Below is the ratios of those charged with murder, to their share of the population. So a number below 1 means they are charged with murder less than their share of the population and above 1 means charged more.
1. 55-59: 0.2
2. 65+: 0.2
3. European: 0.3
4. Women: 0.4
5. Asian: 0.4
6. Under 20 0.7
7. 50-54: 1.0
8. 40:44: 1.1
9. Pacific: 1.2
10. 35-39: 1.2
11. Men: 1.6
12. 45-49: 1.8
13. 20-24: 2.0
14. 30-34: 2.1
15. 25-29: 2.8
16. Māori: 3.7
So ethnicity is the most powerful factor, followed by age and then gender. I am surprised that gender is so much less than the others.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
So ethnicity is the most powerful factor, followed by age and then gender. I am surprised that gender is so much less than the others.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
10 comments:
Almost 100% of serious crime reports from trials to appeals against sentencing in the msm and Wellington police’s facebook page for arrest warrants (do not approach) would summarily support your figures .. totally.
Perhaps the only section (crime, courts) where msm can’t totally stop the ethnic whitewash and rewriting of history.
If an undergraduate had handed me this list as part of an assignment, I would have sent him/her packing with a flea in both ears and the demand that the data be systematically organised.
Good point Barend. Reverse the list and Maori would top the rankings.
Those numbers speak very loud.
Young Maori males top the murder list.
Doug, you would have to cluster the race, sex and age variables to be able to say that with any confidence (after also conducting an ANOVA which requires actual frequencies rather than descriptive summary stats). There are 2 sexes (phew!), 4 racial categories and 10 age groups. This gives us a total of 80 distinct clustered subsamples. Cut that down by reducing the number of age categories to say 3, and we have 24 clustered subsamples, still a lot but providing overall numbers are large enough, could give us statistically significant differences. However this is NZ not the US so totals would be a bit on the small side and we should add data from, say, 5 years running.
Fair comment, Barend.
Since Maori only make up approx 17% of the population, their "score" of 3.7 is only for that small population. If it was per whole population ,it would be something like 0.6 or 0.7.
The 'score' shouldn't change as it is in the form of a ratio.
Terrible methodology, but not even that, it omits causal factors that are already know and widely acknowledged i.e. poverty / childhood neglect / education / mental health issues. David Farrer it is no wonder you’re not even a member of RANZ. Embarrassing. What is the bar to get published on this site? It ain’t high!
Don’t forget weather conditions on the days murders happen. And the correlation vs whether the lotto jackpot went uncollected the preceding week. And whether the ABs lost their last match.
Another commentator’s gem on Farrer and statistics, this was on election polling:
“All pollsters take a margin of error of around 3.5 per cent but what The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia pollsters do is omit the percentages of the undecideds and don’t know’s which can increase the margin of error to as high as 9 per cent. Why? Well, it’s questions like that David Farrar refuses to answer.”
Again we have the issue of " who is a Maori " and falls into the above category.
My rule of thumb is that if they have a Maori name, that's good enough.
Abd when I glance through the Court (or should that be "Caught" ?) reports so many of the violent and anti social crimes are perpetrated by people with Maori names.
And Ardern, and TPM want seperate justice systems for them ????
How could that ever work ?
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