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Thursday, April 1, 2021

GWPF Newsletter: China warns Boris & Biden: Cave to our demands or forget about your climate agenda

 





In message to Joe Biden, India embarks on new coal boom

In this newsletter:

1) China warns Boris & Biden: Cave to our demands or forget about your climate agenda
GWPF & BBC News, 31 March 2021 

2) It's official: India won't bind itself to Net Zero emission target
Hindustan Times, 30 March 2021

  
3) India unlikely to commit to Net-Zero emissions target
OilPrice.com, 30 March 2021
  
4) In message to Joe Biden, India embarks on new coal boom
Bloomberg, 26 March 2021
 
5) African countries deem EU carbon border levy ‘protectionist’
EurActiv, 25 March 2021
 
6) Green energy transition has turned into an existential threat to German economy, Federal Audit Office warns
Die Welt, 31 March 2021
  
7) EU deadlocked over new climate law
EurActiv, 30 March 2021 

8) Vijay Jayaraj: India speeds up fossil-fuelled economy, despite Net Zero noises
GWPF Energy, 26 March 2021

Full details:

1) China warns Boris & Biden: Cave to our demands or forget about your climate agenda
GWPF & BBC News, 31 March 2021

In a shot across the bow China has sent out a clear message to Boris Johnson and Joe Biden: cave in to our demands or forget about your climate agenda.










A critical meeting on climate change, organised by the UK, appears to be the latest victim of an ongoing row with China.
 
Ministers from around 35 countries are due to participate in today’s summit on climate and development.
 
But while the US, EU, India and others are taking part, China is notable by its absence.
 
The UK says that China was invited to the event but is not participating.
 
Relations between the UK and China have deteriorated in recent weeks after angry exchanges about human rights.
 
Just a few days ago China imposed sanctions on nine UK citizens – including five MPs- for spreading what it called “lies and disinformation” about the country.
 
The move came in retaliation for measures taken by the UK government and others over human rights abuses against the Uighur Muslim minority group.
 
China has created a sprawling network of detention camps for minorities in the Xinjiang region
 
Today’s climate and development summit is being described by the UK as a “key moment” in the run up to COP26 in Glasgow later this year.
 
A list of invitees was published two weeks ago including China. But when the final list of participants was circulated, they were absent.
 
A UK COP26 spokesman said China had been invited, adding: “We look forward to working with them on climate change issues in this critical year ahead of COP26.”
When pressed on the reasons for the non-participation, no further comment was forthcoming.

Full story
 
2) It's official: India won't bind itself to Net Zero emission target
Hindustan Times, 30 March 2021
 
Net zero emission targets may be crucial to check devastating impacts of climate change, but they also undermine the principle of equity and “common but differentiated responsibilities” of developed and developing countries

India can endorse the global net zero emissions target date of 2050 but ensure it does not bind us to it individually, said former ambassador to European Union and China and climate negotiator Chandrashekhar Dasgupta in an interview with HT’s Jayashree Nandi.
 
Net zero emission targets may be crucial to check devastating impacts of climate change, but they also undermine the principle of equity and “common but differentiated responsibilities” of developed and developing countries.
 
Dasgupta’s views are significant ahead of the Leaders Summit on Climate to be hosted by US President Joe Biden on April 22-23, which will also be attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The White House announced on January 27 that President Joe Biden will take steps to put the United States (US) on an “irreversible path” to a net zero economy by 2050. There is diplomatic pressure on others including India to also join the net zero target club. Excerpts from an interview:

Can net zero emission targets truly put the world on a low emission trajectory?
 
It is important that global greenhouse gas emissions come down to net zero by mid-century if global warming is to be restricted to tolerable limits. This does not mean that every country can, or should, achieve net zero in the same year. Indeed, in committing themselves to the global target, several countries have made it clear that this not their national target date. China, Brazil and Ukraine have a 2060 target date. Singapore has pledged to reach the target “as soon as possible in the second half of the century”.
 
Long-term net zero pledges by themselves will not put the world on a low emission trajectory. They are no substitute for concrete, accountable short-term national action programmes.

Do national net zero emission targets by 2050 reconcile with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities?
 
No, they undermine the principle of equity and “common but differentiated responsibilities” of developed and developing countries. Developed countries with high per capita emissions should reach the net zero target well before 2050, and others should follow as soon as feasible. Indeed, some developed countries, such as Finland, Norway and Sweden, have pledged to achieve net zero emissions before 2050. Other developed countries should follow this example.
 
Full interview
 
3) India unlikely to commit to Net-Zero emissions target
OilPrice.com, 30 March 2021

Despite growing international pressure, India is unlikely to commit to carbon neutrality by 2050, government officials have told Reuters.
 
Expecting strong energy demand growth in the coming decades and even to outpace China as the world’s largest energy growth driver at some point this decade, India is not willing to bind itself to a hard deadline for reaching net-zero emissions as it fears it may have to compromise economic growth and consumption, Reuters’ sources said.
 
“We may not be able to commit ourselves to net zero emissions, it is a delicate problem,” one of the sources told Reuters.
 
India is the third-largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the world, behind China and the United States.
 
China pledged last year to strive for carbon neutrality by 2060, a decade later than the net-zero emission targets of most Western countries, 2050.
 
The United States, for its part, is pushing for targets for significant reduction of emissions as part of President Joe Biden’s climate agenda. President Biden will host a virtual Leaders Summit on Climate next month, at which he has invited 40 world leaders, including India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping.
 
India will rather stick to its targets under the Paris Agreement to reduce its carbon emissions and to significantly boost renewable energy generation in its electricity mix than commit to a net-zero target, according to the government sources who spoke to Reuters.
 
India would endorse a global net-zero emissions target by 2050, but it cannot bind itself to that target individually, climate negotiator Chandrashekhar Dasgupta told Hindustan Times’ Jayashree Nandi in an interview published on Tuesday.
 
A 2050 net-zero target would mean India’s economy would need “to immediately scrap all existing coal-based power plants and factories, or alternatively, retrofit them with carbon capture and storage technology. This would entail astronomical costs at a time when the economy is already reeling from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic,” Dasgupta told Hindustan Times.
 
Earlier this month, state miner Coal India approved as many as 32 new coal mining projects worth a total investment of US$6.4 billion.
 
4) In message to Joe Biden, India embarks on new coal boom
Bloomberg, 26 March 2021

India has set in motion the biggest ever auction of coal mines in the country despite the fossil fuel’s key role in contributing to global warming.
 
The country will put 67 mines on the block, the most in a single auction. Winners will be allowed to produce and sell the fuel, a reform meant to dislodge state monopoly over the domestic coal market and open it up to private firms. The deadline for submitting technical bids is May 27 and electronic auctions have been scheduled from June 28 to July 28, the coal ministry said on Thursday…
 
“India can’t just stop using coal overnight, it will take a decade or two to do that,” according to Tim Buckley, director of energy finance studies for Australia and South Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, or IEEFA. “It’s still a necessary evil for the country for the medium term.”
 
The government also sees private coal mining as a way to create jobs in an economy devastated by the pandemic. Mining projects will bring in new investments and boost socio-economic development in mining regions, according to the ministry’s statement.

“In this tranche of auction special emphasis has been given on protection of the environment,” the coal ministry’s statement said Thursday. “Coal blocks have been selected in those areas where forest cover is low, coal quality is good, mines are close to the infrastructure facilities and resettlement and rehabilitation has to be done at the minimum.”

Full story
 
see also

Vijay Jayaraj: Wary of the new green wave, India continues to increase its coal capacity


Vijay Jayaraj: India Crafts Fossil Pathway to Secure its Future
 
5) African countries deem EU carbon border levy ‘protectionist’
EurActiv, 25 March 2021

Some African countries consider the EU’s planned carbon border adjustment mechanism to be “protectionist”.



 












That was the upshot of a conference organised by the French government on Tuesday (23 March), where the challenges such a mechanism would cause developing countries were discussed. 
 
According to Youba Sokona, vice-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a carbon border adjustment mechanism would harm “countries with less financial and human capacity,” particularly those with low CO2 emissions.
 
Speaking on behalf of the European Commission, the director general for climate action Raffaele Mauro Petricione acknowledged that “what is expected of an African country in terms of climate policy is not the same as that of a European country.”
 
“This will give rise to heated debates,” he added.
 
Timothy Gore of the Institute for European Environmental Policy shared Sokona’s concerns, noting that “it will all depend on the scope of the measures, what products will be included?”
 
“These countries are very dependent on aluminium exports, they will be very exposed. The ambiguity of the European discourse is to define a small category of high-intensity products. But we don’t know who will be affected,” he added.
 
The future carbon border adjustment mechanism is part of the “new own resources” for the EU budget and must be used to “combat global warming” across the world, Green MEP Yannick Jadot said on Wednesday (3 March). EURACTIV France reports.

Full story
 
6) Green energy transition has turned into an existential threat to Germany economy, Federal Audit Office warns
Die Welt, 31 March 2021

“The Federal Audit Office sees the danger that the energy transition in this form will endanger Germany as a business location and overwhelm the financial strength of electricity-consuming companies and private households. This can ultimately jeopardise social acceptance of the energy transition.”















The Federal Audit Office has accused the Federal Ministry of Economics of insufficiently monitoring the energy transition and of poorly managing it. The auditors have now renewed this criticism of energy policy expressed three years ago in a further special report – and added an explosive analysis of security of supply.“Since our last balance sheet in 2018, too little has been done to successfully shape the energy transition,” said the President of the Federal Audit Office, Kay Scheller, when presenting the second special report: “That is sobering.”
 
There is a threat of ever higher electricity pricesPreviously, the main focus was on controlling the costs of the energy transition, the auditors now also analysed whether Germany’s electricity supply was secure. The result is alarming. According to the study, the federal government does not have “the emerging, real dangers to security of supply in view.” The monitoring of the energy transition is “incomplete”.
 
“Ever higher electricity prices” are also to be feared in the current system. The Federal Court of Auditors quoted from a study according to which an additional 525 billion euros would have to be raised for the power supply including the network expansion in the years 2020 to 2025. Electricity prices for private households are already 43 percent above the European average.
 
“The Federal Audit Office sees the danger that the energy transition in this form will endanger Germany as a business location and overwhelm the financial strength of electricity-consuming companies and private households,” warned Scheller when presenting the special report: “This can ultimately jeopardise social acceptance of the energy transition.”
 
The report is also explosive due to the fact that the auditors had already submitted their criticism to the responsible Federal Ministry of Economics. The answers, explanations and justifications of the ministry, led by CDU politician Peter Altmaier, were incorporated into the auditor’s report. However, these could not significantly soften the conclusions of the auditors. 

Full story (in German)
 
7) EU deadlocked over new climate law
EurActiv, 30 March 2021
 
Little progress was made in the fifth round of negotiations on the European Climate Law last Friday (26 March), despite growing time pressure to have the bill agreed by mid-April, according to people involved in the talks, which are being held behind closed doors.
 
Everything around the climate law was discussed, including the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate targets, said Harriet Mackhaill-Hill from Climate Action Network Europe.
 
The three-way talks – so-called trilogues in EU jargon – are being held behind closed doors in an attempt to find an agreement between the Parliament and the Council of Ministers, the body representing the EU’s 27 member states. The European Commission, for its part, is meant to act as a mediator in the talks.
 
However, EU member states did not give the Council a new mandate to negotiate on their behalf, meaning it could not change its position.
 
“We achieved nothing. There is no deal on anything. There’s no progress. That’s really frustrating for me, because I expected that we [would] make some progress this time,” said Michael Bloss, a Green MEP from Germany, who is part of the European Parliament’s negotiating team, in a press conference after the trilogue on Friday evening.

Parliament negotiators had initially expected substantial progress to be made on proposals to introduce a greenhouse gas budget and establish a European Climate Change Council, an EU scientific advisory body whose role is to verify the bloc’s alignment with the Paris climate goals.
 
But the Council said it did not have a mandate to make concessions and bought time with technical questions, according to sources familiar with the negotiations.
 
Full story

8) Vijay Jayaraj: India speeds up fossil-fuelled economy, despite Net Zero noises
GWPF Energy, 26 March 2021

India is increasingly aiming for a fossil-fuel dominated energy sector, and not a green one.


 
India, the world’s third biggest oil importer, is now on a mission to diversify its oil imports and look beyond the Middle East. For the first time, oil processors and buyers in India are buying oil from Guyana and Brazil.
 
The decision comes at a time where India is facing a complex energy situation which is dominated by rising domestic oil prices and mainstream media’s pressure to make India join the Net Zero bandwagon. 
 
India, it appears, is increasingly aiming for a fossil-fuel dominated energy sector, and not a green one. The new oil markets in South America play right into India’s demands.
 
Focussed on Fossil Fuels, Despite the Net Zero Noises
 
Last week, Bloomberg’s Indian enterprise Bloomberg Quint reported that, “India Considers 2050 Net-Zero Target, a Decade Before China.” It claimed, “Officials close to Prime Minister Narendra Modi” are drawing up a plan to achieve the Net-Zero target.
 
When contacted about the source of this information, Bloomberg did not respond. As of March 25, this information from Bloomberg remains as a false news, as no official sources have confirmed that New Delhi is devising a Net-Zero target for 2050.
 
But other news agencies, both national and international, were quick to redistribute this unofficial statement. India’s NDTV reported, “Under pressure to commit to a net-zero target before climate change talks in Glasgow in November, the world’s third-biggest emitter of greenhouse gases has been considering a 2050 deadline.” 
 
Pressure on India, if any, has been from the journalists, and not those in International bodies. India, despite its renewable push and commitment to be a member of Paris climate agreement, is defiant on its rights to use fossil fuels.
 
Oil is an important commodity in India. It determines prices of all other commodities, as the trucks in the country run almost exclusively on oil. The economic recovery post-COVID19 lockdown has now been negated by increasing oil prices. Increase in oil prices during the last three months has led to a three-month high inflation in the retail sector.
 
At a time when the country is desperately seeking to curtail the inflation and secure additional oil imports, anti-fossil journalists have ushered in confusion by claiming that the Indian government is now aiming to achieve Net-Zero emissions by 2050.

The anti-fossil lobby, which includes journalists, adopt this strategy to pressurise developing countries into shutting down their fossil industry. Not surprisingly, the same authors who made the claims about India’s Net-Zero, came up with an article few days later that called for banishing of coal in India.

India, unfaced with these noises, is currently going ahead with its second tranche of commercial coal mine auctions, where 67 mines across the country were offered for auctions. A constant increase in production is critical to support its expanding fleet of coal plants. India is currently constructing coal plants with capacity of 36.6 GW and a further 29.3 GW are in the pipeline.
 
As a strategy to expedite the auctions, the government has even made a call for private bidders to make a request of their preferred mines. “With rolling auctions, we will upload a comprehensive list of mines along with key technical data and bidders can submit their preferences for the mines to be included in the next tranche of auction.
 
This would be a continuous process and would result in expediting the auction setup. Moreover, it will also help bidders in planning better and would further enhance transparency in the system,” said Pralhad Joshi, India’s Minister for Coal and Mines.
 
South America’s New and Affordable Oil: Attracts India and Other Buyers
 
For major oil importers like India and China, where energy forecasts indicate a prolonged and increased dependence on oil for domestic energy needs, the new oil discoveries in Guyana provides a great opportunity for diversification of imports.
 
After a flurry of oil exploration activity off the coast of Guyana and Suriname, the region has now become an area of interest for oil companies and importers.  Production estimates indicate that oil from Guyana will account for more than 750,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in 2026.
 
John Hess, CEO of Hess Corporation-energy company which is involved in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the region, said that they “continue to see multibillions of future exploration potential remaining in Guyana, where the three partners including China’s CNOOC have made 18 discoveries with recoverable resources of more than 9 billion boe.”
 
“Guyana’s reservoirs rank among the highest quality in the world, with high recovery rates. The reservoirs are relatively shallow with no salt, so wells can be drilled faster than other deepwater basins in the world,” he added.
 
The United States, China, Panama, and the Caribbean are some of the major importers from Guyana. India will be keen on securing imports from Guyana, Suriname and Brazil, as it allows them to reduce their reliance on traditional oil partners who are embroiled in geopolitical volatility.
 
Full post

The London-based Global Warming Policy Forum is a world leading think tank on global warming policy issues. The GWPF newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at www.thegwpf.com.

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