Friday, November 6, 2020

Mike's Minute: Trump in danger of becoming a sore loser


I could have sworn stuff happened yesterday. I spent, yet again, too many hours watching the minutiae unfold stateside.

And yet if you pull back and think about it, since we were here this time yesterday, virtually nothing has changed.

Joe Biden got Michigan and Wisconsin confirmed shortly after we left. But 24 hours on, Arizona is still in play, Georgia is still in play, Lord knows what's happening in North Carolina no one seems to have been seen or heard from anyone there for days, Nevada is still in play, Pennsylvania is still in play, and no one seems to have done a thing in Alaska.  

But the simple truth is time is the only quantum holding back Biden from officially winning this thing.

To summarise, Biden leads in Arizona but his lead is shrinking. Trump leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania, but his leads are shrinking. Biden leads in Nevada, but that is still in play.

So, most people are happy to give North Carolina and Alaska to Trump.

Most people can't see why Biden won't collect Nevada, and if you have him holding Arizona that's 270 and the end of the game. Trump argues Arizona is still in play, it's unlikely but not impossible.

What will finish this for sure is Georgia. It has 16 college votes and Trump's lead is vanishing and fast. If it flips, we are done.

Even Pennsylvania looks troublesome for the President. Same story applies if it flips, and Biden's camp now say they will win it with a wide margin.

Technically, can Trump still find a path to 270? Yes. If he holds Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and flips Nevada. But I don't think even his lawyers, his sons, or he believes that's going to happen.

Which is why we have the lawsuits. That is the sadness of all of this. A lot of this reaction is desperation. If they had confidence, they'd let the counting unfold and see what the numbers say. But they know what the numbers will say, hence they want to stop the counting, or in some places count all over again.

If we are patient enough it might well be that Biden ends up with 310 college votes. That would be better than Trump in 2016. The upside of that is it would be decisive.

I don't blame Trump for eking this out, who wouldn't?

But as each hour passes there is a fine line between looking like a guy who is counting numbers, and a guy who is a sore loser. 

Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

'If we are patient enough it might well be that Biden ends up with 310 college votes.'

If we are patient enough, Biden will end up with 140 million votes, but only if the Democrats need them. According to the officials, they will count every vote until they get the result they declared before the election.