Breaking Views: Ani O'Brien: A week is a long time

Trump’s peace deal and the “ceasefire” crowd’s convenient silence

Israel has ratified a US-brokered ceasefire-and-hostage deal with Hamas. Whatever you think of Trump, this is the ceasefire everyone has been calling for. It was what our Government has been advocating for and it is what activists have been shouting for. Funny how now we have it, those who have protested so disruptively and been the loudest “ceasefire now” voices now have nothing to say. These high and mighty moral grandstanders don’t even care about a ceasefire enough to set aside their hatred for the “orange man” for a few minutes to back a real chance at peace. Helen Clark at least has managed a celebratory tweet even if she has not acknowledged the architect of the deal:

“One can only feel an enormous sense of relief that the 1st phase of the plan for #Gaza has been agreed. While the road ahead will be difficult, for the hostages & prisoners & detainees to be released & their families, this news is tremendous.” - Helen Clark

Winston Peters, the flotilla, Acacia O’Connor & One New Zealand

While the peace deal was negotiated, drama was high here in New Zealand with pro-Palestine protesters gathering outside Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ home. The activists were performing outrage about three New Zealanders involved in the Global Sumud flotilla which was detained in waters off Israel. One particular activist, Acacia O’Connor, repeatedly told her thousands of Instagram followers the address of the Foreign Minister and called for more people to join the protest. The next day Greens’ co-leader Chloe Swarbrick introduced Acacia at a press conference and stood next to her as she addressed the media about her concern for the trio whose safety had already been established and travel home arranged. They were so safe that two of them decided to decline the food Israeli officials were providing and stage a “hunger strike”. Acacia O’Connor’s close ties to the Green Party didn’t come to light until after a man used a crowbar to smash a window at Winston Peters’ property and left a note reading “welcome to the real world.” Peters’ dog was showered in glass and partner was subsequently cut. Police have since charged a 29-year-old man who has appeared in court.

The spotlight fell on Acacia O’Connor and her current role as a main character in a large One New Zealand advertising campaign. The telco announced that they are removing the actor-activist from the advertising. Acacia has been a vocal and public pro-Palestine activist for some time and this has not concerned executives at One New Zealand, but endangering Peters and his family by doxxing him was too much for them. Chloe Swarbrick, who at last look remains mutual friends with Acacia on Instagram, says she doesn’t know her very well. She says she knows lots of protestors.

The Greens lose the plot (again and again)

It seems that the Greens could stand in Queen Street and shoot someone dead on camera and they will still get 10% of the vote. Chloe Swarbrick has been in a deranged death spiral all year appearing wild eyed, frothing, and unhinged in Parliament and the media. Ryan Bridge gave Swarbrick the most thorough rebuke she has likely ever received on Herald Now this week. He raised the lack of responsibility she was taking for the way she was ramping up tensions and how it looked a lot like incitement. He pointed out that she has repeatedly lectured the country about the power and danger of words and yet she won’t admit the impact of her own.

Green co-leader Marama Davidson has been relegated to Swarbrick’s shadow (at least she hasn’t been forced to share the dog house with Julie Anne Genter just yet) but she too got in on the action this past week, sharing a video posted by lawyer Tania Waikato in which she announces she is running for Parliament and that it will be difficult not to punch David Seymour and Winston Peters. This was repeated in the caption. Davidson wouldn’t apologise. What’s a little bit of overt violence against ministers eh?

If a centre-right MP had amplified that kind of thing about Ardern or Hipkins, we’d still be having emergency press conferences about “toxicity in right wing politics.” The media, apart from independent journalist Chris Lynch, have been disinterested in this.

Adding to the chaos, the Green Party’s director of communications, Louis Day, has resigned, telling journalists in an email that after the recess it felt like the right time to step away; his last day on precinct is next Thursday, and he started in the role in June 2024. His exit comes just weeks after chief of staff Eliza Prestidge-Oldfield quit. Another sign of continued churn around the co-leaders after a tumultuous term.

Te Pāti Māori “reset” lasted mere minutes

We were promised calm. We got chaos. John Tamihere and his Te Pāti Māori have refused to answer questions all week saying they are resetting and focused on Orinii Kaipara. But instead of a turning point, we saw more of the same as after Orinii Kaipara’s maiden speech ran longer than allowed, order in the House dissolved and the usual drama and theatrics started. Again the party engaged in haka and demonstration that had not been prearranged with the Speaker’s office. This was deliberate as they have now placed themselves back on a collision course with the Privileges Committee. What a waste of time for everyone. Haka have to be prearranged not because the House thinks haka are invalid but because any demonstration, celebration, or the like, has to be prearranged to ensure the order and smooth running of Parliament. These things disrupt and create delays, and if everyone just partook in them willy nilly it would result in millions of wasted minutes and dollars each year. It is basic respect for taxpayers and for their colleagues in other parties. It is not racism or anti-Māori.

Te Pāti Māori civil war continues

As I say, the promised a post-turmoil “reset” was so short-lived it barely survived one “Kia ora, e te Whare”. Internal peace in the party is far from on the horizon. Co-leader Rawiri Waititi talked about “steadying the waka,” but his forceful removal of his co-leader from a media stand up more than raised eyebrows. There is desperation to get back control of the narrative especially since the NZ Herald piece by Audrey Young that laid out some of the inconvenient facts of the situation of her demotion. I have personally heard from multiple Government MPs who agree with Young’s assessment of Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. They say that although she has been inflammatory in the House, she seems to be the only one in the party who takes her Parliamentary duties seriously. She is also willing to entertain cross-party consensus and collaboration. Mariameno Kapa-Kingi herself has publicly confirmed her demotion, pushed back on the narrative around her performance, and aired concerns about the party environment.

Things must be very tense in the TPM caucus room, but they are also very tense for Chris Hipkins and Labour who need Te Pāti Māori as coalition partners to have any hope of winning the election next year. Hipkins has condemned recent chaos because he has been forced to, but he will be desperate for them to sort themselves out.

Mark Carney’s Net-Zero Banking Alliance folds

The UN-backed Net-Zero Banking Alliance (NZBA), a flagship arm of now-Canadian PM Mark Carney’s GFANZ project, has voted to cease operations immediately after a series of big-name exits. At its peak the alliance corralled nearly 150 banks behind Paris-aligned portfolio targets, but members cited rising antitrust and litigation risk and shifting political winds as reasons to pull the plug. The closure means NZBA won’t function as a member club anymore; instead, its technical guidance will be left online as a public “framework” that banks can use “if they want.”

Climate NGOs are furious, while finance types note the obvious: that it was always going to collide with competition law and elections.

Candidate alleges Electoral Commission has been referred to police

Robin Grieve, who has been a candidate in local and general elections, says the Electoral Commission has been referred to Police for breaching the Local Electoral Act by promoting Māori wards during live referenda. He says he laid a complaint and was advised of this. Act MP Cameron Luxton has exposed the Commission for promoting a particular outcome in Māori Wards referenda also. The Commission is in dire straits if it thinks its conduct has been appropriate of late and has a lot to answer for in terms of lost public confidence and trust. Staff clearly do not take seriously enough their job to ensure fair elections and protect democracy.

Illegal sign at a Whangarei polling station

Mortgage rates: sub-4% in sight

On 8 October, the RBNZ surprised markets with a 50bp cut to the Official Cash Rate, taking it to 2.5% and signalling it’s open to cutting again if needed to keep inflation anchored around the 2% midpoint. Most economists were expecting 25bp, but markets had already priced a non-trivial chance of 50bp, and a sizeable minority of forecasters were calling for it, so it wasn’t a total shock.

Banks moved fast: the majors now have one-year “specials” around 4.49%, with several brokers and bank economists saying 3.99% is plausible within months if inflation keeps easing. For households rolling off 2023–24 fixes that start with a “6”, that’s meaningful relief.

What could this mean for the economy? Cheaper mortgages free up disposable income and should allow for more discretionary spending. Politically, the move gives the Government some oxygen heading into Budget 2026; lower mortgage bills and easing rates take heat out of the cost-of-living story.

Adrian Orr’s never-ending golden handshake

Adrian Orr’s departure from the RBNZ keeps getting pricier. The Reserve Bank’s 2025 annual report discloses a $416,120 “restraint-of-trade” payment to the former Governor, on top of $766,180 in remuneration. That’s $1.182m all up for the period. What trade were we worried about restraining? Finance Minister Nicola Willis says the payout was contractual, but it’s still a grim look in a cost-of-living squeeze. Orr resigned in March off the back of poor performance and behaviour with years left on his term, and the bank has been navigating the fallout ever since.

If we don’t want repeats of this, we have to fix the rules. Ban restraint-of-trade sweeteners for top public roles and use garden leave instead; cap any ex-gratia or severance for senior officials; require Public Service Commission approval for unusual clauses; and mandate full, proactive disclosure of pay-offs and contract terms (not just buried in annual reports). Add cooling-off periods and clawbacks where performance or conduct is in question. In short, stop senior public servants being able to take the Government, and taxpayers, to the cleaners when they’re moved on.

Procurement reboot: fewer hoops, more delivery

The Government has pushed through a procurement “reboot” that cuts the rules from 71 to 47 and replaces the old “broader outcomes” regime with a new Economic Benefit to New Zealand test that must carry at least a 10% weighting in every tender. The updated Government Procurement Rules take effect 1 December 2025. It keeps the familiar thresholds (rules apply to goods, services and refurbishment more then $100k, and new construction more than $9m) and adds an expectation that below-threshold contracts go to capable local firms. MBIE will monitor compliance and start six-monthly reporting on how agencies are applying the economic-benefit rule.

What changes in practice? Less box-ticking on social(DEI)/green add-ons, more weight on jobs, NZ supply chains and training when value stacks up. The “broader outcomes” bundle is explicitly removed and decarbonisation targets are no longer hard-wired via mandatory building ratings; agencies can still require them where they deliver public value. The pitch is speed and simplicity. If roads, software and hospital kit start landing on time and on budget under the leaner rulebook, the reboot did its job; if not, it’s just new paperwork with a different label.

Government trips over its own shoelaces

The Government managed to snatch embarrassment from the jaws of an easy win this week. During the third reading of the Broadcasting (Repeal of Advertising Restrictions) Amendment Bill, the tidy little law change that scraps the old bans on TV/radio ads on certain Sundays and public holidays, the vote was nullified because the whips didn’t have enough Government MPs physically in the chamber. This resulted an invalid vote, and the bill was left hanging until it can be rescheduled. Seriously embarrassing, but Opposition parties have lowered the bar so much this week that this is barely blip on the radar.

Cosplay over competence: Wellington’s $7000 exit wound

Only in Wellington do you end a term with a $7000 oil painting you weren’t supposed to get. Council staff “misunderstood” their own 2023 guidance which said use a photo for cost and speed, and commissioned a canvas anyway. It’s not just pricey; it’s out of step with practice. No mayor has had a painted portrait since Kerry Prendergast in 2011. Ratepayers got a vanity piece where a headshot would’ve done, a perfect epitaph for a mayoralty mired by egotism and drama.

And the weak excuses were undermined by the artist himself posting on Instagram that he was “honoured to have Tory fight to have a painting done by a local Wellington artist.” So while the council blames an internal mix-up, the public sees a pattern, rules say “photo,” but Tory Whanau says “treat yourself.” Then, as the paint dries, we get the next act: talk of a run for Parliament with the Greens. Wellington isn’t a launchpad or a TED Talk. It’s a city that needs competence, not cosplay. The $7000 “whoops” is the closing shot, and the audition tape, for a career that always put performance ahead of delivery.

Good ol’ suitandtie9999 shared this on X.

In short - other stuff that happened:

Former minister Stuart Nash fired off sweary texts to Trade Minister Todd McClay after being dumped from a US trade trip over Nash’s crude remarks about women; OIA-released messages show the exchange.

Ex-Tipene Funerals undertaker (and former Casketeers TV personality) Fiona Bakulich won a sentence reduction on appeal after a judge found the original term “manifestly excessive,” leading to her release to home detention.

Police charged a 19-year-old with threatening to kill an MP after alleged death threats to Benjamin Doyle; the teen appeared in the Manukau District Court.

A firefighter was hospitalised needing four surgeries to repair a “destroyed” left eye after being attacked by a magpie in an Auckland park.

Nestlé quit the Dairy Methane Action Alliance, the latest blow to climate-club style pledges, saying it will still pursue its own emissions plan.

In the Cherri Global collapse, the Government was revealed as the company’s largest external creditor.

Fonterra agreed to sell its Mainland/Anchor consumer businesses to Lactalis for around NZ$4.22b (including Australian licences), with a farmer vote and approvals still to come; Winston Peters is blasting the deal.

Ministers asked NIFFCo to test selling the Crown’s UFB securities in Chorus to recycle capital into Budget 2026 projects; Labour calls it “hocking off the family silver.”

Wellington chef Aakash Aakash, 27, was arrested at end of last year for a serious sexual assault, during which he bit a woman’s nipples so hard they bled. While out bail he masturbated publicly on a bus. He has been sentenced to 27 months in prison.

Mt Albert Grammar (my old school) is floating a split into a middle-and-senior model to relieve pressure and modernise delivery.

Household saving rises in the June 2025 quarter $655 million to $804 million

Household saving shows how much households are saving out of their current net disposable income that is, current income less current consumption.

Stuff I found interesting this week:

In full terf mode, I was appalled and intrigued by Jenny Ruth’s reporting on LAVA vs Wellington Pride and her subsequent punishment by the Human Rights Tribunal. I was also heartbroken to watch the testimonies of a couple of New Zealand’s detransitioners. Thank you to Bob McCroskie and Family First for drawing attention to the issue.