Bryan Leyland: The electricity crisis - what caused it and options for fixing it

On the morning of 19th May blackouts were averted only because New Zealanders made a patriotic effort to reduce demand. Prices went up rapidly and peaked at more than $3/kWh later in the day. This risky situation is likely to continue for a number of years.

The Electricity Authority has ignored it even though their objective is to “…achieve a sustainable, accessible, secure and resilient energy system to keep the lights on…”. Their website also says “Consumers' best interests are at the heart of everything we do.” Perhaps they should be reminded that avoidable high prices, power restrictions and the threat of blackouts are not in the best interest of consumers.

Bryan Leyland: “Things that you know that ain't so” - climate

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” 

“Things that you know that ain't so”

“If New Zealand reduces its emissions of greenhouse gases, our climate will improve.”

Bryan Leyland: Net Zero nonsense

Net Zero electricity by 2030 using wind and solar power is an impossible dream: the resources needed to carry it out don't exist. (“Net Zero” means that we do not burn gas and coal for electricity generation except, maybe, in dry years.)

The excellent report by the Interim Committee on Climate Change said that we would need fossil fuels for the foreseeable future to keep the lights on during windless nights and during dry hydro years. This report was shelved by the Government and superseded by a report that had minimal input from experienced power system engineers.

Bryan Leyland: The wind and solar power need storage

The New Zealand government along with many others in the Western world have committed to “net zero” emissions of carbon by 2050. They seem to believe that wind and solar power can achieve this. This belief has led many governments to promote and heavily subsidise wind and solar. New Zealand promotes them but does not offer direct subsidies.

These plans have a single, fatal flaw: they are reliant on the pipe-dream that there is some low cost large scale technology that will store surplus electricity.

In the real world a wind farm’s output often drops below 10 per cent of its installed capacity for days at a time. Solar power disappears completely every night and drops by 50 per cent or more during cloudy days. About 3000 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar capacity is needed to generate as much energy as a 1000 MW geothermal power station: and in fact, as we shall see, we will still need conventional power stations or low cost energy storage once large scale wind and solar are online.

Bryan Leyland: Storage - the Achilles heel of wind and solar power

The Government’s “Net Zero New Zealand by 2050” ambition foresees 12,000 MW of new wind and solar power – 1.5 times the entire existing installed generating capacity – to meet the 50% increase in energy and peak demand expected from electrifying transport and heating. The disproportionate increase in installed capacity results from the low average output of wind and solar farms. Installing this much new capacity is a major challenge in terms of technology, cost and resources. According to Professor Kelly, an eminent New Zealand engineer now residing in the UK, it will cost more than $500 billion.

Bryan Leyland: The underlying cause of the blackouts.

"You set the rules, we’ll play the game!" - the underlying cause of the blackouts.

The blackouts on the night of 9 August happened because we did not have enough generating capacity and we were unable to shed enough non-essential load. The spot price reached $300,000 per MWh - more than 1000 times normal. According to market theory it should have substantially reduced demand. It didn’t.

The immediate cause was lack of generation. Tokaanu hydro station shutdown because the intake screens got blocked by weed and starved the turbines of water. Huntly power station didn’t get enough warning of the need for more generation. Wind power dropped rapidly and substantially as the peak demand approached. Taranaki combined cycle station was not available for generation and, anyway, gas supplies were marginal. Not all our water heating load was shed because the industry reforms have decimated this previously world leading demand management system.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so” - electric cars

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.”

"Government policies on electric cars is a winner on all counts."

The reality is that it is nonsense on stilts. No matter which way you look at it, it is madness.

Poor people will be worse off because the policies will increase the cost of second-hand cars. People who live in the country or run a business that needs pickups or minivans will have to pay more even though an electric vehicle is not an option.

The chances are that subsidised electric cars won’t make much difference to emissions because the extra electricity needed can only come from burning more coal at Huntly power station. When the CO2 emitted during battery production is taken into account, worldwide emissions may well increase.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so” - Climate Commission ‘advice’

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.”

“Advice from the NZ Climate Commission is evidence-based”

They make this claim on their website and in their 2021 “Draft Advice for Consultation”.

It follows that any recommendations they make should be backed up by the evidence, technically and economically achievable and supported by a cost benefit analysis.

Bryan Leyland: The Onslow pumped storage scheme will NOT reduce electricity prices

The government has undertaken to spend $30 million or more on a study of the Onslow pumped storage scheme that, it claims, will provide up to 5000 GWh of dry year storage, reduce electricity prices, eliminate fossil fuel generation, and be in service by 2030.

This is the stuff of dreams.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so" - Covid-19

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” 

“Our government is a world leader in coping with Covid-19”

No. When collateral damage is taken into account, the social and economic cost of the shutdown is huge. Thousands of lives have been put at risk because of delayed operations, treatment, and diagnosis. Many people have suffered from depression and domestic violence. The education of our children – particularly those from deprived families – has been seriously compromised.

Bryan Leyland: Why electricity prices have increased

The Electricity Price Review has revealed that residential electricity prices have increased by about 80% above inflation since 1990. Why did this happen? We were promised that privatisation and the electricity market would reduce power prices.

An objective examination of the whole electricity industry and the effect of the reforms leads to some interesting conclusions.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so" - fossil fuels

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” 

“We can have a reliable and economic supply of electricity without burning fossil fuels”

Nonsense!

Blackouts are inevitable if we do not have sufficient energy in reserve to make up for the loss of hydro generation in a dry year. In a 1:20 dry year the shortfall amounts to 10% of annual consumption.

To make up for the shortfall we need to have an energy store that can be converted into electricity over the four month dry period. Ever since Meremere power station was commissioned in the 1950s, we have relied on coal-fired stations supplemented by gas and oil to provide the dry year reserve.

Bryan Leyland: “Things you know that ain't so" - the Royal Society

As the American humorist Will Rogers said: “It’s not what we don’t know that gives us trouble, it’s what we know that ain’t so.” 

Things that you know that ain't so: The Royal Society of New Zealand is committed to science and open debate.

When the UK Royal Society was founded in 1660 its motto was “Nullius in verba”: take nobody's word for it. This committed it to open debate based on the weight of evidence, not opinions and, most certainly not “consensus” (a.k.a. “appeal to authority”). It also resolved never to have an opinion on any scientific matter.

When the Royal Society of New Zealand (RSNZ) was formed in 1867 I am sure it had similar objectives. Since then it has gone into a downhill slide. 

Bryan Leyland: Things you know that ain't so - Auckland airport must have rapid transport

Things you know that ain't so - Auckland airport must have rapid transport.

At the moment, the politicians are going all out with promises of rapid transport – Winston Peters favours heavy rail, while Jacinda promises light rail within a few years.

Bryan Leyland: Things you know that ain't so - there's a global warming "tipping point"

"Things you know that ain't so" - if world temperatures rise more than 1.5 or 2°, a dangerous 'tipping point' will be reached.

The problem with this belief is that, as far as I can make out, it is totally unsupported by any evidence whatsoever. It is not predicted by the climate models – they merely project that temperatures will increase steadily as carbon dioxide increases – and there is no evidence of tipping points occurring within what one might call the normal temperature range in the past.

Bryan Leyland: Things you know that ain't so - aid to poor countries brings substantial benefits

"Things you know that ain't so - aid to poor countries brings substantial benefits".

There appears to be a widespread belief that developing countries would be better off if more aid was available. But is it true?

The presumed objective of aid is to help countries achieve a better life for their citizens: they should be better off, healthier, better governed, more self sufficient, and suffer less from corruption.

Bryan Leyland: Things you know that ain't so - 2016 was the warmest year

"Things you know that ain't so - 2016 was the warmest recorded year: global warming is real and dangerous".

Or so they tell you. But you when you examine the facts, you come to the opposite conclusion. It is a classic example of using half-truths to mislead.

They don’t tell you how much warmer it actually was. If they did, the myth would be exposed immediately. 

Bryan Leyland: Things you know that ain't so - electric cars

"Things you know that ain't so - our renewable energy resources will charge our electric cars."

The government is promoting (in effect, subsidising) electric cars because it believes that the electricity they need to charge the batteries will mostly come from our renewable energy resources – hydro, geothermal and wind.

The reality is somewhat different as you can see from my comments on a recent government press release:

Bryan Leyland: Things you know that ain't so - trams, trains and buses

"Things you know that ain't so - trams, trains and buses are the only solution to Auckland’s congestion problem”.

All the mayoral candidates, the Council and its planners are wedded to the idea that Auckland’s congestion can only be solved by crowding people within the existing city boundaries and increasing congestion to force people to travel by trains, trams, and buses. The cost will be enormous and increased congestion is certain.

Bryan Leyland: Things you know that ain't so - sea levels are rising

“Things you know that ain't so - the sea level is rising rapidly and this will continue to increase”. 

We are constantly being told by the Royal Society of New Zealand and others that the sea level is rising more and more rapidly and we must be prepared for a rise of something like 1 m over the next 100 years or so – 10 mm per year. This is a serious matter because many Councils are now restricting building close to the sea and putting restrictions on existing houses that have substantially reduced their value.

There is no scientific foundation for this belief. It is based on the output of computer models that, so far, have been shown to consistently overestimate the rate of sea level rise.