New Zealand’s coastal climate change planning system is built on a simple legal standard: councils must plan for the likely effects of climate change, using the best available evidence.
But across the country, planning is being anchored to a future that scientists now say is implausible—and, legally, should never have been treated as “likely” in the first place.
Earlier this year, the international team responsible for the climate scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that the high‑emissions pathway SSP5‑8.5 has become implausible for the 21st century. That matters because this scenario has become deeply embedded in New Zealand’s planning system. It sits behind national guidance. It underpins the Ministry for the Environment’s coastal hazards framework. It is reflected in the sea level projections used by councils nationwide using the 'SeaRise' online tool. And it remains embedded in scientific studies relied on in the National Climate Change Risk Assessment—released only weeks ago. It also likely at the root of extreme forecasts that have become part of the popular discourse,
The problem is not just scientific. It is legal.
“Likely” does not mean “worst case”
Under the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement, councils must take account of the likely effects of climate change. The Climate Change Response Act uses the same test.
This is a mandatory legal standard. And it excludes outcomes that are merely possible—still less those now considered implausible.
Yet current guidance encourages planners to consider high‑end scenarios such as SSP5‑8.5. This risks introducing what administrative law calls an irrelevant consideration—a factor that distracts from the statutory test decision‑makers are required to apply.
There is a place for extreme scenarios. They are useful for stress‑testing infrastructure and exploring tail risks. But that is very different from using them as the basis for regulatory decisions. In fact, only by artificially inflating the warming effects from this implausible climate scenario, are scientists and planners able to detect the climate signal from natural variability. Let that sink in – only by manufacturing global warming are scientists able to tell the human caused effect from nature. Climate sceptics have been banging this drum for decades. Pat Michaels, the climate scientist for the state of Virginia for 27 years was heavily criticised for taking money from the fossil fuel industry (after being fired because he refused to toe the line). He self-described himself as a “lukewarmer.” He accepted the radiative effects of greenhouse gases but could not support the activist narrative of catastrophe because in his view, the radiative effects were manageable. It seems he was right.
A system built on the wrong assumption
There are real life consequences for continuing to believe in a scenario that IPCC lead author, and Canterbury University’s Professor Dave Frame, described as one “no one believes.”
In Kāpiti, modelling by consultants Jacobs Engineering—using high‑end assumptions based on SSP5‑8.5—identified thousands of homes as being at risk from coastal hazards. But when an independent review was undertaken by coastal scientist Dr Willem de Lange, using scenarios aligned with likely outcomes, the number of at‑risk homes fell to just 44.
That is not a technical quibble. It is the difference between targeted risk management and large‑scale planning intervention affecting entire communities.
The problem is not just scientific. It is legal.
“Likely” does not mean “worst case”
Under the New Zealand Coastal Policy Statement, councils must take account of the likely effects of climate change. The Climate Change Response Act uses the same test.
This is a mandatory legal standard. And it excludes outcomes that are merely possible—still less those now considered implausible.
Yet current guidance encourages planners to consider high‑end scenarios such as SSP5‑8.5. This risks introducing what administrative law calls an irrelevant consideration—a factor that distracts from the statutory test decision‑makers are required to apply.
There is a place for extreme scenarios. They are useful for stress‑testing infrastructure and exploring tail risks. But that is very different from using them as the basis for regulatory decisions. In fact, only by artificially inflating the warming effects from this implausible climate scenario, are scientists and planners able to detect the climate signal from natural variability. Let that sink in – only by manufacturing global warming are scientists able to tell the human caused effect from nature. Climate sceptics have been banging this drum for decades. Pat Michaels, the climate scientist for the state of Virginia for 27 years was heavily criticised for taking money from the fossil fuel industry (after being fired because he refused to toe the line). He self-described himself as a “lukewarmer.” He accepted the radiative effects of greenhouse gases but could not support the activist narrative of catastrophe because in his view, the radiative effects were manageable. It seems he was right.
A system built on the wrong assumption
There are real life consequences for continuing to believe in a scenario that IPCC lead author, and Canterbury University’s Professor Dave Frame, described as one “no one believes.”
In Kāpiti, modelling by consultants Jacobs Engineering—using high‑end assumptions based on SSP5‑8.5—identified thousands of homes as being at risk from coastal hazards. But when an independent review was undertaken by coastal scientist Dr Willem de Lange, using scenarios aligned with likely outcomes, the number of at‑risk homes fell to just 44.
That is not a technical quibble. It is the difference between targeted risk management and large‑scale planning intervention affecting entire communities.
Across New Zealand, similar approaches are being used by Councils to inform hazard mapping, LIM notations, and development restrictions. Tools like SeaRise continue to present projections derived from scenarios that no longer reflect what is considered plausible.
Unwinding that system will be difficult.
But leaving it in place is worse.
This will end up in court
Once planning decisions begin to impose large economic consequences, the legal position becomes unavoidable.
Developers, infrastructure providers and property owners will ask a straightforward question: how can an implausible scenario satisfy a statutory requirement to consider likely effects?
If there is no clear answer, judicial review will follow.
Courts will not decide climate science. But they will enforce the law. And the law requires decisions to be grounded in a rational evidential basis aligned with the statutory test.
The reset we now need
Fixing this will require more than a policy tweak.
It means re‑anchoring planning in plausible climate scenarios and revising national tools, such as SeaRise, and planning guidance. New Zealand’s legal framework is already clear. Now the science is too. The only question is whether the planning system will catch up—or whether it will be forced to, in court.
Sean Rush was an Eastern Ward Wellington City Councillor from 2019 to 2022 and stood for the Act party in the Otaki electorate in the 2023 general election. He was formerly a Director of the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators. This article was sourced HERE
Unwinding that system will be difficult.
But leaving it in place is worse.
This will end up in court
Once planning decisions begin to impose large economic consequences, the legal position becomes unavoidable.
Developers, infrastructure providers and property owners will ask a straightforward question: how can an implausible scenario satisfy a statutory requirement to consider likely effects?
If there is no clear answer, judicial review will follow.
Courts will not decide climate science. But they will enforce the law. And the law requires decisions to be grounded in a rational evidential basis aligned with the statutory test.
The reset we now need
Fixing this will require more than a policy tweak.
It means re‑anchoring planning in plausible climate scenarios and revising national tools, such as SeaRise, and planning guidance. New Zealand’s legal framework is already clear. Now the science is too. The only question is whether the planning system will catch up—or whether it will be forced to, in court.
Sean Rush was an Eastern Ward Wellington City Councillor from 2019 to 2022 and stood for the Act party in the Otaki electorate in the 2023 general election. He was formerly a Director of the Association of International Petroleum Negotiators. This article was sourced HERE
17 comments:
Fixing this also Means unbrainwasshing the brainwashed idiots and airheads like green and lefty councillors and government employees.
I mean it’s true, likely doesn’t mean worst case. There is a high degree of uncertainty however. Sea rise is already affecting the existence or citizens of other pacific islands. To do nothing, as this article appears to suggest, is very much Nemo writing misinformed blog posts while Rome burns.
Is Sean part of the coordinated campaign of climate lobbying that was reported in this week? Take pieces like this with a HEAVY grain of salt.
Common sense is a rare commodity and hardly ever utilised in both central and local governments. A prime example was when Christchurch City Council wasted ratepayer money by employing engineering consultants, Tonkin and Taylor in 2015, to deliver a flawed climate change scenario delivering outrageous sea level projections that downgraded 18,000 residential L.I.M. reports. This is a real example of how this implausible ideology has poisoned every facet of our lives with outright lies and blind obedience.
Rob you use the word implausible. I don’t think that word means what you think it means. You also use the word ideology, which also doesn’t mean what you think it means.
@anon 7:24 you need to start looking at the facts.
Al gore categorically stated we would all be u der water now - yet Wellington’s recorded none to 1mm sea level rise in the period since AG unleashed this climate BS in us.
The pacific islands under threat are also living on incredibly low lying islands and in subduing plate zones or without the necessary continual accretion and uplift that is the result of continuous volcanic activity.
Climate alarmism and the resulting government policies created by do gooders are more of a threat to humanity than global warming will ever be..
As is councils blaming human failure (of their own bureaucratic disasters) on climate change and passing on the resulting costs to ratepayers.
(Westport - failure to maintain the river mouth/ Gabriel - forestry slash/ Kapiti coast - flawed modelling / Wellington- failure to maintain storm water systems/ etc etc).
It begs the question as to why was the obviously most extreme (therefore at the least unlikely scenario) used to underpin our policies in the first place.
Where were the caveats to indicate this has low confidence of ever eventuating? Surely this isn’t meeting professional obligations when setting policy???
Bureaucrats do this modelling and even when irrefutable facts are given showing that the model is wrong, they will not budge
I have a flood area on part of my property. The centre of the flood area is 70mm lower than the dry area. So if there is a huge flood I might get my feet wet. Will the drop kick at the Council even consider a review. Either too thick or too stubborn
We are impoverishing ourselves with the climate ⏰ BS - and while we sacrifice our own country and our futures in the altar of bs the worlds biggest emitters keep on emitting….and the world carries on.
Meanwhile nz gets poorer, our manufacturing gone, our young people gone, our ability to recover continually diminishing.
The climate isn’t BS. The climate is everywhere all the time. You can’t deny that climate exists. Anon 246pm
@4:46 - of course the climate exists - and the climate has changed continuously for time immemorial- and will keep changing.
But the climate was changed long before “man” turned up - but now today we are so arrogant as to believe that swapping a few petrol cars for electric ones and producing endless solar and wind future landfill projects is somehow going to prevent the entire planets climate from changing ever again. All while only some people in some countries go along with the idea.
Anon 749 you know full well the topic is man’s pollution accelerating climate change well outside of natural causes. You turn your head away from facts and solutions. It won’t change the reality.
Insurance companies using RCP8.5 to determine risk levels and increase premiums accordingly? Will downgrade now to lower risk resulting in lower premiums? Good luck with that.
I would hide behind anonymity too after making a statement like that anonymous 9.13 pm. Have you ever wondered why public debate is forbidden? It’s because the truth doesn’t mind being questioned but a lie hates being challenged. You can’t reason with those that tune into their daily fix of MSM propaganda devoid of critical thinking.
"Sea rise is already affecting the existence or citizens of other pacific islands."
Physics says that if there is sea level rise, it'll be affecting everywhere in the world. It isn't possible to have differential sea level rise: water doesn't work that way. Tectonic subduction, or gradual erosion of volcanic and other islands will be causing rising seas in the west Pacific.
"Take pieces like this with a HEAVY grain of salt."
That would be most unwise. Rush's article is based on the decision of the IPCC, which has withdrawn the high‑emissions pathway SSP5‑8.5, because it's implausible for the 21st century. Best that you don't second-guess the IPCC decision. That pathway was never plausible, and it's been extensively challenged.
I've commented elsewhere that climate zealots often have a hostile reaction to dissenting opinions. I do wonder at that. Some of the responses to Sean Rush's article neatly illustrate that hostility. It looks as if those commenters are having a deeply-ingrained, almost religious, belief challenged. But climate science is just that: science. No belief necessary. Look at the evidence.
It will take a court case to force council's to stop using "implausible" climate change models to impose more onerous requirements on developers and residents. The activists (like Mike Smith and activist lawyers) have used the courts to impose their agenda. Now the shoe is on the other foot.
"It will take a court case...
I suspect that this is so. It's regrettable, but getting councils and the like to accept this sort of change is like turning the metaphorical tanker around. It takes a long, long time.
A family member opined that it'd take 6 months. Good luck with that, I said...
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