In 1980 Rt Hon Rob Muldoon (as he was then) responding to Bob Jones (as he was then), demonstrated astonishing prescience, when he said that by 2030 the population of NZ (which at the time was 3 million) would be 2 million. (1)
He went on to describe “a future world in which national barriers were virtually non-existent, in which trade and people flowed freely” and the huge cities which at the time were generally regarded as “dangerous and unpleasant, would instead become meccas of excitement”, whereas NZ would become, “a quiet retreat, its youth and its vitally creative people constantly moving abroad, particularly to Australia”.
Sir Rob (as he came to be known) then said to Sir Bob (as he came to be known), that NZ would evolve into either, “a prosperous, highly attractive idyll life like the south of England or an impoverished and spartan Scottish Highlands - type backwater.”
Rural reconnaissance of territory to the west of State-Hi-way 1 north from the Auckland harbour bridge to Kaitaia, while acknowledging glimpses of higher living standards, too often presents vistas perilously close to Muldoon’s prophesy of a “backwater”, and its highly probable that similar vistas present, wherever one may wander across rural NZ on a Sunday drive.
Meanwhile, the massive clutter of containerised housing in metropolitan zones, forebodes, slums in the making.
As to Muldoon’s claim of exodus, according to provisional figures from Statistics New Zealand, 131,200 people left New Zealand in the year to June 2024, the highest number on record. With outward migration at unprecedented levels, experts fear that many of those leaving may not come back.
“It’s off the charts. We haven’t seen this number of New Zealanders leaving before,” said one expert. (2)
According to Sir John Glubb’s thesis, The Fate of Empires & Search for Survival, (3) the average length of an Empire’s greatness, (trawling as he does from Assyria 859-612 BC to the British Empire 1700 – 1950), is 250 years
Glubb concludes the rise & fall of great nations seems to follow sudden outburst by extraordinary displays of courage and energy, often by the poor, hardy and above all aggressive, as the decaying empires wallow in a “cult” of self-indulgence, neglect and arrogance.
Applying this theory to modern history, Karl Marx may have produced the bible for the rapidly growing underclass of industrialisation and a cult of capitalist bourgeois, supporting a monarchist system of absolute power, whereas the Treaty of Versailles post WW1 subjugation of the damaged empire of Germany, created opportunity for Hitler’s Nazis.
After the stage of Pioneers (outburst and overthrow) of Empires, comes the Age of Commerce, followed by Affluence & Intellect, leading to, Decadence and Influx of Foreigners. (4)
By 2040 as a nation state, NZ will be nearing the average time limit for extinction of Empires. Irrelevant to a mere antipodean outpost of the now dead British Empire, this may seem, but factors contributing to the demise of Empires, as calculated by Glubb, may be a clarion ignored at one’s peril.
“Outbursts” or “Revolt”, within an Empire, by ethnicities who tire of being subjugated, emerge as one factor precipitating a changing-of-the-guard.
“Religion” has often been the cause of war. One of many examples was the ascendancy of Prophet Mohammed uniting Arabs (A.D. 613 -632) who were despised as backward inhabitants of Arabia, to overthrow the Persian Empire and within 70 years of the death of the Prophet, the Arabs had established a new empire – from the Atlantic coast of Spain to India in the East.
In NZ some pseudo-Māori leaders insist that Sovereignty was never ceded to the Crown and that the “white man” has subjugated Māori ever since 1840 condemning them forever to an underclass.
Some pseudo leaders threaten civil war, unless they are accorded special status and privileges - be it priority in the queues at medical facilities (which but for Asian health worker immigrants would be near the bottom of third world health services – not the top of third world where NZ now languishes), ownership of Crown owned Maritime zones and avoiding due punishment for crimes.
A “dominating master-class”, has been cause of revolt. In 1211 Genghis Khan rebelled invading its dominating neighbour – the Jin dynasty of China. By 1253 the Mongols had established the largest territorial empire the world has ever known.
Some empires were defeated not from “within” but from outside.
Motivated not by quest for freedom or equality, The Huns for example ravaged, raped and looted the greater part of Europe from AD 450 -453. However, the Huns empire, was short-lived as it fell apart when Attila died 453. This history suggests that Empires that survived the initial wars, where not motivated by purely by plunder, as were the Huns.
Conversely, the Romans for example, built itself upon the remnants of the Greeks civilization, which had been weakened by constant waring between the city states and made it difficult to unite against a common enemy – like Rome.
A factor common to all Empire declines, has been – Mathew 10.36. or preferring as I do (being a Pagan) Sir Wallace Rowlings version: “In politics it’s not the enemy you need to worry about. You can see them. It’s your friends, they come from behind.”
Predicated on self-belief, perhaps altruism, and definitely the desire to “Make our Country Great” (shades of Donald Trump?), Rome built its Empire on the enduring historical pillars of Greek scientific advance and civilization.
Commercial expansion follows victory over the vanquished.
Land, offered for ownership following conquests, acts as a stimulant to commerce, with the more enterprising among the populace, producing products for sale, investment in technology and acquisition of more land. Over generations, this creates immense wealth within a class of society which increasingly becomes self-indulgent – and latently despised by the majority, rather than admired.
For the growing “underclass”, a “welfare state” is supported by taxation, paid by the majority and avoided by the “affluent class”.
Palaces, Lamborghinis, Arts, Culture and hereditary wealth. The “Age of Affluence” is one of frivolity, arts, self-indulgence, corruption and sensual pleasures, all of which herald the “High Noon” of all Empires. (5)
As evident as was this sensual decay in Rome, in America this century, Jeffery Epstein and former fashion executive Mike Jeffries profile while in the backwater of NZ Sir Ron Brierly, Sir James Wallace, loom as local examples of this conduct amongst the affluent. (x)
Meanwhile, the borders of Dying Empires, become destinations for foreigners seeking to share this affluence.
Whereas “Victory at Dunkirk” in 1939, the sinking of HMS Repulse & Prince of Wales near Singapore 1942, India’s eviction of the British Monarchy 1947 and the Mau Mau rebellion in Kenya 1955 may have signalled the end of Great Britian’s Empire, and the defeats France in 1954 at Dien Bien Phu in its Vietnam colony and the 1962 loss of Algeria, foreshadowed the end of French hegemony, the legacy of periods of opulence, arrogance and neglect, now plague both countries i.e. the “influx of foreigners”.
From Iraq & Syria where USA and UK launched “unlawful wars” (according to UN boss Koffi Annan) (6) thousands of refugees trapse through EU states (another short-lived Empire now divided by National interests superseding “collective European Unity”) to wait at Dunkirk for another evacuation across le Manche (English Channel).
More than 27,500 people had crossed the Channel in 2024, as of 16 October. The total is more than for the same period in 2023. (7)
The same curse of Affluent Empires also plagues America, where millions of Central and South American underclasses, tread dangerous pathways to safety and security in USA. (8)
Italy faces a similar problem from illegal African boaties, crossing the Mediterranean. (9)
Germany (10) and Sweden (11), two countries who were among the first and most vocal to invite refuges, now face growing opposition to large enclaves of Middle East cultures. Sweden reportedly has No Go zones for police, due to the power of the asylum seeker mobs.
In New Zealand, (since the Muldoon Dawn Raids mid 1970s) illegal immigrant are not an issue. Legal migration, however, does expose the Land of the long White Cloud, to becoming a suburb of Asia (includes India).
Glubb’s thesis portends that the foreign invasion by immigrants, creates societies within the culture upon which the Empire was nurtured. Often ostracised by the traditional base of an Empire (or in the case of NZ, a country), these “foreigners” form their own communities - espousing their religions and protecting their cultures.
As one example, Indian citizens have continued to be the largest contributor to the country's population growth, with 41,100 migrants entering New Zealand in the year to July, totalling 317,500 according to latest figures from Stats NZ. In Howick, an Auckland suburb, Asians account for 52% of the population.
Such groups align with a political benefactor until they from their own political wing.
MMP in NZ ensures that the evolution of Glubb’s clarion will result in minor political parties representing the best interests of that “foreign culture”, above the interests of diminishing state and/or decaying empire.
Is this to be the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow?
During my third and final term as an MP, whilst driving, through the Maungatapere farmlands in the centre of my Hobson Electorate, where my strongest voter base resided, I saw a rainbow – creeping closer every second.
Suddenly, it was upon me; the royal blue bonnet of my Under-Secretary entitlement – 1993 Ford Fairmont Crown Car, was flooded with colours – the end of the rainbow.
As I pen this true memory, I can attest, there is no gold at the end of the rainbow.
Addendum:
Notwithstanding this Glubb prophesy predicated as it is on the historical decline of Empires, ironically perhaps, in the author’s opinion, immigrants from India, Asia and South East Asia, have been and currently provide, a cornerstone of commerce and public health services and it may well be the manifestation of their influence via minor political parties, which protects New Zealand from the divisive and nation destroying pledges of some radical pseudo-Māori leaders.
Ross Meurant BA MPP Former Police Inspector. Former Member of Parliament. Former Diplomatic Representative. Current partner www.gena.co.nz
(1) Jones, Robert. Memories of Muldoon, Canty Uni, 1997.
(2) https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/9/5/new-zealands-young-are-departing-in-record-numbers-as-cost-of-living-bites#:~:text=According%20to%20provisional%20figures%20from,before%20the%20COVID%2D19%20pandemic.
(3) Glubb, John. The Fates of Empires & Search for Survival, Blackwood, 1979.
(4) Ibid.
(5) Ibid
(6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_the_Iraq_War
(7) https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-53699511
(8) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico%E2%80%93United_States_border_crisis
(9) https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2016/08/world/dangerous-migrant-crossings-mediterranean/
(10) https://www.reuters.com/article/world/german-far-right-protesters-clash-with-opponents-over-refugees-idUSKCN0PZ0MO/
(11) https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/07/swedens-immigration-stance-has-changed-radically-over-the-last-decade.html
(x) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Jeffrey_Epstein
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgj4j05wy31o
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/ron-brierley-an-insight-into-the-mind-and-crimes-of-a-fallen-knight-of-the-realm/ZJUVXQBOO525DP2KTSWC5LOUC4/#google_vignette
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sir-james-wallace-case-top-nz-institutions-move-to-distance-themselves-from-unmasked-convicted-sex-offender/YVGAFFMRWNDE3MD4LLMO7M5WJQ/
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