Bryce Edwards: Is Tauranga headed towards yet another by-election?

If National causes yet another by-election to be held in Tauranga, not only will it cost the taxpayers another unnecessary $1m for the taxpayers after Simon Bridges called it quits earlier in the year, but National will also pay a big price in terms of its reputation and integrity.

A by-election is definitely on the cards, now that more damaging revelations about National’s new MP Sam Uffindell have come to light. National’s leader is now distancing himself from his MP, saying: “We’ve had an MP involved in completely unacceptable and unlawful behaviour.”

Although there is further investigation taking place, it’s hard to see how Luxon will be able to welcome Uffindell back fully after this. Even if Uffindell is cleared of further allegations, and if no more dirt comes out on him – which is looking increasingly unlikely – National will want to be free of him as quickly as possible. And if that means Uffindell has to resign, then National will make it happen. They will then try to make a virtue of not putting up with low standards (even if that’s exactly what has happened).

Wendy Geus: National Party Faithful Return in Their Droves to the Fold

Newly minted Justice Minister Kiri Allan has been quick out of the blocks with some rhetoric of her own, calling National’s ‘soft on crime’ line “abhorrent” and (the old faithful) decrying their “knee jerk reaction” to the current crime wave, which even Allan does not deny.

Despite low voter turn-out, it was clear the thousands of Tauranga voters who returned to National (from Labour) in the by-election, giving Uffindell over 6000 more votes than Tinetti, didn’t agree that National’s ‘soft on crime’ accusation is just “abhorrent rhetoric”.

Sam Ufindell has his own member’s bill ready to go before parliament, promising a tough-on-crime approach in his city. A couple of the measures include banning gang patches in public and confiscating motorbikes for a month as punishment for associating and causing a public nuisance.

Mike Hosking: Plenty of warning signs for the Govt from Tauranga

I think we have broad agreement that by-elections are a story unto themselves. They are never good for the government of the day. And what happens in a one-off vote is not automatically to be repeated on a national stage.

But a couple of notable things happened in Tauranga that tell a story. The National and ACT votes went up significantly. Both parties gained.

And Labour not only lost, but lost badly. They lost badly because the tide generally has gone out on the Government and this merely confirmed it. They also gave up from the start, they never even tried. Not even trying is defeatist.

Frank Newman: Labour crushed in Tauranga by-election result

 While National’s victory in the Tauranga By-election does not change the numbers in Parliament, it confirms Labour is in serious trouble. The Labour Party would have known that from their own polling during the campaign. 

That may be why Jacinda Ardern was nowhere to be seen during the campaign. It is extraordinary for a party leader to not make an appearance on the ground during a by-election campaign – even if only to gee up the troops. As Richard Prebble observed in a recent column, Jacinda Ardern is willing to travel to Washington and Canberra but not to Tauranga. It is telling that the master of selfies is exuberant when addressing the woke crowd from Harvard but shrinks away when challenged in the street by ordinary citizens - just as she lacked the courage to speak to ordinary folk protesting about mandates on the grounds of Parliament. 

Labour should have done well in this by-election. 

Richard Prebble: What is significant is what is not happening in the Tauranga by-election

By-elections can be harbingers of political realignment. In 2015 National was polling 50 percent seemingly heading to govern alone after the next election. Then Winston Peters won the Northland by-election. 18 months later New Zealand First, Labour and the Greens ousted National.

Prime Ministers only resort to cabinet reshuffles when their government is in trouble. In the country polls National has broken through the important 40 percent hurdle. Labour is polling around 35 percent. The Tauranga by-election will confirm whether the polling is correct.

But it is what is not happening in the by-election that is most important.

Guy Hatchard: The Rule of Law

Someone from one of the major parties involved in the upcoming Tauranga by-election called me yesterday. There are twelve candidates in all. Three minor parties opposed to vaccine mandates say they are hoping for an upset result, but unfortunately, they have not united around a single candidate. Having listened to some political hopefuls, I reflect here on what this is all about.

The history of parliaments goes back to the Magna Carta which was pretty much forced on King John by his disgruntled barons. In essence, King John felt he had a divine right to rule—he could regulate, punish, and tax the population pretty much as he saw fit, and he did so with abandon. Modern parliaments have quietly slipped into King John’s way of thinking.

The Magna Carta affirmed that the King had to take account of the wishes of the people, it acknowledged that citizens had a right to worship and conduct their business freely, and crucially said that the King was not above the law:

“No free man shall be seized or imprisoned, or stripped of his rights or possessions, or outlawed or exiled, or deprived of his standing in any way, nor will we proceed with force against him, or send others to do so, except by the lawful judgment of his equals or by the law of the land.”

What Is the Law of the Land Referred to Here?

Bryce Edwards: Trevor Mallard’s petty fiefdom

Is Parliament just the fiefdom of Trevor Mallard and his colleagues? That’s the impression the public might take from yesterday’s news that the Speaker of Parliament is issuing trespass notices to political opponents who visited the protest in March on the lawns of Parliament.

Speaker Mallard has the absolute right to decide who can and can’t visit Parliamentary grounds. However, in arbitrarily trespassing selected political figures, he brings both himself and the institution of Parliament into yet more disrepute. In particular, the decision to threaten New Zealand First leader Winston Peters with arrest if he visits Parliament makes a further mockery of how authorities have dealt with dissent. A sense of pettiness now pervades Mallard and those that defend him.

Parliament already has a bad rap. Poll after poll shows confidence in and respect for the institution has been declining in recent times.

Don Brash: How would I vote in the Tauranga by-election?

It’s probably a bit early to answer that question definitively because as I write we know only two of the candidates from major parties, those for ACT and Labour, and two from minor parties, the New Zealand Outdoors & Freedom Party and the New Conservative Party. Importantly, we don’t yet know the National candidate or the New Zealand First candidate.

What we do know, however, is that if the person who wins the electorate is from Labour, National or ACT, it will make little difference to the balance of political power between now and the next general election.

Clearly most Right-leaning voters will be hoping that National will retain the electorate that it won from New Zealand First in 2005. Winning it with an increased majority would be a positive sign for Christopher Luxon and his leadership, but it would simply restore the balance of Parliamentary power which prevailed prior to Simon Bridges’ surprise resignation. Losing it would be a major psychological blow to National but wouldn’t make any perceptible difference to National’s influence on the course of events between now and the general election.

If Labour were to win Tauranga it would be an enormous political earthquake – Labour has not won Tauranga since 1935. Such a win against the trend of all the recent political polls which show waning support for Labour would be a devastating blow for Luxon and an enormous boost for Ardern – but it’s not going to happen.

Bryce Edwards: Behind Simon Bridges’ shock departure, and what comes next

Last week’s shock 1News opinion poll was the final indication, if Bridges needed it, that his chances of eventually taking back the leadership and becoming PM were slim to none. Any feeling that it was worth waiting around to see if Luxon might stumble over the next couple of years could be put to bed.

Bridges says he had been thinking of departing for some time, beginning with the coup against him prior to the 2020 election, when Todd Muller was installed with the help of Chris Bishop and Nicola Willis.

Despite that setback, Bridges managed to stay energised and clearly wanted to regain the top position. After all, prior to Covid hitting, National was on 46 per cent in the polls in an election year and he had been on track to become New Zealand’s first Māori prime minister.