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Wednesday, June 4, 2025

David Farrar: May 2025 1 News Verian poll


The 1 News Verian poll is:

Vote:
  • National 34% (-2% from April)
  • Labour 29% (-3%)
  • Greens 12% (+2%)
  • ACT 8% (-1%)
  • NZ First 8% (+1%)
  • TPM 3.7% (+0.3%)
Seats:
  • National 43 (-5 from election)
  • Labour 37 (+3)
  • Greens 15 (nc)
  • ACT 10 (-1)
  • NZ First 10 (+2)
  • TPM 6 (nc)

Govt:
  • CR 63
  • CL 58

Preferred PM:
  • Luxon 23% (nc)
  • Hipkins 19% (-1%)
  • Peters 6% (-1%)
  • Swarbrick 5% (+1%)
  • Seymour 4% (+1%)

Economic Outlook next 12 months:
  • Better 41% (+2%)
  • Same 38% (-2%)
  • Worse 21% (nc)
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders

8 comments:

Robert Arthur said...

it never ceases to amaze how the Greens rank, dspite all. I suspect thet very many assume from the name that they are still primarily a nature conservation party. And whatever TPM do, to the many ineffectually educated but insurgency indoctrinated followers, no behaviour is too pre civilisation or otherwise gross.

Anonymous said...

Thought the uniparty ,,right,, would decline more and uniparty ,,left,, plus tpm wpuld be up more because so many here want more for themselves and to take it off those they consider ,,rich,,

Barend Vlaardingerbroek said...

Robert Arthur, an interesting insight into the composition of the Green Party support base is provided by this 2015 paper in the NZ Journal of Psychology: 'Identifying Distinct Subgroups of Green Voters: A Latent Profile Analysis of Crux Values Relating
to Green Party Support' (Cowie, Greaves & Sibley), available at https://www.psychology.org.nz/journal-archive/Article-51.pdf.

Robert Arthur said...

Thanks Barend. I got to the Ropu Matai Hinengaro o Aotearoa website with all its pro maori commitment statements, but not the pages. Maybe just as well. It is already a bleak depressing day.

Barend Vlaardingerbroek said...

Robert Arthur, copy the whole URL I sent above and paste and a PDF file will come up that is the scholarly article in question.

Anonymous said...

Greens +2???? What is wrong with people!!!! They rank lowest on my S list.

mudbayripper said...

The real worry is, even if these poles are anywhere near accurate, New Zealand is in real trouble.
There is only one party truly concerned about supporting democratic values, and there at 8%. What hope is there.
Any country is only as good as the people who live there. I'm afraid, and I hate to say it, these poles only go to highlight the average New Zealanders level of political understanding, and it ain't encouraging.


Anonymous said...

Allowing the 50% of those to the left of the intelligence bell curve to vote is rather like staffing an explosives factory with the same group. What could possibly go wrong?