Wednesday, June 19, 2019

GWPF Newsletter: Back To The Dark Ages

German Greens Look To Ban All Industrial Farming

In this newsletter:

1) German Greens Look To Ban All Industrial Farming
The Daily Telegraph, 17 June 2019
2) Merkel’s Climate Hype Backfires As German Greens Ride to Brink of Power
Bloomberg, 17 June 2019

3) Das Grüne Reich
Bohemian Browser Ballett, 13 June 2019
4) National Energy And Climate Plans Will Not Meet Targets, EU Warns
Clean Energy Wire, 18 June 2019 
5) Trump’s Green Re-Election Strategy Takes Shape
E&E News, 14 June 2019 
6) China's Electric Car Boom Is Already Running Out Of Gas
Jim Collins, Forbes, 14 June 2019
7) Judith Sloan: Poor Timing For Al Gore’s Climate Panic Poppycock
The Australian, 18 June 2019 
8) And Finally: The Futility Of Western De-Carbonisation
Ed Hoskins, 17 June 2019 

Full details:

1) German Greens Look To Ban All Industrial Farming
The Daily Telegraph, 17 June 2019

The Green party in Germany has said it intends to ban industrial farming as part of a wide-ranging and costly package to combat climate change should they come to power.

Katrin Goering-Eckardt, the party’s leader in the Germany parliament, said her party would establish a fund worth at least €100 billion to finance climate projects including dam construction, reforestation and environmentally friendly transportation projects.

Ms Goering-Eckardt did not go into further details on a timeline for the prohibition of intensively reared meat.

But the proposal is likely to stoke up debate over whether the Greens are still Germany’s Verbotspartei (prohibition party), a nickname they gained in 2013 due to a misjudged plan to introduce a weekly “veggie day”.

Last week Christian Lindner, the leader of the pro-business Free Democrats, warned that the Greens “dream of a meat-less country.”

“Whoever wants to be vegan is free to do so, but the rest of us shouldn’t be banned from eating our schnitzel,” Mr Lindner said.

In a country where pork is still a central part of the diet, such fears have traditionally restricted support for the environmentalists to liberal urban districts.

But Ms Goering-Eckardt told the German tabloid Bild am Sonntag that public attitudes have transformed, with Germans realizing that drastic action on global warming is required.

“Many people have now understood that things are going to change fundamentally,” the 53-year-old said.

“The question is whether we make the changes ourselves or allow ourselves to be swept over by the climate crisis.”

Full story

2) Merkel’s Climate Hype Backfires As German Greens Ride to Brink of Power
Bloomberg, 17 June 2019

When the scruffy Greens marched into German parliament nearly four decades ago in jeans and sneakers, they were sidelined and ridiculed. Today, the party has a legitimate shot at governing Europe’s largest economy.

With Angela Merkel’s coalition hanging by a thread, the possibility of a Green chancellor is a hot topic in Berlin. The party overtook her Christian Democrat-led bloc in polls this month. Robert Habeck, the stubble-cheeked Green co-chairman, would defeat Merkel’s heir apparent in a contest to lead Germany.

That raises the question of how the nation would be run by a party that in 1998 proposed tripling gasoline prices and, in 2013, suggested banning meat in canteens every Thursday. Even though the Greens now are a mainstream party for urban professionals, many investors still get the jitters.

“The Greens are still in part a prohibition party that wants to use strict regulation to steer the economy,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany. “A Green-led government would be difficult for business to handle.”

Worryingly for Merkel, the Green surge mirrors the CDU’s decline. Support for the environmentalist party held at 27% in an Emnid poll published Sunday, while the CDU-led bloc declined 2 percentage points to 25%. Merkel’s Social Democratic coalition partner stayed at a historic low of 12%. Three other major polls in June also put the Green party ahead.

Habeck said on Monday that the boost in support is an incentive but that it is premature to discuss electoral strategies. Instead, his party would focus on its role as a pro-active player in the opposition, he said. "There are no elections, we’re in the middle of a legislative period that is tough enough," he told ZDF television.

A Green government could have far-reaching implications in transport, energy and other industries and would “want to accelerate the coal phase-out,” said Coralie Laurencin, an energy analyst at researcher IHS Markit. That could mean a growing reliance on gas imports from Russia.

Full story

See also

Apocalyptic Mass-Hysteria Propels Radical Greens To Strongest Party In Germany
Why Germany’s Green Party Is So Strong: A Wake-Up Call

3) Das Grüne Reich
Bohemian Browser Ballett, 13 June 2019

Germany in the near future: The Greens have come to power and have established a dictatorship of prohibitions. In the underground resistance, one man is fighting against authoritarian eco-fascism. Welcome to the Green Reich.
Great video spoof 

4) German & Other National Energy And Climate Plans Will Not Meet Targets, EU Warns
Clean Energy Wire, 18 June 2019 

The EU Commission has warned EU countries including Germany that draft national plans for the coming decade are insufficient to achieve the bloc’s 2030 energy and climate targets. 

With existing policies and measures, "Germany is not on track to achieve" its 2030 emissions target for sectors not covered by the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), the Commission said. "While Germany's national and sector-wide greenhouse gas emission reduction targets for 2030 are in line with the German long-term strategy [...], these are not always reflected in sector-specific national contributions and policies and measures (e.g. in the transport, building and agriculture sector)."

The Commission says Germany should take action to specify cost-efficient additional policies and measures, notably in the above sectors "to address the significant projected gap to its greenhouse gas target for sectors not covered by the ETS for 2030 of minus 38 percent compared to 2005."

Full post

5) Trump’s Green Re-Election Strategy Takes Shape
E&E News, 14 June 2019 

President Trump’s reelection strategy on energy and environment issues is starting to come into focus, with an emphasis on domestic energy production and making the case, in his mind at least, that the environment has become cleaner since he’s taken office.

Trump is planning to officially launch his 2020 campaign Tuesday for a second term, now that two dozen Democrats are vying for the chance to run against him.

In recent appearances and statements, Trump has put together a message for voters that energy production is growing, the economy is booming, and the United States has “the cleanest air” and “the cleanest water,” and it’s all because of his policies during the last two years.

Meanwhile, Trump’s Democratic opponents are pursuing the Green New Deal, which would usher in socialism and unreliable energy sources such as wind, the president has argued.

“Thanks to President Donald Trump, the American energy revolution is now underway,” Sarah Matthews, deputy press secretary for the Trump reelection campaign, told E&E News when asked to summarize his 2020 platform.

“While Democrats continue to rally around the radical Green New Deal, the president’s reelection campaign will highlight his record of unquestionable success in unleashing American energy while being good stewards of the environment,” Matthews said.

Trump himself hasn’t been afraid to take credit for the state of the fossil fuel industry in recent appearances and say his policies — including aggressively rolling back environmental protections and trying to encourage exports — are the reason.

“Since the election, we created nearly 6 million jobs, including 57,000 new oil and gas pipeline construction jobs. And in 2018 alone, America added over 150,000 brand-new energy jobs,” Trump said last month during an event to mark the beginning of operations at the Cameron liquefied natural gas export plant in Louisiana.

“The previous administration tried to put America’s vast energy resources under lock and key,” he said. “‘We don’t want energy.’ I don’t know what they were thinking. And they tried to put energy producers out of business. But no more.”

Full story

6) China's Electric Car Boom Is Already Running Out Of Gas
Jim Collins, Forbes, 14 June 2019

The sharp decline in Chinese auto sales is flashing a red light on the health of the Chinese consumer. May sales figures, released this week, were abysmal, with a 17.6% year-on-year decline in wholesales and a 12.5% decline in retail sales according to the Chinese Passenger Car Association.

Lest one believe that May was some sort of aberration, I would note that auto sales in China have now fallen for 12 consecutive months. This is a trend, and certainly a negative one for the global automakers.

Against the backdrop of slowing industry sales in China, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have been held up by some as the beacon of a greener global auto industry. Momentum in BEV sales has slowed dramatically this year, however, with a gain of only 5.1% in sales of what the Chinese government refers to as new energy vehicles (NEVs; pure battery, hybrids and plug-in hybrids ) registered in May’s sales figures.  Yes, NEV sales have risen 58% in China in the first five months of 2019 compared with the year-ago period, but, as any stock chartist can tell you, the most recent data is the most relevant.

These figures include only domestically-produced vehicles, so do not yet include sales of Tesla, which is building its Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai. As with Tesla in the U.S., though, the biggest negative factor for demand for BEVs is the reduction in government subsidies. Teslas bought in the U.S will be eligible for a tax credit of only $1,875 beginning on July 1, down from the current level of $3,500 and the $7,500 that prevailed from 2012 until December 31st, 2018.

The reduction in subsidies in China will be much more draconian, though. According to the Financial Timesthe subsidy for Chinese BEV purchases that currently averages 70,000 RMB ($10,100) will decline to 25,000 RMB ($3,607) by the end of this month. My research shows that this change will take place on June 22nd, so while the Chinese market might see a bump in BEV sales in before the deadline, I believe sales of BEVs will show a marked year-on-year  decline in the second half of 2019.

This is terrible timing for Tesla, but Elon Musk has never been known for his tactical acumen. No, Tesla and the electric vehicle industry -- including the estimated $10 billion raised by Chinese BEV start-ups like NIO, Byton, Xpeng, WM and others--have been given massive valuations by public and private investors on the back of a dream of a future of green cars.

There is only one problem with this dream:  someone has to buy the electric cars the OEMs are scrambling to produce. As subsidy-driven demand dries up, consumer appetite for BEVs is just not there on a global basis. So, as Tesla stock has plummeted in 2019 based on the new narrative that the company will never achieve market dominance and faces permanent relegation to niche-player status, that is a reality that is reducing elevated valuations across the space.

Tesla shares have fallen 45% since Musk’s infamous funding secured tweet on August 7, 2018. NIO shares, which came public to much hoopla at $6.16 a month after Musk’s tweet, today hit a new low of $2.35 per share, an absolutely brutal post-IPO performance.

So, that's a lesson I have learned the hard way in following autos for the past 27 years. Cars are consumer goods. No matter how much tech is put in them -- and the established automakers still haven’t matched the coolness of Tesla’s UX seven years after the launch of the Model S -- someone has to buy them. When the value proposition for any car model is reduced, in this case by a combination of lower gasoline prices and the reduction in government subsidies, finicky--and extremely price-sensitive--car buyers just won’t buy it.

This is true everywhere. Decidedly “green” Germany saw an electric car penetration of just 2% last year. Except Norway, which saw an amazing 49% penetration for BEVs in 2018, there simply is no public groundswell for electric cars in any of the world’s auto markets. The numbers are clearly showing this, but delusional investors are losing billions of dollars on these misguided bets.

China, which is slightly more important to the global economy than Norway, is the true bellwether here. China’s electric car boom has already started to run out of gas. The tens of billions of dollars spent by the global automakers on battery and electrified drivetrain technology are not going to receive an adequate return.

That's not hugely bearish for GM, Ford, VW or Toyota, as those companies receive low P/E multiples from the stock market, anyway. For former high-flyers like Tesla and NIO, though, the lack of a BEV revolution could be catastrophic, and, ultimately, fatal.

7) Judith Sloan: Poor Timing For Al Gore’s Climate Panic Poppycock
The Australian, 18 June 2019 

While Al Gore was in Queensland, he was offering up some more whoppers – days after Labor lost the ‘climate election’.

In politics, timing is crucial. And thus it was with the unfortunately timed participation of former US vice-president Al Gore in the Queensland government-sponsored Climate Week earlier this month.

According to the blurb, “Climate Week QLD 2019 will showcase how the state is transitioning to a low-carbon, clean-growth economy and building a community of action to address climate change.”

Occurring as it did after the unexpected victory of the Morrison government, Gore’s pronouncements during the week about the perils of climate change — let’s face it, he easily wins the gold medal in the boy-who-cried-wolf category when it comes to climate-induced apocalypses — were particularly jarring.

As for that photographed pose of Gore and Deputy Premier Jackie Trad cuddling up to each other, it’s probably best not to comment.

It would have been fun to be a fly on the wall when the planning for this gala week occurred. The expectation would have been that Labor would win the federal election, with the clear message that the public was demanding “real action on climate change” — so the motto goes. Reference would have been made to Bill Shorten’s plans to reduce emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 and for 50 per cent of electricity to be generated by renewable energy sources.

The Queensland government would endorse these targets while arguing for more ambitious ones. Reference would be made to the Palaszczuk government’s pledge for the state to reach net zero emissions by 2050. Without doubt, Big Al would be supportive.

Of course, the Great Barrier Reef would need to be a central part of the story. And the potential for the final rejection of the Adani project would complete a very satisfactory week of positive, vote-winning news items for the Queensland government.

For the life of me, I can’t understand why anyone would give Gore the time of day. After all, he is not a trained scientist; he appears to make a living from concocting scary climate stories.

While he was in Queensland, he was offering up some more whoppers. Maybe he thought the appearance fee he received — estimated to be $320,000, paid for by Queensland taxpayers — necessitated the delivery of some sensational unsubstantiated claims.

To tell an audience that the choice is between Adani and the Great Barrier Reef is puerile and misinformed. To suggest that India is now sourcing 60 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources is just plain wrong — out by a factor of four to five. And these statements come on top of the many falsehoods Gore has peddled in the past. These include:

• In 2006, he claimed that the planet would reach a “point of no return” in 10 years.

• In the same year, he predicted that sea levels would rise by 20 feet (just over 6m) “in the near future”.

• In 2008, he claimed that the north polar cap would be completely ice-free within five years.

• In 2011, he claimed that polar bears would soon become close to extinction (their number has been rising).

Presumably, these faulty predictions were known to the organising committee as well as to the key politicians — Annastacia Palaszczuk, Trad and Environment Minister Leeanne Enoch — who supported the shindig. But Gore is a name and his discredited propaganda doesn’t prevent him from being a regular invitee to the annual conferences of the parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Full post

8) And Finally: The Futility Of Western De-Carbonisation
Ed Hoskins, 17 June 2019 

It is clear that CO2 emissions are continuing to grow incrementally in the Developing World.  This should be anticipated to continue indefinitely.

2018 Global CO2 emissions

The following calculations and graphics are based on information on worldwide CO2 emissions published by BP in June 2019 for the period from 1965 up until the end of 2018.

The pie diagram above shows the proportion of CO2 emissions as of the end of 2018.

The previous post for the end of 2017 is available here

The data showing the progress of CO2 emissions by 2018 in the Developed and Developing worlds can be summarised as follows:

Some initial points arising from the BP data:

* Having been relatively stable overall for the last 7 years, global CO2 emissions grew by ~2.0% in 2018. 2.5% of this growth was in the Developing world whereas 1.1% of the growth was in the Developed world. This growth of ~650,000,000 tonnes in the year was despite all the international “commitments” arising from the Paris Climate Agreement.

* The contrast between the Developed and Developing worlds remains stark:

— developing world emissions overtook Developed world CO2 emissions in 2005

— they have been escalating ever since the likely prognosis of their CO2 emissions that they will continue to grow and accelerate.

* Since 1990 CO2 emissions from the Developed world have decreased, whereas the Developing world has shown a fourfold increase since 1985.  This change is mainly due to:

— the Off-shoring of major industries to parts of the world that have less rigorous environmental standards or who care less about CO2 emissions

— the use of natural gas for electricity generation as opposed to coal as in the USA

— the growing use of Coal firing for electricity generation in the Developing world supported by Chinese technology exports.

— Weather Dependent Renewables have made very little contribution to this reduction is at all: when looked at in the round, from manufacture to demolition they are nether CO2 nor energy neutral

* CO2 emissions in the Developing world are accelerating as the quality of the lives for people in the underdeveloped and developing worlds are progressively improving.  Even so at least 1.12 billion people in the Developing world still have no access to reliable electricity.

* As a result CO2 emissions/head for India and the rest of the world’s Underdeveloped nations (~53% of the world population) remains very low at ~1.8 tonnes / head, (~40% of the Global average) meaning that their state of serious human deprivation and underdevelopment is continuing but it is progressively being rectified.

* By 2018 CO2 emissions from the Developing world were some 62% of the global emissions.

* India and the underdeveloped world will certainly be continuing to promote their own development to attain comparable development levels to their other peer group developing nations.

* India’s growth in CO2 emissions 2017 – 2018 was by a further 7.0%

* China, (still considered here as a “Developing Nation”, according to its un-concerned attitude to the Paris climate accord),  showed domestic CO2 emission growth of 2.14% in 2018.  However China is also promoting the use of coal-firing for electricity generation domestically and across the developing world with some 300 new Coal-fired plants currently in the pipeline.

* At 6.7 tonnes / head China’s CO2 emissions for its population of some 1.42 billion has now approached the average CO2 emissions / head achieved in Europe.

* China’s CO2 emissions / head was already higher than most of the EU Nations other than Germany.

Full post

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at

No comments: