Henry Johnston: The GDP myth - What it really shows, and what it doesn’t

The most-often cited metric of economic success more often than not simply tells us what we want to hear – or what the West wants us to hear.

A few weeks after the Russia-Ukraine war began, Belgian economist Paul De Grauwe penned an article for the website of the London School of Economics with the title ‘Russia cannot win the war’. No military specialist, De Grauwe based his conclusion on some simple math: Russia’s GDP was roughly equivalent to the combined output of Belgium and the Netherlands. Therefore, he claimed, Russia is an “economic dwarf in Europe.” Its military operation was thus doomed.

Kerre Woodham: Surely we've reached the bottom of the economic cycle

The news came in around quarter to 11 yesterday, and it was unwelcome confirmation of what many people had been experiencing, had been feeling. The economy had contracted, and worse, it had shrunk 0.9%, far worse than economists had been predicting.

Economists at the Reserve Bank had forecast the economy would shrink just 0.3% during the June quarter. Retail banks said, "Oh, I don't think so. I think it'll be closer to 0.5." In fact, the figures released by Stats NZ yesterday showed GDP fell almost a full percentage point in the three months ended June, with declines in most industries.

David Farrar: Ouch

Stats NZ reports:

New Zealand’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.9 percent in the June 2025 quarter, following a 0.9 percent increase in the March 2025 quarter, according to figures released by Stats NZ today.

Professor Robert MacCulloch: Trump's Tariffs will boost NZ's GDP

Its official (according to the best NZ estimates): Trump's Tariffs will boost NZ's GDP. Thank goodness The Donald is helping lift NZ out of stagnation.

Estimating the effects of tariffs on different countries' GDP is a difficult thing to do, because there are so many flow-on effects. Overall, the strongly held view by economists is they will lower world productivity. However, as a consequence of the Trump tariffs, and the retaliatory moves by other countries, there are winners & losers, even though the average effect on GDP is going to be negative. So how does NZ come out of all of this?

Professor Robert MacCulloch: Does the "Gross" in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) explain why NZ's sliding toward a State of Emergency?

Technical Economics Note: Does the "Gross" in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) explain why NZ's sliding toward a State of Emergency?

It's gradually dawning on Kiwis that the cost of fixing NZ's depleted infrastructure is fast becoming unmanageable. Whangarei hospital needs $1 billion spent and Dunedin hospital $3 billion to make them fit for purpose. The interisland ferry needs $3 billion if it is to be rail-enabled. Meanwhile Wellington, with its tunnel plans and broken water supply, is wanting billions to sort out those problems. Meanwhile Auckland has no second harbour crossing. The proposed highway from Auckland to Whangarei, promised in the coalition agreement and so exempt from cost-benefit, will gobble up much of the money that instead should have been spent on these other projects.