The arrogance of the National Party is reaching peak level nonsense. There was the still revered former leader John Key at the campaign launch telling the faithful that anything other than “two ticks National” could result in cabinet ministers from parties other than National.
Well blow me down with a feather. Isn’t that the whole point of a coalition government?
The National Party of 2026 still seem to think it’s 1976, that they are the ruling party by right and that if they’re not in power then maybe Labour can have a turn for a few short years before it’s back to blue.
But a combination of dreadful leadership, uninspiring policy and a significant departure from the party’s founding values means that National can never regain the past glory of support from more than 40 percent of New Zealanders, as they received as recently as 2017.
The latest poll puts them at 28 percent. It’s a pattern now. Here are the National numbers going back to polling starting on August 14:
28 ( 1News-Verian)
27 (Post-Freshwater)
30 (Anacta-Talbot Mills)
29 (Taxpayers Union-Curia)
31 (Roy Morgan)
29 (RNZ-Reid Research)
In case you can’t do the arithmetic quickly, the average is 29.
That means they’d be entitled to 35 seats in the parliament. They currently have 44 electorates. If they work hard in some tight races they could win 40 this time and create a five seat overhang.
It is an utter no-brainer that if National wish to be the lead party in the next coalition government they must encourage voters to split their ballot. Return as many National electorate MPs as you can and party vote Act or New Zealand First to ensure an overhang and a majority of centre-right MPs to form a government.
The alternative is just frightening.
Green Party cabinet ministers and state owned supermarkets ? Please.
Te Pati Maori as part of the executive with their racist and separatist ideas? No country has ever succeeded as a civilised nation with that thinking.
Anyway John Key, what would be so wrong about having some cabinet ministers who aren’t members of the National Party? It’s worked for the last three years.
For a start let’s think about the second most important role after Prime Minister, the Minister of Finance.
Nicola Willis has been dreadful in the role. She inherited a mess from Grant Robertson and the Labour Party and has done precious little to correct the slide. She started with tax cuts we couldn’t afford. She has failed to rein in government spending and borrowing to the stage where in actual dollars she’s borrowing more than the profligate Robertson was in 2022-23.
She’s just scared to make significant structural changes to our economic settings and incredibly wants to interfere in private business with an ill conceived policy to change the way Foodstuffs operate.
If National were to be the lead party of government again Nicola Willis won’t be back. It’s no great loss but then who becomes Minister of Finance?
With no Willis, and no Chris Bishop, the National Party would surely punt for Simeon Brown with his law and commerce degrees and a brief career in banking before becoming a baby faced politician nearly a decade ago.
But wouldn’t the person in the parliament most qualified to become Minister of Finance be sitting as a rookie in the New Zealand First caucus?
Craig Stobo was ousted from the chairmanship of the Financial Markets Authority because of a personal vendetta against him conducted by a now disgraced Chief Executive.
After an inquiry into his behaviour, the only sin Stobo was found guilty of was that he made political statements!
He’s about to become a high ranking member of the New Zealand First caucus and his background in finance and banking make him by far the most qualified person to run the country’s finances.
He’s already had a significant influence on the way we save as it was Stobo who developed the concept of a portfolio investment entity or PIE, the basis of the KiwiSaver scheme and it’s efficient tax regime.
Then we have his work in local government finance, in building a major finance business in BT Funds and chairing public companies. That sounds like the kind of economic brain I’d like as the Minister of Finance.
And to those who say, you can’t go straight into such an important role in your first term in parliament then think of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. His first job in politics was as the Liberal leader and then, when elected as an MP, he became the Prime Minister on the basis of his work as an economist and as Governor of the Bank of England.
The problem is that Christopher Luxon has such an ego that he won’t want anyone from another party in the Finance role. But then he’s the same guy who has said he doesn’t want “numpties from other parties” around the cabinet table.
As Darryl Kerrigan famously said all those years ago “tell ’im he’s dreamin.’ ”
When you’re leading a party that is not going to crack 30 percent in the party vote on election night there is only one way to be in government and that’s to have strong coalition partners.
New Zealand First and Act have the momentum, based on that 1News poll, to each crack double figures this election. That means around 21 or 22 percent together and about 25 seats.
Put that with National’s 40 electorates and you have 65 MPs from the centre right. In a parliament that could have up to 127 or 128 MPs because of the National overhang and the Te Pati Maori overhang (maybe 4 electorates with 1 percent of the party vote) that number of 65 is just enough to ensure a small majority.
We know it’s going to be a nail biting contest.
But National are not moving the dial between now and November 7 and gathering momentum in their party vote. That boat has sailed with the Luxon leadership.
Getting as many National electorate MPs over the line is now the only way to electoral success.
Blind Freddy can see it. The refusal of the National Party hierarchy to acknowledge the obvious is painful.
Do they actually want to lose ?
Peter Williams was a writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines. Peter blogs regularly on Peter’s Substack - Where this article was sourced.
But a combination of dreadful leadership, uninspiring policy and a significant departure from the party’s founding values means that National can never regain the past glory of support from more than 40 percent of New Zealanders, as they received as recently as 2017.
The latest poll puts them at 28 percent. It’s a pattern now. Here are the National numbers going back to polling starting on August 14:
28 ( 1News-Verian)
27 (Post-Freshwater)
30 (Anacta-Talbot Mills)
29 (Taxpayers Union-Curia)
31 (Roy Morgan)
29 (RNZ-Reid Research)
In case you can’t do the arithmetic quickly, the average is 29.
That means they’d be entitled to 35 seats in the parliament. They currently have 44 electorates. If they work hard in some tight races they could win 40 this time and create a five seat overhang.
It is an utter no-brainer that if National wish to be the lead party in the next coalition government they must encourage voters to split their ballot. Return as many National electorate MPs as you can and party vote Act or New Zealand First to ensure an overhang and a majority of centre-right MPs to form a government.
The alternative is just frightening.
Green Party cabinet ministers and state owned supermarkets ? Please.
Te Pati Maori as part of the executive with their racist and separatist ideas? No country has ever succeeded as a civilised nation with that thinking.
Anyway John Key, what would be so wrong about having some cabinet ministers who aren’t members of the National Party? It’s worked for the last three years.
For a start let’s think about the second most important role after Prime Minister, the Minister of Finance.
Nicola Willis has been dreadful in the role. She inherited a mess from Grant Robertson and the Labour Party and has done precious little to correct the slide. She started with tax cuts we couldn’t afford. She has failed to rein in government spending and borrowing to the stage where in actual dollars she’s borrowing more than the profligate Robertson was in 2022-23.
She’s just scared to make significant structural changes to our economic settings and incredibly wants to interfere in private business with an ill conceived policy to change the way Foodstuffs operate.
If National were to be the lead party of government again Nicola Willis won’t be back. It’s no great loss but then who becomes Minister of Finance?
With no Willis, and no Chris Bishop, the National Party would surely punt for Simeon Brown with his law and commerce degrees and a brief career in banking before becoming a baby faced politician nearly a decade ago.
But wouldn’t the person in the parliament most qualified to become Minister of Finance be sitting as a rookie in the New Zealand First caucus?
Craig Stobo was ousted from the chairmanship of the Financial Markets Authority because of a personal vendetta against him conducted by a now disgraced Chief Executive.
After an inquiry into his behaviour, the only sin Stobo was found guilty of was that he made political statements!
He’s about to become a high ranking member of the New Zealand First caucus and his background in finance and banking make him by far the most qualified person to run the country’s finances.
He’s already had a significant influence on the way we save as it was Stobo who developed the concept of a portfolio investment entity or PIE, the basis of the KiwiSaver scheme and it’s efficient tax regime.
Then we have his work in local government finance, in building a major finance business in BT Funds and chairing public companies. That sounds like the kind of economic brain I’d like as the Minister of Finance.
And to those who say, you can’t go straight into such an important role in your first term in parliament then think of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. His first job in politics was as the Liberal leader and then, when elected as an MP, he became the Prime Minister on the basis of his work as an economist and as Governor of the Bank of England.
The problem is that Christopher Luxon has such an ego that he won’t want anyone from another party in the Finance role. But then he’s the same guy who has said he doesn’t want “numpties from other parties” around the cabinet table.
As Darryl Kerrigan famously said all those years ago “tell ’im he’s dreamin.’ ”
When you’re leading a party that is not going to crack 30 percent in the party vote on election night there is only one way to be in government and that’s to have strong coalition partners.
New Zealand First and Act have the momentum, based on that 1News poll, to each crack double figures this election. That means around 21 or 22 percent together and about 25 seats.
Put that with National’s 40 electorates and you have 65 MPs from the centre right. In a parliament that could have up to 127 or 128 MPs because of the National overhang and the Te Pati Maori overhang (maybe 4 electorates with 1 percent of the party vote) that number of 65 is just enough to ensure a small majority.
We know it’s going to be a nail biting contest.
But National are not moving the dial between now and November 7 and gathering momentum in their party vote. That boat has sailed with the Luxon leadership.
Getting as many National electorate MPs over the line is now the only way to electoral success.
Blind Freddy can see it. The refusal of the National Party hierarchy to acknowledge the obvious is painful.
Do they actually want to lose ?
Peter Williams was a writer and broadcaster for half a century. Now watching from the sidelines. Peter blogs regularly on Peter’s Substack - Where this article was sourced.
12 comments:
Surely even 'Blind Freddy', even after a few beers can follow the mathematical rationale of splitting ones vote to achieve a favourable electoral outcome?
Frankly, as a one time donor to Nats when Key was PM...I thought his comment ill becoming of someone of his reported business nous.
Mowbray Senior ran through why votes needed to be split to HDPA in simple terms the other evening on ZB. The interview deserves widespread broadcast ( ad nauseam/ 'prn'! )
The polls all tell us one thing. This is going to be a very close election. Mathematically, the right cannot win without the vote splitting strategy. I suspect the left voters will also employ this strategy, if they don't already. Most electorate seats are won by Labour or National. The rest of the winning votes must be party votes if these parties, like the Greens, are getting at least 10%. We know the Maori Party are employing this strategy.
Let's get our country on a more economically viable path. We have huge debt, our exchange rate is abysmal and our status in the world is declining.
I'm splitting mine in the hope of getting rid of Willis and Bishop. Can't wait to see the disappointment on their faces on election night.
Wouldn't it have been easier to rid of Luxon? Everyone could have voted normally then. He should have been ditched last Christmas.
The latest opinion poll reported in the Herald suggests ''Maori'' party supporters and their allied thinkers are splitting their votes. TPM support 1pc and the Greens and Labour up, confirmed by a report on Packer's electorate.
Excellent Peter. I am very hopeful that the intelligent portion of NZ will prefer to know their Party Vote will not be wasted with a split vote for either ACT or NZF.and only Electorate vote National.
Good people cherish their Party Vote and to waste it on National would be "akin to treason "
I hope Craig Stobo gives the Botany electorate a serious go, just like Act did in Tamaki. I would give my vote to him.
Just so sick of Luxon and national
Don’t forget the flip side of the vote splitting strategy.
Every centre right electorate vote should go to National or we seriously risk the dilution of our vote among two or three centre right candidates in several marginal electorates, thus allowing Labour to come through the middle, and the whole “National overhang” theory fails.
I have been really wondering about Luxon's motive.
Seems he doesn't really want National to win.
He will get his knighthood and bugger off to join his international cronies for his own personal status.
Not my PM.
A party vote for National in the current climate is a vote for a Labour govt. National polls consistently under 30% which is 900,000 wasted party vote and Labour walks into govt. I am not wasting a vote on Nationals vanity project.
National hasn't delivered and will not shift its mindset on a number of key issues facing the nation. Fall in support is well justified.
‘MMP is not a two-party system’, is about time we proved it and put all Parties on notice. The voting public need to take charge of their country and send a very clear message with a major serious swing to NZF along with Act to force change. We must force change.
If we continue with Labour and National led govts we will simply get more of the same, long-term decline & decay. They have had 50yrs at the helm and I am not happy with state NZ has gotten itself into over that time.
Nationals’ arrogance will sink NZ. They are not putting the interests of the nation first or listening to their voter base. They are not even stable within their own Party.
National needs to be displaced by NZF, and with the support of Act NZF led the next govt. NZF have the depth of knowledge and experience in their ranks. The NZ people must set aside their differences and force change. Put the interests of the nation ahead of our personal preferences.
NZF and Act together are this country’s only hope. To do that we have to strip National of its dominance and keep Labour out of govt.
This election is the last and best chance for the NZ voter to take charge of their country and change its course. It is up to us the voter to save ourselves and the nation, and we can only do that by charting a new course for NZ. We have a rear set of circumstances at our disposal if we pull together for the collective good of the nation.
From what I hear Craig Stobo would make an excellent Minster of Finance.
Craig Stobo would make an excellent Minster of Finance. The NZF stable is well healed with talented experienced people.
Luxon became PM by default, not merit. Hiring a PM on the bases of the largest governing Party is a poor qualification indeed as we have seen.
Luxon is a wet bus ticket and ill-suited for the job of Prime Minster and we all know it. I wouldn’t miss a number of his close compatriots either. The National Party is arrogant, out of touch and unstable. They do not place the greater good of the nation at heart or listen to their voting base.
That leaves us just one obvious choice, Winston for Pime Minster. At the end of the day, he has the experience. In uncertain times experience counts most. He has the highest qualifications and credentials of anyone in the country for the role of Prime Minster.
I find myself having to put aside whatever prejudices I may have and consider the greater good of the nation. If you are hiring on qualifications, credentials and experience Winston is the clear choice.
You do not hire on superficial preferences in the real world. If you want to succeed you hire the best most qualitied people. Some may not want to admit it, but Winston would do very well as Prime Minster as would NZ.
No it isn’t, Peter. Unless we go Te Pati for electorate and Greens for list- is that what you’re suggesting!?
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