David Farrar: Heard that before

The Post reports:

Labour leader Chris Hipkins says he is not aiming to make state spending and taxation 33% of the economy, despite his party’s fiscal strategy suggesting it would eventually get there. …

National has attacked the 33% figure, arguing it shows that Labour will need to enact more than just the CGT, which is only expected to raise $1.5 billion within the forecast period ‒ which would not get anywhere close to raising revenue to 33%.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday following some of these attacks, Hipkins suggested 33% was more of a ceiling than a target.

I’ve heard that before – almost identically.

In 2017 Labour and Greens promised to cap spending at 30% of GDP. In the 2018 budget I noted (with approval) in the Budget lockup that spending was below 29% of GDP, and Grant Robertson replied that 30% was not ceiling, not a target.

Alas, it turned out to be neither, and Labour exceeded the so called ceiling by almost 4% of GDP.

If a ceiling of 30% turns into an actual of 34%, I can only imagine what a ceiling of 34% will turn into!

David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders