Bryan Leyland: A solution to our electricity problems

The proposal to subsidise plug-in solar — small solar panel units that households can hang off the balcony and plug straight into a wall socket – indicates how far the debate over our power system has drifted from its fundamental objective: to provide a reliable and economic supply of electricity

Bryan Leyland: "Things that you know that ain’t so…" - electricity

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so”:

“An electricity market based on trading kWh in the short-term will automatically provide a reliable and economic supply into the future”

In New Zealand, our electricity market certainly does not provide an economic and reliable supply. Instead, it is often unable to supply all the load and it produces wildly fluctuating power prices.

Bryan Leyland & John Raine: The Energy Storage Elephant

Christopher Luxon announced the LNG Storage Terminal plan on 9th February 2026. By 28th February, the USA and Israel had attacked Iran, and we were forcefully reminded that New Zealand’s is one of the most vulnerable advanced economies to oil supply disruption. We are geographically isolated, fully import‑dependent for refined fuels, and exposed to geopolitical upheaval and chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz.

John Raine & Bryan Leyland: A Realistic Energy Future

The 23rd July 2025 USA Department of Energy (DoE) Report, “A Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate” [1], authored by five eminent scientists, brought some balance back into the climate change debate, and outrage from many in the climate science community. The report exposed significant alarmism in the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) statements on anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and climate change, projected temperature rise and extreme weather events. The DoE report is against apocalyptic projections, far more moderate in its findings, and underlines the fact that science is NEVER settled. In a recent article [2], it was noted that:

NZCPR Newsletter: The Lifeblood of Progress

Cheap, reliable energy is the lifeblood of progress. Yet as we approach winter, concerns are already being raised about the security of New Zealand’s electricity supplies.

Because of a lack of rain, our hydro-lakes are lower than they should be at this time of year, and there has already been talk of possible blackouts. While wind and solar energy can help, they are notoriously unreliable. A shortage of natural gas to run the Huntly back-up power generator, and a lack of local coal means more reliance on imported coal. 

Bryan Leyland: Our power system is in serious trouble

The government recently issued a policy statement on electricity that has a laudable primary objective of providing the reliable and economic supply of electricity that we desperately need. It then goes on to discuss a scenario that features rapid load growth that is largely met by wind and solar power.

Bryan Leyland: The electricity crisis - what caused it and options for fixing it

On the morning of 19th May blackouts were averted only because New Zealanders made a patriotic effort to reduce demand. Prices went up rapidly and peaked at more than $3/kWh later in the day. This risky situation is likely to continue for a number of years.

The Electricity Authority has ignored it even though their objective is to “…achieve a sustainable, accessible, secure and resilient energy system to keep the lights on…”. Their website also says “Consumers' best interests are at the heart of everything we do.” Perhaps they should be reminded that avoidable high prices, power restrictions and the threat of blackouts are not in the best interest of consumers.

Bryan Leyland: “Things that you know that ain't so” - climate

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” 

“Things that you know that ain't so”

“If New Zealand reduces its emissions of greenhouse gases, our climate will improve.”

Bryan Leyland: Net Zero nonsense

Net Zero electricity by 2030 using wind and solar power is an impossible dream: the resources needed to carry it out don't exist. (“Net Zero” means that we do not burn gas and coal for electricity generation except, maybe, in dry years.)

The excellent report by the Interim Committee on Climate Change said that we would need fossil fuels for the foreseeable future to keep the lights on during windless nights and during dry hydro years. This report was shelved by the Government and superseded by a report that had minimal input from experienced power system engineers.

Bryan Leyland: The wind and solar power need storage

The New Zealand government along with many others in the Western world have committed to “net zero” emissions of carbon by 2050. They seem to believe that wind and solar power can achieve this. This belief has led many governments to promote and heavily subsidise wind and solar. New Zealand promotes them but does not offer direct subsidies.

These plans have a single, fatal flaw: they are reliant on the pipe-dream that there is some low cost large scale technology that will store surplus electricity.

In the real world a wind farm’s output often drops below 10 per cent of its installed capacity for days at a time. Solar power disappears completely every night and drops by 50 per cent or more during cloudy days. About 3000 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar capacity is needed to generate as much energy as a 1000 MW geothermal power station: and in fact, as we shall see, we will still need conventional power stations or low cost energy storage once large scale wind and solar are online.

Bryan Leyland: Storage - the Achilles heel of wind and solar power

The Government’s “Net Zero New Zealand by 2050” ambition foresees 12,000 MW of new wind and solar power – 1.5 times the entire existing installed generating capacity – to meet the 50% increase in energy and peak demand expected from electrifying transport and heating. The disproportionate increase in installed capacity results from the low average output of wind and solar farms. Installing this much new capacity is a major challenge in terms of technology, cost and resources. According to Professor Kelly, an eminent New Zealand engineer now residing in the UK, it will cost more than $500 billion.

Bryan Leyland: The underlying cause of the blackouts.

"You set the rules, we’ll play the game!" - the underlying cause of the blackouts.

The blackouts on the night of 9 August happened because we did not have enough generating capacity and we were unable to shed enough non-essential load. The spot price reached $300,000 per MWh - more than 1000 times normal. According to market theory it should have substantially reduced demand. It didn’t.

The immediate cause was lack of generation. Tokaanu hydro station shutdown because the intake screens got blocked by weed and starved the turbines of water. Huntly power station didn’t get enough warning of the need for more generation. Wind power dropped rapidly and substantially as the peak demand approached. Taranaki combined cycle station was not available for generation and, anyway, gas supplies were marginal. Not all our water heating load was shed because the industry reforms have decimated this previously world leading demand management system.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so” - electric cars

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.”

"Government policies on electric cars is a winner on all counts."

The reality is that it is nonsense on stilts. No matter which way you look at it, it is madness.

Poor people will be worse off because the policies will increase the cost of second-hand cars. People who live in the country or run a business that needs pickups or minivans will have to pay more even though an electric vehicle is not an option.

The chances are that subsidised electric cars won’t make much difference to emissions because the extra electricity needed can only come from burning more coal at Huntly power station. When the CO2 emitted during battery production is taken into account, worldwide emissions may well increase.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so” - Climate Commission ‘advice’

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.”

“Advice from the NZ Climate Commission is evidence-based”

They make this claim on their website and in their 2021 “Draft Advice for Consultation”.

It follows that any recommendations they make should be backed up by the evidence, technically and economically achievable and supported by a cost benefit analysis.

Bryan Leyland: The Onslow pumped storage scheme will NOT reduce electricity prices

The government has undertaken to spend $30 million or more on a study of the Onslow pumped storage scheme that, it claims, will provide up to 5000 GWh of dry year storage, reduce electricity prices, eliminate fossil fuel generation, and be in service by 2030.

This is the stuff of dreams.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so" - Covid-19

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” 

“Our government is a world leader in coping with Covid-19”

No. When collateral damage is taken into account, the social and economic cost of the shutdown is huge. Thousands of lives have been put at risk because of delayed operations, treatment, and diagnosis. Many people have suffered from depression and domestic violence. The education of our children – particularly those from deprived families – has been seriously compromised.

Bryan Leyland: Why electricity prices have increased

The Electricity Price Review has revealed that residential electricity prices have increased by about 80% above inflation since 1990. Why did this happen? We were promised that privatisation and the electricity market would reduce power prices.

An objective examination of the whole electricity industry and the effect of the reforms leads to some interesting conclusions.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so" - fossil fuels

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” 

“We can have a reliable and economic supply of electricity without burning fossil fuels”

Nonsense!

Blackouts are inevitable if we do not have sufficient energy in reserve to make up for the loss of hydro generation in a dry year. In a 1:20 dry year the shortfall amounts to 10% of annual consumption.

To make up for the shortfall we need to have an energy store that can be converted into electricity over the four month dry period. Ever since Meremere power station was commissioned in the 1950s, we have relied on coal-fired stations supplemented by gas and oil to provide the dry year reserve.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so" - the Royal Society

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” 

Things that you know that ain't so: The Royal Society of New Zealand is committed to science and open debate.

When the UK Royal Society was founded in 1660 its motto was “Nullius in verba”: take nobody's word for it. This committed it to open debate based on the weight of evidence, not opinions and, most certainly not “consensus” (a.k.a. “appeal to authority”). It also resolved never to have an opinion on any scientific matter.

When the Royal Society of New Zealand (RSNZ) was formed in 1867 I am sure it had similar objectives. Since then it has gone into a downhill slide. 

Bryan Leyland: Things you know that ain't so - Auckland airport must have rapid transport

Things you know that ain't so - Auckland airport must have rapid transport.

At the moment, the politicians are going all out with promises of rapid transport – Winston Peters favours heavy rail, while Jacinda promises light rail within a few years.