition to Net Zero ‘will cost UK universities £37 billion’
Times Higher Education, 11 July 2023
9) Political uncertainty in the Netherlands cast doubt over the future of Net Zero and green subsidies
ING, 10 July 2023
10) ‘Draconian’ Net Zero rules will hit landlords to tune of £6,000 – but only save £36 a year
City A.M. 11 July 2023
11) Transition to Net Zero ‘will cost UK universities £37 billion’
Times Higher Education, 11 July 2023
12) Climate models come with ‘dangerous’ CO2 warming baked in, code review finds
The Daily Sceptic, 10 July 2023
The Daily Sceptic, 10 July 2023
Full details:
1) Unsold electric cars are piling up on dealer lots
Axios, 10 July 2023
Axios, 10 July 2023
The auto industry is beginning to crank out more electric vehicles (EVs) to challenge Tesla, but there's one big problem: not enough buyers.
Why it matters: The growing mismatch between EV supply and demand is a sign that even though consumers are showing more interest in EVs, they're still wary about purchasing one because of price or charging concerns.
It's a "Field of Dreams" moment for automakers making big bets on electrification — they've built the cars, and now they're waiting for buyers to come, says Jonathan Gregory, senior manager of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive.
Driving the news: Cox Automotive experts highlighted the swelling EV inventories during a recent midyear industry review for journalists and industry stakeholders.
EV sales, which account for about 6.5% of the U.S. auto market so far this year, are expected to surpass 1 million units for the first time in 2023, Cox forecasts.
A Cox survey found that 51% of consumers are now considering either a new or used EV, up from 38% in 2021.
Tesla’s rapid expansion, plus new EVs from other brands, are fueling the interest — 33 new models are arriving this year, and more than 50 new or updated models are coming in 2024, Cox estimates.
Yes, but: Sales aren't keeping up with that increased output.
Details: The nationwide supply of EVs in stock has swelled nearly 350% this year, to more than 92,000 units.
That's a 92-day supply — roughly three months' worth of EVs, and nearly twice the industry average.
For comparison, dealers have a relatively low 54 days' worth of gasoline-powered vehicles in inventory as they rebound from pandemic-related supply chain interruptions.
In normal times, there's usually a 70-day supply.
Notably, Cox's inventory data doesn't include Tesla, which sells direct to consumers. [...]
The intrigue: Hybrid vehicles have much lower inventory levels, supporting Toyota's argument that consumers want a stepping stone to fully electric cars.
Full story
3) Biden's electric vehicle push is doomed to failure, warn carmakers
The Daily Telegraph, 10 July 2023
Why it matters: The growing mismatch between EV supply and demand is a sign that even though consumers are showing more interest in EVs, they're still wary about purchasing one because of price or charging concerns.
It's a "Field of Dreams" moment for automakers making big bets on electrification — they've built the cars, and now they're waiting for buyers to come, says Jonathan Gregory, senior manager of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive.
Driving the news: Cox Automotive experts highlighted the swelling EV inventories during a recent midyear industry review for journalists and industry stakeholders.
EV sales, which account for about 6.5% of the U.S. auto market so far this year, are expected to surpass 1 million units for the first time in 2023, Cox forecasts.
A Cox survey found that 51% of consumers are now considering either a new or used EV, up from 38% in 2021.
Tesla’s rapid expansion, plus new EVs from other brands, are fueling the interest — 33 new models are arriving this year, and more than 50 new or updated models are coming in 2024, Cox estimates.
Yes, but: Sales aren't keeping up with that increased output.
Details: The nationwide supply of EVs in stock has swelled nearly 350% this year, to more than 92,000 units.
That's a 92-day supply — roughly three months' worth of EVs, and nearly twice the industry average.
For comparison, dealers have a relatively low 54 days' worth of gasoline-powered vehicles in inventory as they rebound from pandemic-related supply chain interruptions.
In normal times, there's usually a 70-day supply.
Notably, Cox's inventory data doesn't include Tesla, which sells direct to consumers. [...]
The intrigue: Hybrid vehicles have much lower inventory levels, supporting Toyota's argument that consumers want a stepping stone to fully electric cars.
Full story
2) In China, the era of Western carmakers is over
The Wall Street Journal, 10 July 2023
The Wall Street Journal, 10 July 2023
The rise of China’s EV makers is another victory for Beijing’s industrial policies, following high-speed rail, solar panels and batteries.
BEIJING—Sales of homegrown passenger-car brands in China are consistently eclipsing those of their Western rivals, signaling the growing influence of the country’s electric-vehicle makers—and a triumph for Beijing’s industrial policy.
Local brands captured 54% of China’s wholesale car market in the first six months of 2023, from 48% a year earlier, the China Passenger Car Association said Monday. That is the second consecutive time local brands have surpassed foreign ones on a half-year basis, according to Cui Dongshu, the industry body’s secretary-general. Wholesale figures include vehicle exports.
Western carmakers have dominated China since they were first allowed to set up joint ventures with local partners decades ago. Some made a fortune as the country sped past the U.S. to become the world’s biggest auto market. But as homegrown brands solidify the trend of outselling foreign rivals, the era of Western dominance is over.
China’s auto revolution is being driven by its commanding lead in battery powered and plug-in hybrid cars—the only types of vehicle for which demand has been consistently growing. Led by BYD, nine local manufacturers were among China’s 10 bestselling electric-vehicle makers in June, according to CPCA data. Tesla was the only foreign carmaker on the list.
Sales of electric and plug-in hybrid passenger cars jumped 44% in the first half of 2023 to more than 3.5 million vehicles, making up around a third of total sales that grew almost 9% over the same period, the data showed. Some industry experts predict electric cars will outsell gas-fueled ones in China in the next four years. In the U.S., electric vehicles’ market share was 7% in the first half, after sales surged 50% to 557,330 units.
China’s pursuit of electrification since 2009 has turned the country from a follower of automotive trends into the recognized leader in new-energy vehicles—and one that global carmakers increasingly say they want to learn from. And they must, if they hope to compete in the Chinese market, says Stephen Dyer, a Shanghai-based auto consultant at AlixPartners.
In past decades, global automakers including Volkswagen and General Motors piled into China, seeking growth to offset slowdowns in the U.S., Europe and other mature markets.
But after China’s auto sales topped out in 2017, the market became a headache for many of those carmakers still relying on sales of internal-combustion motors. In 2022, sales of internal-combustion-engine vehicles were roughly 8 million lower than at the 2017 peak, according to Shanghai-based consulting firm Automobility. Meanwhile, the recent speed of China’s transition caught Western companies by surprise.
“Japanese, American and European automakers all have this sense that they were too late to make the initial moves,” Honda’s Chief Operating Officer Shinji Aoyama said at April’s Shanghai auto show. “We’re now in a phase of trying our best to catch up.”
Whether the foreign brands can slow the momentum of their Chinese rivals quickly enough remains to be seen.
BEIJING—Sales of homegrown passenger-car brands in China are consistently eclipsing those of their Western rivals, signaling the growing influence of the country’s electric-vehicle makers—and a triumph for Beijing’s industrial policy.
Local brands captured 54% of China’s wholesale car market in the first six months of 2023, from 48% a year earlier, the China Passenger Car Association said Monday. That is the second consecutive time local brands have surpassed foreign ones on a half-year basis, according to Cui Dongshu, the industry body’s secretary-general. Wholesale figures include vehicle exports.
Western carmakers have dominated China since they were first allowed to set up joint ventures with local partners decades ago. Some made a fortune as the country sped past the U.S. to become the world’s biggest auto market. But as homegrown brands solidify the trend of outselling foreign rivals, the era of Western dominance is over.
China’s auto revolution is being driven by its commanding lead in battery powered and plug-in hybrid cars—the only types of vehicle for which demand has been consistently growing. Led by BYD, nine local manufacturers were among China’s 10 bestselling electric-vehicle makers in June, according to CPCA data. Tesla was the only foreign carmaker on the list.
Sales of electric and plug-in hybrid passenger cars jumped 44% in the first half of 2023 to more than 3.5 million vehicles, making up around a third of total sales that grew almost 9% over the same period, the data showed. Some industry experts predict electric cars will outsell gas-fueled ones in China in the next four years. In the U.S., electric vehicles’ market share was 7% in the first half, after sales surged 50% to 557,330 units.
China’s pursuit of electrification since 2009 has turned the country from a follower of automotive trends into the recognized leader in new-energy vehicles—and one that global carmakers increasingly say they want to learn from. And they must, if they hope to compete in the Chinese market, says Stephen Dyer, a Shanghai-based auto consultant at AlixPartners.
In past decades, global automakers including Volkswagen and General Motors piled into China, seeking growth to offset slowdowns in the U.S., Europe and other mature markets.
But after China’s auto sales topped out in 2017, the market became a headache for many of those carmakers still relying on sales of internal-combustion motors. In 2022, sales of internal-combustion-engine vehicles were roughly 8 million lower than at the 2017 peak, according to Shanghai-based consulting firm Automobility. Meanwhile, the recent speed of China’s transition caught Western companies by surprise.
“Japanese, American and European automakers all have this sense that they were too late to make the initial moves,” Honda’s Chief Operating Officer Shinji Aoyama said at April’s Shanghai auto show. “We’re now in a phase of trying our best to catch up.”
Whether the foreign brands can slow the momentum of their Chinese rivals quickly enough remains to be seen.
3) Biden's electric vehicle push is doomed to failure, warn carmakers
The Daily Telegraph, 10 July 2023
Joe Biden’s race to embrace electric vehicles risks overwhelming US charging infrastructure and creating disastrous supply shortages, two of the world’s biggest carmakers have said.
Toyota and Vauxhall owner Stellantis accused the President of being “overly optimistic” in his push for a rule that would require two thirds of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2032.
The companies were quick to point out that they support a move to low-emissions vehicles and electric cars in particular but warned that they need customers to buy them and that costs are still too high for the mass market.
The cars typically cost about £10,000 more than comparable petrol-burning versions, with many drivers able to recoup the difference through cheaper charging over the life of the vehicle.
Toyota warned the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that there would also be a rush to secure lithium and other minerals needed to make battery-powered cars if the plans went ahead.
Full story
Toyota and Vauxhall owner Stellantis accused the President of being “overly optimistic” in his push for a rule that would require two thirds of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2032.
The companies were quick to point out that they support a move to low-emissions vehicles and electric cars in particular but warned that they need customers to buy them and that costs are still too high for the mass market.
The cars typically cost about £10,000 more than comparable petrol-burning versions, with many drivers able to recoup the difference through cheaper charging over the life of the vehicle.
Toyota warned the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) that there would also be a rush to secure lithium and other minerals needed to make battery-powered cars if the plans went ahead.
Full story
4) Ray Massey: This headlong rush to electric vehicles could see the wheels come off Britain's motor industry
Daily Mail, 10 July 2023
Daily Mail, 10 July 2023
Chinese made electric vehicles threaten to outcompete the UK's motor industry
Last week, I was among the first journalists in the world to drive the finest and most sophisticated electric car in the world – the new Rolls-Royce Spectre.
Built at a bespoke factory at Goodwood, West Sussex, that employs 2,500 people, it is the pinnacle of British craftsmanship.
Refined, comfortable, near-silent but also astonishingly fast and smooth, this sleek two-door, four-seat fastback coupe is powered by twin electric motors and hits 60mph in 4.4 seconds.
It also has a full-charge range of up to 329 miles – enough to drive from London to north of Newcastle.
No doubt it will be celebrated as a milestone in our transition to electric cars by green enthusiasts.
There’s just one catch. If you want one, be prepared to spend about £500,000.
Of course, the luxurious Spectre is a special case. But after spending nearly 30 years covering the motor industry for this newspaper, I have driven more electric cars than almost anyone else on earth, and written reports and road-test reviews without fear or favour, from pioneering Teslas to family favourites like the Volkswagen ID Buzz.
And it’s precisely because of that experience that I can tell you the Government’s blind insistence on banning new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 – and all hybrids by 2035 – is nothing short of bonkers.
Full story
Last week, I was among the first journalists in the world to drive the finest and most sophisticated electric car in the world – the new Rolls-Royce Spectre.
Built at a bespoke factory at Goodwood, West Sussex, that employs 2,500 people, it is the pinnacle of British craftsmanship.
Refined, comfortable, near-silent but also astonishingly fast and smooth, this sleek two-door, four-seat fastback coupe is powered by twin electric motors and hits 60mph in 4.4 seconds.
It also has a full-charge range of up to 329 miles – enough to drive from London to north of Newcastle.
No doubt it will be celebrated as a milestone in our transition to electric cars by green enthusiasts.
There’s just one catch. If you want one, be prepared to spend about £500,000.
Of course, the luxurious Spectre is a special case. But after spending nearly 30 years covering the motor industry for this newspaper, I have driven more electric cars than almost anyone else on earth, and written reports and road-test reviews without fear or favour, from pioneering Teslas to family favourites like the Volkswagen ID Buzz.
And it’s precisely because of that experience that I can tell you the Government’s blind insistence on banning new petrol and diesel cars by 2030 – and all hybrids by 2035 – is nothing short of bonkers.
Full story
5) Mike Shedlock: The EU's Green Deal goes unfunded, expect a total collapse
Mish Talk, 8 July 2023
Mish Talk, 8 July 2023
The European Commission put a cost on its Green deal estimate. It’s €620 billion. The EC has allocated €82.5 billion. Guess what.
Hooray! the EU finally has an agreement on a Green New Deal.
However, Eurointelligence reports the deal is largely unfunded.
"If we had to pinpoint a single tragic error in the modern history of European integration, it is the moment sometime during the euro crisis when pro-Europeans gave up on eurobonds and a fiscal union. Instead, they adopted Angela Merkel as their new role model, the pragmatist-in-chief. What made their plight even more tragic was the mistaken idea that they were in possession of a clever and legally watertight funding mechanism, which gave rise to the Sure unemployment reinsurance programme, and later the recovery fund.
FAZ tells us this morning why this strategy is not working. The Commission has put a figure on the annual costs of the Green deal, a whopping €620bn. The Commission itself has only allocated €82.5bn towards this, via the social climate fund. You can add a few euros here and there from various other pots, but this is not going to come close. Thierry Breton wanted a debt-financed €350bn funds for green investments, to match the size of the US inflation reduction act. That would have done the heavy lifting. But this was killed off by member states.
When the EU launched the recovery fund in 2020 we expressed scepticism about whether it could form a blueprint for future lending. There is simply no consensus in the EU for a perpetuation of a financial instrument that is ultimately secured by the member states themselves. What is also not helping is that the financial markets are not bestowing top-notch valuations to EU-issued debt for the simple reason that it is not sovereign. You can package a bunch of mortgages into a collateral debt obligation. But you can’t repackage or reclassify sovereign debt. What characterises a sovereign borrower is the power to raise funds through taxes. For as long as the EU is reliant on the kindness of member states, it is not in a position to fund some of these giant programmes. What the EU needs, dare we say it, is the real thing: a eurobond. Or else, it has to admit that it cannot do as much as it wants, for lack of funds.
The Green deal is not the only unfunded programme. The project for a greater geopolitical role for the EU is in the same category. In addition, there is the cost of the reconstruction of Ukraine, which the Commission puts at €384bn a year.
Since there is no way they can fund this out of their own resources, we believe that more smoke-and-mirror tricks are on the way. No prizes for guessing where this will leave the substance of the Green deal."
The EU’s climate deal is 13 percent funded. How’s that going to work?
Full post
Hooray! the EU finally has an agreement on a Green New Deal.
However, Eurointelligence reports the deal is largely unfunded.
"If we had to pinpoint a single tragic error in the modern history of European integration, it is the moment sometime during the euro crisis when pro-Europeans gave up on eurobonds and a fiscal union. Instead, they adopted Angela Merkel as their new role model, the pragmatist-in-chief. What made their plight even more tragic was the mistaken idea that they were in possession of a clever and legally watertight funding mechanism, which gave rise to the Sure unemployment reinsurance programme, and later the recovery fund.
FAZ tells us this morning why this strategy is not working. The Commission has put a figure on the annual costs of the Green deal, a whopping €620bn. The Commission itself has only allocated €82.5bn towards this, via the social climate fund. You can add a few euros here and there from various other pots, but this is not going to come close. Thierry Breton wanted a debt-financed €350bn funds for green investments, to match the size of the US inflation reduction act. That would have done the heavy lifting. But this was killed off by member states.
When the EU launched the recovery fund in 2020 we expressed scepticism about whether it could form a blueprint for future lending. There is simply no consensus in the EU for a perpetuation of a financial instrument that is ultimately secured by the member states themselves. What is also not helping is that the financial markets are not bestowing top-notch valuations to EU-issued debt for the simple reason that it is not sovereign. You can package a bunch of mortgages into a collateral debt obligation. But you can’t repackage or reclassify sovereign debt. What characterises a sovereign borrower is the power to raise funds through taxes. For as long as the EU is reliant on the kindness of member states, it is not in a position to fund some of these giant programmes. What the EU needs, dare we say it, is the real thing: a eurobond. Or else, it has to admit that it cannot do as much as it wants, for lack of funds.
The Green deal is not the only unfunded programme. The project for a greater geopolitical role for the EU is in the same category. In addition, there is the cost of the reconstruction of Ukraine, which the Commission puts at €384bn a year.
Since there is no way they can fund this out of their own resources, we believe that more smoke-and-mirror tricks are on the way. No prizes for guessing where this will leave the substance of the Green deal."
The EU’s climate deal is 13 percent funded. How’s that going to work?
Full post
6) Record renewables growth fails to reduce global fossil fuel share
Business Day, 10 July 2023
Business Day, 10 July 2023
Despite volatile energy markets and worries about energy security, record-high increases in solar and wind installations in 2022 failed to reduce the massive 82 percent share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption, according to the annual Statistical Review of World Energy released on Monday.
In addition, despite record growth in global solar and wind capacity additions last year, emissions rose to a new record high, according to the report, published by the Energy Institute (EI) and partners KPMG and Kearney.
This development has put the world further off track to meeting the Paris Agreement targets.
The latest report showed that primary energy demand growth slowed in 2022, increasing by 1.1 percent, compared to 5.5 percent growth in 2021, and taking it to around 3 percent above the 2019 pre-COVID level.
“Despite record growth in renewables, the share of world energy still coming from fossil fuels remains stubbornly stuck at 82 percent, which should act as a clarion call for governments to inject more urgency into the energy transition,” said Simon Virley, Vice Chair and Head of Energy and Natural Resources at KPMG in the UK.
Solar and wind capacity continued to surge, with a record increase of 266 gigawatts (GW) last year. Solar accounted for 72 percent, or 192 GW, of those capacity additions.
last year, as energy demand grew by 1.1 percent, global energy-related emissions continued to grow, and rose by 0.8 percent year-on-year, despite strong growth in renewables.
Juliet Davenport, president of EI, said: “Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again. We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement.”
Full story
In addition, despite record growth in global solar and wind capacity additions last year, emissions rose to a new record high, according to the report, published by the Energy Institute (EI) and partners KPMG and Kearney.
This development has put the world further off track to meeting the Paris Agreement targets.
The latest report showed that primary energy demand growth slowed in 2022, increasing by 1.1 percent, compared to 5.5 percent growth in 2021, and taking it to around 3 percent above the 2019 pre-COVID level.
“Despite record growth in renewables, the share of world energy still coming from fossil fuels remains stubbornly stuck at 82 percent, which should act as a clarion call for governments to inject more urgency into the energy transition,” said Simon Virley, Vice Chair and Head of Energy and Natural Resources at KPMG in the UK.
Solar and wind capacity continued to surge, with a record increase of 266 gigawatts (GW) last year. Solar accounted for 72 percent, or 192 GW, of those capacity additions.
last year, as energy demand grew by 1.1 percent, global energy-related emissions continued to grow, and rose by 0.8 percent year-on-year, despite strong growth in renewables.
Juliet Davenport, president of EI, said: “Despite further strong growth in wind and solar in the power sector, overall global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions increased again. We are still heading in the opposite direction to that required by the Paris Agreement.”
Full story
7) China boosts coal production to ensure energy supply
Xinhua, 7 July 2023
Xinhua, 7 July 2023
BEIJING, July 7 (Xinhua) -- China Energy Investment Corporation (China Energy), the world's largest coal-fired power generation giant, said on Friday that it has increased coal production to secure power supply nationwide.
In the first half of the year, China Energy is estimated to have produced 310 million tonnes of coal, up 4.1 percent year on year, data from the company showed.
China Energy said that its own production of coal has remained at the peak level of 50 million tonnes for 21 consecutive months since October 2021.
Coal stockpiles at China Energy's power plants stood at over 33.59 million tonnes by June 6 -- sufficient for 28 days of consumption, said the company.
In the first half of the year, China Energy is estimated to have produced 310 million tonnes of coal, up 4.1 percent year on year, data from the company showed.
China Energy said that its own production of coal has remained at the peak level of 50 million tonnes for 21 consecutive months since October 2021.
Coal stockpiles at China Energy's power plants stood at over 33.59 million tonnes by June 6 -- sufficient for 28 days of consumption, said the company.
8) China is pumping out CO2 emissions as if Covid never happened
The Conversation, 9 July 2023
The Conversation, 9 July 2023
Carbon emissions from China are growing faster now than before COVID-19 struck, data show, dashing hopes the pandemic may have put the world’s most polluting nation on a new emissions trajectory.
We compared emissions in China over the first four months of 2019 – before the pandemic – and 2023. Emissions rose 10% between the two periods, despite the pandemic and China’s faltering economic recovery. Power generation and industry are driving the increase.
Under the Paris Agreement, China has pledged to ensure carbon emissions peak by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2060. Our analysis suggests China may struggle to reach these ambitious goals.
Many believed the economic recovery from COVID would steer global development towards a less carbon-intensive footing. But China’s new path seems to be less sustainable than before. That’s bad news for global efforts to tackle climate change.
The COVID pandemic curbed greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, largely due to a drop in passenger travel. This led to hopes of a “green” economic recovery in which government stimulus spending would be invested into climate-friendly projects, to ensure a longer-term slowing of growth in emissions.
Some researchers examined the trends in China’s emissions up to 2019 and predicted the nation’s emissions would peak by 2026. Others have said the peak will occur even earlier, in 2025.
But unfortunately, it seems those predictions were too optimistic.
Full post
9) Political uncertainty in the Netherlands cast doubt over the future of Net Zero and green subsidies
ING, 10 July 2023
We compared emissions in China over the first four months of 2019 – before the pandemic – and 2023. Emissions rose 10% between the two periods, despite the pandemic and China’s faltering economic recovery. Power generation and industry are driving the increase.
Under the Paris Agreement, China has pledged to ensure carbon emissions peak by 2030 and reach net zero emissions by 2060. Our analysis suggests China may struggle to reach these ambitious goals.
Many believed the economic recovery from COVID would steer global development towards a less carbon-intensive footing. But China’s new path seems to be less sustainable than before. That’s bad news for global efforts to tackle climate change.
The COVID pandemic curbed greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, largely due to a drop in passenger travel. This led to hopes of a “green” economic recovery in which government stimulus spending would be invested into climate-friendly projects, to ensure a longer-term slowing of growth in emissions.
Some researchers examined the trends in China’s emissions up to 2019 and predicted the nation’s emissions would peak by 2026. Others have said the peak will occur even earlier, in 2025.
But unfortunately, it seems those predictions were too optimistic.
Full post
9) Political uncertainty in the Netherlands cast doubt over the future of Net Zero and green subsidies
ING, 10 July 2023
The Dutch government collapsed on Friday after being in power for just 18 months. Today, PM Mark Rutte announced he will leave politics. New elections will probably take place in November. Within many large political parties, the leadership is now up for grabs, implying high uncertainty.
Policy will be at a standstill for a long time
The collapse of the government means that the adoption of required legislation and the implementation of intended controversial policies – policies that coalition parties and other parties within parliament have had difficulty agreeing on - will go on hold. Parliament will have to return from its summer break on 27 July to vote on the topics it considers controversial (note that after the initial publication of this article, Parliament decided to hold the vote in September). Besides migration, topics that come to mind include sustainability (including combatting and mitigating climate change and nitrogen-emission), the housing market and perhaps labour market policies and tax reforms (including wealth taxes and child and rental allowances). [...]
Carbon emission policies could look different
Uncertainty about carbon emission policies leads to uncertainty about carbon-intensive sectors. The recent approach of the coalition has been to set very ambitious climate targets while aiming to keep energy-intensive industries mostly in the Netherlands. For this, it was using subsidies to allow these companies to be able to compete internationally. In total, the coalition had proposed a €34bn (3% of annual GDP) climate fund to fund 120 measures aimed at lowering the carbon intensity of existing activities. The first question for corporates will be whether the next government will be as ambitious on climate goals, the second will be whether it will still want to keep the same industries in the Netherlands and the third will be whether the government would be willing to do this via compensation and other ‘carrots’, or would use more ‘sticks’ like norms and taxes. And if it does, will it build on the current initiatives or propose new plans? This will slow investment (and thus the economy), while also slowing the energy transition. As a consequence, reaching the carbon emission targets in the medium term will become nearly impossible.
Full post
10) ‘Draconian’ Net Zero rules will hit landlords to tune of £6,000 – but only save £36 a year
City A.M. 11 July 2023
Policy will be at a standstill for a long time
The collapse of the government means that the adoption of required legislation and the implementation of intended controversial policies – policies that coalition parties and other parties within parliament have had difficulty agreeing on - will go on hold. Parliament will have to return from its summer break on 27 July to vote on the topics it considers controversial (note that after the initial publication of this article, Parliament decided to hold the vote in September). Besides migration, topics that come to mind include sustainability (including combatting and mitigating climate change and nitrogen-emission), the housing market and perhaps labour market policies and tax reforms (including wealth taxes and child and rental allowances). [...]
Carbon emission policies could look different
Uncertainty about carbon emission policies leads to uncertainty about carbon-intensive sectors. The recent approach of the coalition has been to set very ambitious climate targets while aiming to keep energy-intensive industries mostly in the Netherlands. For this, it was using subsidies to allow these companies to be able to compete internationally. In total, the coalition had proposed a €34bn (3% of annual GDP) climate fund to fund 120 measures aimed at lowering the carbon intensity of existing activities. The first question for corporates will be whether the next government will be as ambitious on climate goals, the second will be whether it will still want to keep the same industries in the Netherlands and the third will be whether the government would be willing to do this via compensation and other ‘carrots’, or would use more ‘sticks’ like norms and taxes. And if it does, will it build on the current initiatives or propose new plans? This will slow investment (and thus the economy), while also slowing the energy transition. As a consequence, reaching the carbon emission targets in the medium term will become nearly impossible.
Full post
10) ‘Draconian’ Net Zero rules will hit landlords to tune of £6,000 – but only save £36 a year
City A.M. 11 July 2023
Government rules which ensure housing meets net zero targets have been branded “draconian” by a landlords group, who say costs massively outweigh benefits.
Under new proposals, landlords will be blocked from letting properties unless they upgrade them to meet net zero energy efficiency targets as soon as 2028.
Homes will be required to have an energy performance certificate (EPC) rating of C or above and landlords could face fines of up to £30,000 if they breach these rules.
Speaking exclusively to City A.M., Jonathan Rolande from the National Association of Property Buyers, has warned that the potential imposition of these rules by the government is causing much concern to property owners, landlords especially.
“The problem is, the costs to reduce energy consumption are usually high and there is very little return on the money spent.
“Landlords can’t really ask for more rent because the walls are insulated and tenants save very little on fuel bills with almost all energy-saving measures.”
“Floor insulation in a small two bedroom house would cost £4000 to £6000 and save £36 a year. With financials like this, it is easy to see why, to meet targets, the Government must impose potentially draconian rules and regulations to get us to improve our housing stock and reduce carbon emissions – without them, who would bother?
“Green targets are driving this, not a traditional business case. It will soon be time for landlords to decide whether they stay in the sector or quit now, before things get even more expensive."
Full story
See also: Sunak ‘leading Tories to catastrophe’, bombshell poll shows
11) Transition to Net Zero ‘will cost UK universities £37 billion’
Times Higher Education, 11 July 2023
Under new proposals, landlords will be blocked from letting properties unless they upgrade them to meet net zero energy efficiency targets as soon as 2028.
Homes will be required to have an energy performance certificate (EPC) rating of C or above and landlords could face fines of up to £30,000 if they breach these rules.
Speaking exclusively to City A.M., Jonathan Rolande from the National Association of Property Buyers, has warned that the potential imposition of these rules by the government is causing much concern to property owners, landlords especially.
“The problem is, the costs to reduce energy consumption are usually high and there is very little return on the money spent.
“Landlords can’t really ask for more rent because the walls are insulated and tenants save very little on fuel bills with almost all energy-saving measures.”
“Floor insulation in a small two bedroom house would cost £4000 to £6000 and save £36 a year. With financials like this, it is easy to see why, to meet targets, the Government must impose potentially draconian rules and regulations to get us to improve our housing stock and reduce carbon emissions – without them, who would bother?
“Green targets are driving this, not a traditional business case. It will soon be time for landlords to decide whether they stay in the sector or quit now, before things get even more expensive."
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See also: Sunak ‘leading Tories to catastrophe’, bombshell poll shows
11) Transition to Net Zero ‘will cost UK universities £37 billion’
Times Higher Education, 11 July 2023
Higher education institutions in the UK will need to spend an average of nearly £125 million each to fully decarbonise, a new report has estimated.
The total cost of reaching net zero for the entire sector has been put at more than £37 billion by The Cost of Net Zero, published by the Association of University Directors of Estates (AUDE), the British Universities Finance Directors Group (BUFDG) and the Alliance for Sustainability Leadership in Education (EUAC).
At £24.4 billion, costs embedded in the supply chain account for by far the most expensive area that institutions will need to tackle, with changes to the built environment costing a projected £6.5 billion and travel and transport decarbonisation £5.1 billion.
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The total cost of reaching net zero for the entire sector has been put at more than £37 billion by The Cost of Net Zero, published by the Association of University Directors of Estates (AUDE), the British Universities Finance Directors Group (BUFDG) and the Alliance for Sustainability Leadership in Education (EUAC).
At £24.4 billion, costs embedded in the supply chain account for by far the most expensive area that institutions will need to tackle, with changes to the built environment costing a projected £6.5 billion and travel and transport decarbonisation £5.1 billion.
Full story
12) Climate models come with ‘dangerous’ CO2 warming baked in, code review finds
The Daily Sceptic, 10 July 2023
The Daily Sceptic, 10 July 2023
Chris Morrison
The case against relying on computer models to back an insane global de-industrialisation campaign grows by the day.
In November 2021, one of the main programmers of the NASA climate model Gavin Schmidt told readers of the Spectator that the track record of models going back to the 1970s, “shows they have skilfully predicted the trends of the past decades”. Now that laughter has finally subsided, we have an expert analysis of NASA’s GISS Model E with its 441,668 lines of pre-historic (circa 1983) FORTRAN code. With water that doesn’t freeze and “negative” cloud cover, it is said that the claim the model is ‘physics-based’ is a term used in the same way that Hollywood producers say a movie is ‘based on a true story’.
The detailed examination has been written by the experienced computer programmer Willis Eschenbach and his paper Climate Models and Climate Muddles has been published by Net Zero Watch (NZW). Andrew Montford of NZW discussed the paper in a recent edition of the Daily Sceptic, noting that climate models are at the centre of the global warming scare and back all the weather alarms promoting the collectivist Net Zero project. But what if the climate models were all junk, he asked. Somewhat alarmingly, Eschenbach’s work shows “this is indeed the case”.
Eschenbach argues that the current crop of computer climate models are far from being fit to be used to decide public policy. To verify this, he says, you only need to look at the endless string of bad, failed, crashed-and-burned predictions they have produced. Pay them no attention, he cautions. “Their main use is to add false legitimacy to the unrealistic fears of the programmers.” If you write a model under the working assumption that carbon dioxide controls the temperature, then guess what you’ll get.
According to Eschenbach, climate models have a hard time replicating the amazing stability of the climate system. They are ‘iterative’ models, meaning the output of one timestep is used as the input for the next. As a result any errors are carried over, making it easy for models to spiral the Earth into fire and snow balls. NASA gets around polar water refusing to freeze and ‘negative’ amounts of cloud forming (what do minus-two clouds look like?) during model runs by replacing bad values with corresponding maximum or minimum values. “Science at its finest,” comments Eschenbach. He notes that he is not picking on just NASA. The same issues, to a greater or lesser extent, exist within all complex iterative models. “I’m simply pointing out that these are not ‘physics-based’ – they are propped up and fenced in to keep them from crashing,” he observes.
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The case against relying on computer models to back an insane global de-industrialisation campaign grows by the day.
In November 2021, one of the main programmers of the NASA climate model Gavin Schmidt told readers of the Spectator that the track record of models going back to the 1970s, “shows they have skilfully predicted the trends of the past decades”. Now that laughter has finally subsided, we have an expert analysis of NASA’s GISS Model E with its 441,668 lines of pre-historic (circa 1983) FORTRAN code. With water that doesn’t freeze and “negative” cloud cover, it is said that the claim the model is ‘physics-based’ is a term used in the same way that Hollywood producers say a movie is ‘based on a true story’.
The detailed examination has been written by the experienced computer programmer Willis Eschenbach and his paper Climate Models and Climate Muddles has been published by Net Zero Watch (NZW). Andrew Montford of NZW discussed the paper in a recent edition of the Daily Sceptic, noting that climate models are at the centre of the global warming scare and back all the weather alarms promoting the collectivist Net Zero project. But what if the climate models were all junk, he asked. Somewhat alarmingly, Eschenbach’s work shows “this is indeed the case”.
Eschenbach argues that the current crop of computer climate models are far from being fit to be used to decide public policy. To verify this, he says, you only need to look at the endless string of bad, failed, crashed-and-burned predictions they have produced. Pay them no attention, he cautions. “Their main use is to add false legitimacy to the unrealistic fears of the programmers.” If you write a model under the working assumption that carbon dioxide controls the temperature, then guess what you’ll get.
According to Eschenbach, climate models have a hard time replicating the amazing stability of the climate system. They are ‘iterative’ models, meaning the output of one timestep is used as the input for the next. As a result any errors are carried over, making it easy for models to spiral the Earth into fire and snow balls. NASA gets around polar water refusing to freeze and ‘negative’ amounts of cloud forming (what do minus-two clouds look like?) during model runs by replacing bad values with corresponding maximum or minimum values. “Science at its finest,” comments Eschenbach. He notes that he is not picking on just NASA. The same issues, to a greater or lesser extent, exist within all complex iterative models. “I’m simply pointing out that these are not ‘physics-based’ – they are propped up and fenced in to keep them from crashing,” he observes.
Full post
The London-based Net Zero Watch is a campaign group set up to highlight and discuss the serious implications of expensive and poorly considered climate change policies. The Net Zero Watch newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.netzerowatch.com.
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