National’s leadership team have clearly come out of yesterday’s caucus meeting with very clear instructions: get the National Party vote back off New Zealand First. And they’ve come out hard.
It started with Nicola Willis on Mike Hosking just after 7am, warning that Winston Peters might pick Labour after the next election. The attack from her on that show was so pointed I was actually surprised - because these two are mates. They drink together, they work together, they’re on the same floor as each other in the Beehive.
But then, five hours later, the Prime Minister is on The Country with Jamie Mackay, saying almost exactly the same thing. Which tells you Nicola didn’t just react in the heat of the moment, coming off the high of what happened in caucus. These are the lines they’ve decided to go out with.
They have decided to attack New Zealand First. The question is: what took them so long?
Because this is what they needed to do months ago, when it became obvious they were bleeding votes to New Zealand First. That is what’s happening here. New Zealand First - and Winston - are going up and the National Party is going down because National voters are shifting across to New Zealand First.
Right now, 52 percent of Winston’s supporters voted National at the last election.
This is exactly the right strategy Nicola Willis and Chris Luxon should be taking - because it’s true. There is a risk that New Zealand First goes with Labour. Even though Winston says it ain’t going to happen, there is a risk.
He’s done it before. In 1996 he told voters to help him put, quote, “Jim Bolger in opposition where he belongs”. And who did he pick after that election? He picked Jim Bolger.
Of course, Winston’s not going to admit he’s open to Labour - even if he is - because then he can’t rely on stealing all of those National Party voters. They’re not going to go to him if they think he’s going to put Jacinda’s lot back in charge.
This is exactly the attack Luxon and Willis need to launch on New Zealand First if they want to keep their jobs by keeping the polling up.
So let’s see if it works. I reckon it might.
Watch the next poll. Watch for National going up and New Zealand First either going down or plateauing. That will tell us whether the fightback is working.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show.
5 comments:
I see Moodys downgrading the outlook for NZ to negative. They must’ve taken into account Luxon not getting rolled this week!
Too late and too little - National is woke under Luxon and unless & until they tackle that elephant head on, NZ First will continue to siphon white middle class votes from National.
A clear opposition to maorification, a cessation of multi million donations to Insurrection Propoganda and Coordination Centres (marae), a firm counter to co governance, a reversion to English names, to democartic process in Councils, hugely reduced te reo twaddle etc and Natoinal will recover votes from NZ First who few entirely trust in these areas.
What a terrible way to treat voters intelligence. Instead of saying "We will absolutely get rid of all co-governance" they say "NZF might go with Labour". NZF voters are already watching out for signs of the latter and will vote accordingly. I suspect most would go with ACT now, not National. The general comments I am reading everywhere is that ex-National voters won't be returning to the party.
As an aside, MSM opinion writers need to become proper journalists again and do some actual research. The articles are now so flippant as to be irrelevant.
NZF is not the 'enemy', the opposition is. Any bleeding of support to NZF is because National have failed to do what it purported to do and deal with co-governance. They need to do some root cause analysis (it is not hard), stop with the hubris and focus on what really matters to NZers.
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