Frank Newman: Interest rate rises and Meridian

It should come as no surprise that interest rates are likely to start rising from about April next year. Last week the Governor of the Reserve Bank, Graeme Wheeler, reaffirmed that outlook but was more specific about the size and speed of interest rate rises.

Radio New Zealand reported, “The Reserve Bank says the official cash rate could increase by 2% from 2014 to the beginning of 2016, which could mean interest rates on first mortgages of 7 - 8%. The central bank says if the Loan Value Ratio restrictions do not slow house price inflation, larger increases in the benchmark interest rate would be required.” In other words, expect interest rates to rise by 2% over the next two years, and more and faster if the property market (in Auckland) continues to charge ahead at 10% a year.

Bryan Leyland: Auckland will be liveable only if it is affordable

The Auckland plan ignores the potential for modern technology to solve our transport and other problems and, instead, pushes expensive and inappropriate 19th and 20th century solutions. They plan to spend about $3 billion on a rail tunnel that, like all tunneling projects will cost much more and will demand huge subsidies for every passenger. The tunnel is needed only because the plan decrees that people and employment must be crowded into the city centre.

Phil McDermott: The Answer Is Urban Consolidation – What Was The Question?

Perpetuating the Myth

The Green Party is perpetuating the claim that development beyond Auckland’s “city limits” imposes a high cost on ratepayers.  A spokesperson claims that the current Auckland plan which allows for some new development outside the current urban area, “will cost ratepayers $42b billion to 2042, an annual levy of $200 per ratepayer”  according to a report in the New Zealand Herald.   

But is just so happens that  study on which these calculations are based is a flawed commissioned report rather than a peer reviewed academic study.[1] 

Owen McShane: Auckland Spatial Plan

The battle lines are being drawn.

The Government legislation that created the Auckland Council included a requirement for an “evidence-based” Spatial Plan as a general planning framework for the region to be governed by the new Auckland Council. Government has recently presented a set of position papers establishing its preferences for an approach based on rigorous analysis of existing patterns and trends rather than utopian and coercive visions. The position papers flag the reasonable position that Government will not ask the taxpayers to fund major projects focused on the Auckland CBD unless they are supported by rigorous analysis, including costs and benefits.

Owen McShane: The Urban Reality

The simple reality is that the successful major cities of the Anglo-American world are decentralizing, and reducing overall urban area density, rather than centralizing and increasing density.

This dentralisation is driven by demographics, technology, and people’s personal preferences. These add up to a potent mix, and regulators have found that attempts to halt or reverse this trend have counterproductive outcomes. Auckland Mayor Len Brown may prefer a more compact city to more “urban sprawl” but the evidence suggests the Auckland residents may sprawl to the regional centres of Australia rather than be regulated into Smart Growth submission.