Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so” - world temperatures

“Things you know that ain't so” - “World temperatures continue to rise at a dangerous rate”

This is simply not true. All five world surface and satellite temperature records that are accepted by the IPCC show that there has been no statistically significant warming over the last 18 years. 

Even the IPCC agrees: it has stated “Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10 –15 years.” The IPCC also admitted that 111 out of 114 runs of computer models failed to predict this warming. In most areas of science a model that does not replicate reality is abandoned. Not so with global warming!

Those who are committed to the dogma that man-made global warming is real and dangerous argue against the lack of warming: 

  • They point out that the last 10 years or so has been the warmest in recorded history. Which might even be true. But it is beside the point: when you climb onto a plateau you are the highest you have been but you are walking along level ground.
  • They claim that all the missing heat has disappeared deep into the ocean. The statement is based on the data from Argo floats that, they claim, show that ocean warming down to 1500 m can explain for all the “missing heat”. But they can’t explain how all that heat got deep into the ocean from an atmosphere that has not warmed. But, if it did, then loss of heat from a warm ocean becomes a credible explanation of the warming between 1975 and 1998.
  • Others insist that, going back to the early 1900s, there is a steady warming trend. Quite true. But most of the warming occurred before there were significant emissions of man-made carbon dioxide and there was a natural cooling period between the 1940s and 1975. It still doesn’t alter the fact that there was no significant warming since 1988.
Altogether there are 29 different – and often incompatible – explanations for why the world has not warmed. The 30th is, of course, that the climate changes naturally.

Many of the people who study sunspots and other solar effects believe that world temperatures have peaked and that we are now likely to be entering into a cooling phase that could be as severe as the the Little Ice Age. If they are right, and history repeats itself, we could be in for a period of famine, disease and war.

A rational approach would be to make sure that we can cope with natural climate change– be it cooling or warming.
This was published in the Dominion Post yesterday - see below. A fully referenced version is available on my website.


Anonymous said...

Well said, Bryan, and all true. However, I doubt whether you will convince many of the warmists for whom their new religion seems so believable. I suspect that, before too long, the rest of us will be mighty pleased that the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing bringing major benefits to offset the effects of falling temperatures.

Mhurray said...

Keep up the pressure Bryan. The fraud that is Anthropogenic Global Warming will laughed about one day, in the meantime there is a need to stop governments from needlessly taxing us and spending the takings on expensive green energy.