Labour’s policy to have taxpayers fund three GP visits a year to every NZer aged 15+ will be costly and will also make it much harder for people to see a GP.
The policy is not targeted towards low and middle income NZers. It will apply to everyone regardless of income or wealth. So every Labour MP will get taxpayer funded GP visits despite earning around $200,000 a year or more.
More concerning is that it will lead to even larger delays in actually being able to see a GP when you are sick. This is because when there is no charge for a service, people will use it more. Labour says (I have asked for independent data to verify this) that on average NZers see a GP 2.5 times a year. Well if taxpayers pay for three visits a year, you can be sure everyone will go three times a year at least, as almost no one is in perfect health and never has a concern or niggle.
With 3.6 million adults that is an extra 1.8 million visits a year. That would be a 13% increase in the number of GP visits a year. With 5,600 GPs, that would suggest an extra 720 GPs would be needed to just keep even.
I now have access to more detailed data, broken down by age. The average no of visits per age group is:
- 15-24: 2.1
- 25-34: 2.2
- 35-44: 2.1
- 45-54: 2.4
- 55-64: 2.8
- 65-74: 3.0
- 75+: 3.6
- 25-34: 0.8 x 710,000
- 35-44: 0.9 x 661,000
- 45-54: 0.6 x 625,000
- 55-64: 0.2 x 600,000
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
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