Some people, such as Nick Mowbray, have said one should try and do the same on the right.
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This is a very very very bad idea, for numerous reasons. Let me go through them.
1. This would mean National has no List MPs at all. That means you would replace Nicola Willis, Paul Goldsmith, possibly Chris Bishop with whoever is ranked No 17 or 15 on the NZ First or ACT party list. If you think that will make for a stronger centre right Government, you’re out of your mind.
2. It would also be profoundly undemocratic. The public will have a revulsion to any government that gets formed despite winning fewer votes than the opposition.
3. It creates an arms race, where all parties will then try to manipulate the system – Labour could try the same with Greens and TOP. You’ll end up with absolute chaos.
4. It permanently weakens National. If National is reduced to an electorate only party, with no List MPs, then its ability to bring talented people such as Tim Groser, Steven Joyce etc in is gone.
5. It treats National, NZ First and ACT as interchangeable parties. The fewer seats National has, and the more NZ First has, then the fewer policies National will get to implement – so expect lots more money for horse racing and MFAT, and no chance of plugging the deficit to get out of debt
The way you get a centre-right government is to have more people give their party vote to either National, ACT or NZ First, than to Labour, Greens, Te Pati Maori or TOP. It’s that simple.
If you want more National Party policies and Ministers, then choose National. If you want more ACT Party policies and Ministers, choose ACT. If you want more NZ First Party policies and Ministers, choose NZ First. But do not vote for ACT and NZ First if you actually want National Party policies and Ministers, on the basis of a cunning overhang plan. It won’t work, and will only damage National.
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
16 comments:
David is a very smart man, but he is wrong on this issue. The betting sites in Oz favour a win for the left. There is an article in today's Herald about Paul Henry. It is Premium, so you will have to buy a Herald if you do not have Premium.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/mmp-is-finally-showing-its-true-self-as-parties-accept-strategic-voting-editorial/premium/PTSP6YGZJZFALC5OWIJ4TEQXU4/
This is how MMP works. It is not undemocratic.
After years of National engineering their way into power by standing down a candidate in Epsom, it is heartening to see the hypocritical hand-wringing from right-wing mouthpieces such as Farrier on the topic when others realise politics has rules that anyone can play by. There is a saying that applies here: if they didn’t have double standards, they’d have no standards at all.
Someone has to make National do what we want it to do and it will not do it of it own volition, so we must give the coalition partners the force to make that happen.
You're right, Chuck. And just maybe, David, National wouldn't be facing this problem if it had damned well done what it said it was going to do? And I'm not talking of the economy (stupid?), I'm talking of the bloody Maorification of everything (which is truly costing this country a fortune), which never gets a mention on any poll. Why is that?
Dear David Farrar
As a voter I will make my own decision. We each have two votes and are free to vote as we choose which is how MMP is designed. The power must rest with an informed voting public.
Labour and co are uncomfortably close at present to governing. Maori Party are deliberately gaming the system to engineer the outcome in their favour. Based on your current advice positioned alongside the polling numbers Labour would potentially be handed the election by the vagaries of MMP. One would think that would be a poor outcome for National and the country.
May I also add that National are solely responsible for there still being separate Maori seats in an MMP environment, plus continue to deny the NZ public the right to remove said seats, thereby National are knowingly distorting the electoral system themselves. National are responsible for the current predicament.
There is time enough for support profiles to shift and voters will make their mark as they see fit at the opportune time. It is all theoretical at this time with two months to run.
National hasn’t delivered on promises. They also remain unmoved on a number of critical issues facing the country. National are not even stable within their own Party. Their polling support is consistently at a level below their command of electoral seats. Party vote National gains nothing presently and I am not about to waste the only power I have as a citizen.
I am considering too that it is high time we the public sent a message to National about their performance. We find ourselves in the unique position of doing so presently without opening the door for labour to govern. National are of closed mind to the will of the people. The NZ people have an opportunity to open said mind for them and National would do well to take notice.
NZs political environment has been out of balance for a very long time and has consistently failed to deliver prosperity. It has also been very damaging to society itself and National is equally responsible in that.
I will vote for what I think is ‘best for the nation’ over and above any Party considerations or indeed my own interests.
By the grace of God, may NZ find its way.
Three issues concerned voters these past three years. First, cost of living. Second, returning NZ's health care system to world class = fast & ultra high quality. Third, sorting the Treaty shambles which has created basic uncertainty in the laws that constitute our nation. Under the Nat led coalition the cost of living has risen sharply. So its a FAIL on the first. Health-care provision has declined. So its a FAIL on the second. The Treaty is more shambolic than ever with the PM having no position other than the status quo & window dressing. So its a FAIL on the third. Labour is worse. Our youngsters are making the intelligent decision to leave. An inbred group of non accountable incompetent chummy twats have taken "leadership" positions in both public & private sectors in NZ.
The mid-year Ipsos surveys indicated that the 'big 5' for voters this year were, in descending order, inflation/cost of living, health care, the economy, housing, and the fuel crisis (especially for younger voters). Only 4% of respondents placed race relations/Maori issues among their top three concerns.
Were the Ipsos survey issues open ended or were respondents given a list to choose from? How can we find out?
Barend, Robert is obviously talking about the subset of voters who frequent this site, not the regular folk who live and vote in NZ. In that case he might not even be right himself: ring fencing Maori culture and people is probably the number one voting issue for him and his ilk…not number three!
The problem for Luxon is that if National did now campaign on removing special privileges and funding for Maori, neutering the Waitangi Tribunal and removing unelected seats on various elected institutions etc , no one would believe them.
If National hadn't campaigned on those issues last time and failed to honour them, such policy might have won this election for them.
In reply to Barend, the Ipsos Big 5 in varying order have been on top of mind for voters over the last few years, outstripping race relations.
I suggest that there are two reasons for this: (1) that government economic policy consistently dominates the mainstream news; (2) that race relations are consistently framed as being the result of economic policy failure, never a potent contributor to it.
David , You have misread the public feeling . Clearly National will gain some party votes and will with some confidence retain most electorate seats.
However PM Luxon has failed NZ with his stupid ideology and hubris , therefore the intelligent, competent and practical voter will Party vote ACT or NZF as they have done in previous elections.
Nicola Willis, Goldsmith , Bishop etc may be collateral damage , but the PM should have thought about this for almost three years .
David Farrar - The Anglo Saxon video today on NZCPR is compulsory viewing for you please.
Having now found a copy of the Ipsos issues survey online, I dispute the 4% figure quoted by Barend. The race relations/ racisim figure is 6%, issues facing Maori is 4%, and on top of that, the poverty/inequality figure is 18%. As I thought its all in the way you ask the questions, respondants are asked to choose from pre determined headings, which may not match what people actually see as issues. An option labeled Treaty issues/activism might produce a somewhat more realistic result.
You are quite right, Anon 300. Most surveys are so poorly designed and/or administered that they are as dependable as reading a slaughtered goose's entrails.
Regarding Robert and Barend's comments above, while I respect the fact that polling may have the race relations/Maori and Treaty issues lower down in their perception of concerns, I would suggest that Pareto and his Principle have a huge bearing on matters. In my 75 years of bouncing around this Planet, I have always placed fiscal concerns in the category of being derivatives of all the other factors that affect our lives. Indeed as an engineer, I was taught that you never let Finance tell you how to spend the money and never let HR tell you who to employ. In other words finance is a result, not the driver and that makes conventional, modern day thinking utter bollocks. The Pareto Principle means you must focus your core energy on the 20% of vital tasks that drive 80% of your results, while reducing or ignoring the 80% of trivial distractions that waste your time. The Vital Few (The 20%) are high Impact factors. Focus on fixing these as small efforts will produce massive outcomes. The Trivial Many (The 80%) offer a relatively low return: Focus on these is wasted effort and adds very little true value. IMHO and experience, identify and fix the vital few as the trivial many will often just then go away. In our NZ context, I would posit that if we fix the race relations/Maori and Treaty issues, most of our other problems will go away because they are simply derivatives!
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