NZCPR Newsletter: Deciding Election 2026

For decades, New Zealand has been undergoing a quiet constitutional revolution. What was once largely unnoticed is now becoming increasingly visible – so much so that the Coalition Government can no longer ignore it if it hopes to remain in office.

Is The Nats’ Strategy To Condemn Its Coalition Partners Madness?

On The Platform, Michael Laws asks "Is the Nats’ strategy to condemn its coalition partners just desperate madness"?

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Ryan Bridge: NZ's isolation is a blessing and a curse

It'd be easy to draw comparisons and parallels between our upcoming election and the local and federal upsets in Australia and the UK at the weekend.

But New Zealand is a totally different kettle of fish. In part, because, unlike the Brits and the Aussies, we run an MMP system.

Clive Bibby: All the world’s a stage and men and women merely players

No matter how many times I read Shakespeare’s plays, I marvel at his ability to offer us mere mortals advice that remains timeless in its application to the human condition.

The above opening line taken from “As you like it” is particularly apt in a modern Society riven with conflict and collateral damage from self-serving economic management strategies that have shown little concern for the innocents caught up in situations not of their own making.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Maths doesn't lie - Luxon is out

In my opinion, National MPs need to bite the bullet and ask Chris Luxon to step aside.

I don’t enjoy saying this because personally I like Chris Luxon and have a fair amount of respect for him. But I think the chances are now very high that this is going to happen before the election. He is going to lose the leadership and perhaps the only real choice National MPs now have is how messy they allow this to become.

NZCPR Newsletter: Warning for National

Political polls provide a snapshot of voters’ views at a particular moment in time. While polls conducted months before an election cannot reliably predict the outcome – given the potential for unforeseen events – they nonetheless offer political parties a valuable guide as to how they are tracking with the electorate.

Ryan Bridge: The issues we care about

We have a new issues poll out this morning.

It's from IPSOS. 1000 people. Was taken after Waitangi weekend.

The numbers are bad for National, because they should be winning on more issues.

Clive Bibby: Do policies determine elections?

Why is it that transformative policies have rarely determined the outcome of New Zealand elections? This time could be different!

I have voted in over 20 general elections during my adult life and am surprised to see, during that time, few if any party was elected based on policies that had the ability to radically change people’s lives for the better.

Clive Bibby: Success in politics is all about timing

Political survivors are more often than not those who choose the moment to make a move that will save their heads when everyone else is losing theirs.

And it makes little difference what issues are motivating voting trends because survival is all about choosing the right time to be against a policy that is affecting family budgets - because, at the time, nothing else matters.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Don't forget a Chippy-led Government comes with Green baggage

You know what that Labour and Green Party unity news conference at Waitangi today looked like to me? It looked like desperation.

Parties don’t generally get other parties to stand next to them and hold their hands in an election year just to convince people to vote for them.

Perspective with Heather du Plessis-Allan: Winston Peters might be story of the year

Now, listen — I think it’s a little early in the year to be making too many predictions about election year. But having said that, I do think there is a very strong chance that Winston Peters might be the story of the year.

Perspective with Ryan Bridge: Is this National's election to lose?

So we've got an election date, and it's the date pundits have been picking since late last year - November 7th.

This election is National's to lose. The only question really is how much influence ACT and or New Zealand First will have in any future Government.

Mike's Minute: Election issues are already popping up

We are standing by for the election date today.

It’s not what it was, kind of like budgets. The suspense, the scuttlebutt, the guessing game – it’s all gone.

Perspective with Ryan Bridge: Should Luxon rip the band-aid off?

It is election year, of course, and I reckon we should get this thing over and done with quickly.

Let's rip the band-aid off - Luxon should go to the polls early.

The argument's always been - and we talked about this a lot last year - that they should wait till November, go late, let the economy recover.

Best of 2025: Ryan Bridge - My prediction for the 2026 election

Like it or not, next year's big dance in politics will ultimately be decided by the few, not the many.

Most MMP elections have been. Minnows hold the keys to the kingdom.

Bruce Cotterill: Christopher Luxon leadership - Why National would be ‘nuts’ to roll him

The past couple of weeks have seen plenty of conjecture about the future of Christopher Luxon as the leader of the National Party and hence, Prime Minister.

I don’t know if the rumbles about Chris Bishop rolling him are true or not. And I’m no political strategist. But let me say this. The National Party would be “nuts” to drop Luxon now.

JC: No Bias in Two Recent Polls

Looking ahead to 2026 election year, my money is on the re-election of the coalition.

Nobody could honestly say the two polls released this week reeked of bias. The first, the normally left-leaning 1News-Verian poll was good news for the right. The other, the normally right-leaning Taxpayers Union-Curia poll had better news for the left. As we all know polls do bounce around, some more than others. There are many variables contributing to this, including the time the poll was conducted, the questions asked and how they were framed. To quote the late Jim Bolger: “Bugger the polls.”

JC: Labour and Left Media Have High Hopes

Last weekend the Labour Party held their annual conference: their tax talkfest where they chew the fat and think about how many new taxes they can get away with imposing on us, the poor sods who are obliged to pay up. They believe the way to grow the economy is to tax the hell out of everyone, particularly the ‘rich pricks’ that rank as enemy number one. The irony is it is an illusion: the negative effects on the economy outweigh the positives.

David Farrar: Labour winning all the Māori seats would be good for NZ

Radio NZ reports:

“I think Te Pāti Māori has got themselves into a world of difficulty. They’re not in any fit shape to play a constructive role in the current Parliament, much less a future government,” he told RNZ head of Labour’s annual meeting in Auckland on Friday night.

JC: Will Winston Go Right or Left?

An article in the Weekend Herald by political reporter Jamie Ensor discussed the growing ties between NZ First and Labour. Factually, I could not fault it but I also sensed that it was written with a modicum of hope that Winston would go with Labour. I think Jamie might be disappointed. The possibility Winston will is, however, forever present and I suspect Jamie’s article is a vehicle to get people to think this might be a good idea. Jamie is trying to sow the seed that it realistically could work.