Saturday, January 1, 2022

Net Zero Watch: Europe’s energy crisis may become permanent


In this newsletter:

1) Europe’s energy crisis may become permanent
Bloomberg, 29 December 2021
2) Net Zero Britain: Energy bills explode as fixed energy deals hit £4,000
The Daily Telegraph, 30 December 2021

3) Zoltan Ban: EU energy policy is a trainwreck and risks wrecking Europe's industry & economy
Seeking Alpha, 29 December 2021 
4) Brexiteer MPs campaign against Net Zero EPC targets
Landlord Today, 29 December 2021
5) Tim Newark: Quest for Net Zero has left us with a failed energy policy
6) Matthew Lynn: Politicians should be ashamed of their opposition to fracking
The Daily Telegraph, 26 December 2021
7) Solar influences show up in sea level rise, El Nino events and oceanic climatic cycles
Net Zero Watch, 30 December 2021
8) Samantha Chang: Environmentalists' propaganda pics backfire after people notice something fearmongers missed
The Western Journal, 29 December 2021

Full details:

1) Europe’s energy crisis may become permanent
Bloomberg, 29 December 2021
Don’t let the recent meltdown in European natural gas prices fool you. The energy crunch of 2021 will last for years.

That’s what futures traders are betting on, with spot prices dropping a lot more than forward contracts over the past week. The scale of the moves signal the flotilla of liquefied natural gas cargoes heading to Europe will only provide short-term relief, and prices will still be expensive all the way to March 2023.

Europe is facing an energy crisis, with Russia curbing supplies and nuclear outages in France straining power grids in the coldest months of the year. While more cargoes are landing in Europe for now, the fate of the market is still hanging on the approval of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which President Vladimir Putin says could help cool this year’s 400% rally.

“Europe’s gas problem may not go away next year,” Andrew Hill, head of European gas analysis at BloombergNEF, said in a report on Wednesday.
“Geopolitical issues and acrimony with Russia, particularly around the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, will increase the scope for Russia to limit flows to Europe in the first half of the year, and potentially much longer.”

Full story
2) Net Zero Britain: Energy bills explode as fixed energy deals hit £4,000
The Daily Telegraph, 30 December 2021

Energy suppliers are seeking to tie customers to fixed deals costing as much as £4,000 a year as ministers face growing warnings over “untenable” proposed rises to the price cap this spring.


A 12-month fixed deal for a typical household now costs an average of almost £2,500, according to data from comparison website uSwitch.
That is £500 more per year than the £2,000 level that Ofgem, the energy regulator, is expected to increase the cap on variable tariffs to in April.
Ovo Energy, the UK’s second-biggest supplier, is offering a fixed-rate deal worth just under £4,200, according to the data.
Martin Young, an energy analyst at Investec, said the figure was “staggering” but has predicted energy prices will stay elevated or rise even further next year. He said: “Between the end of November through to the last week, fixed price deals have jumped up.”
The figures underline the stark difference between the costs of providing energy and how much suppliers can charge under the cap on bills. In recent months, the cap has lagged behind surging gas prices, shielding consumers from huge price hikes but forcing suppliers to sell energy at a loss.
It is expected to rise from £1,277 to £2,000 in the spring, but if fixed deals remain pricier – and families choose to stay on variable tariffs protected by the cap – Mr Young warned that suppliers could be put under even more financial pressure. 
Full story
3) Zoltan Ban: EU energy policy is a trainwreck and risks wrecking Europe's industry & economy
Seeking Alpha, 29 December 2021 
There is no telling just how bad the economic situation in the EU can become. There is the obvious immediate effect of many industries becoming uncompetitive given high wage costs, high environmental regulation costs, and on top of it rising energy prices, with occasional rolling blackouts becoming a distinct possibility.
The current high energy price environment in Europe risks becoming more or less permanent, given recent events that center around the Ukraine crisis.
Europe's energy security challenges have their root in the 2014 confrontation over Ukraine. The EU severely misjudged its own natural gas import needs then. It figured that climate change initiatives will severely diminish natural gas demand. It also overestimated LNG availability, especially coming from America's shale boom. It switched from long-term contracts to spot contracts, believing that natural gas will continue to be in the buyer's market state for the foreseeable future. Russia was freed up to shift natural gas to other markets or for internal use as a result.
Contrary to past expectations, EU demand for Russian gas increased about 25% in the 2014-2019 period. In response to further delays to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, it seems Russia may have been nudged towards a final decision on the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline project. If it will be built, it will pit the EU and China against each other for gas from the same fields, with China probably favored as a customer by Russia, given closer relations. If this happens, the EU's energy crisis is set to become permanent, which will devastate its economy. Europe's petrochemical industry is likely to be the first victim, therefore investors should be aware of the more immediate risks.
Russian assets are also likely to suffer a temporary downturn in their value if the Ukraine crisis intensifies, but there should be a swift recovery. Beyond its petrochemical industry, the entire economy of the EU is likely to suffer, therefore most companies with exposure to the EU consumer market are at risk of suffering a hit in coming years.
Europe's natural gas shortage is set to last into next winter, even under the best of circumstances
Europe's natural gas storage facilities that are meant to bridge the supply gap for the winter are currently over 600 Bcf short, which is a 23% shortfall compared with the five-year average.
It is important to understand that the current gap comes within the context of some industrial activities such as petrochemical plants, ceramic factories as well as a number of other industrial activities having been reduced for a number of months now. If it were not for the demand destruction that already took place year to date, the gap would be even larger.
Low spring inventories as well as a significant shortfall in wind and hydropower in some key producing parts of the EU played a major part in the current gap in natural gas inventories. This is the part that tends to be underplayed by most EU officials, as well as many national leaders, with the media doing its part to deflect from the issue. Russia's natural gas delivery policies received far more attention. On that front it gets complicated and it will get far more complicated going forward.
It is true that Russia mainly focused on fulfilling its contractual obligations this year. It has long-term delivery contracts, as well as minimum volume that it needs to send through Ukraine that it has to abide by. Russia is fulfilling those obligations. It is argued that it could do more, but it chooses not to, mostly because it wants to pressure the EU to start using the Nord Stream 2 pipeline which is complete, but not yet certified.
There may be something to that hypothesis, but there is also a lot more to it than that. Russia has increased deliveries to Turkey this year. It also sells a growing volume of gas in the form of LNG. It is also using ever more natural gas domestically, mostly in its own growing petrochemical industry. In fact, it is seeing record demand for natural gas this year from its domestic market. Given Russia's drive to add value to its gas by transforming it into products like fertilizer or other petrochemicals, we are likely to see further growth in Russia's domestic gas market, which means that less and less will be available for exports to Europe.
On the other hand, there is no evidence to date that Europe's own natural gas demand levels are ready to reverse and start declining. At least not without some help from high prices which will destroy demand. It is unlikely therefore that we will see a flood of Russian gas into Europe that will close the inventory gap in 2022. In the absence of some really favorable weather next year, including high winds and warm winter weather, Europe will enter next year's heating season facing the same shortage dilemma it is facing currently.
Europe risks a worsening outlook beyond 2022, which risks a dramatic deindustrialization trend throughout the economy
Russia never signed up to be Europe's safety cushion in case that its energy policies fail. The EU has been pronouncing loudly that it intends to wean itself off the Russian gas dependency and Russia seems to have believed them, even though the EU actually increased its reliance on Russian gas dramatically last decade. Now, with the new frictions surrounding Ukraine and US & NATO on one hand and Russia on the other, it seems Nord Stream 2 is being held up in German regulations limbo as a way to gain leverage.
Russia's response has not been idle, just as it has been the case since 2014 when the Ukraine issue became an irritant in the relationship. Russia immediately turned to China seemingly in an effort to speed up the decision-making for Power of Siberia 2, which is currently in the feasibility study phase. The important detail in regards to this pipeline is that it will mostly draw natural gas from Western Siberia fields that also supply gas to Europe and the bulk of gas for the domestic market. It seems that the current drama surrounding Nord Stream 2 may have nudged Russia towards pursuing a final deal on the project, which will have the capacity to deprive Europe of as much as 55 Bcm/year in natural gas supplies. What happens next in Ukraine may no longer matter in this regard. [...]
Investment implications

As Europe's petrochemicals industry is likely to be hit the hardest and sooner than other industries, there are obvious implications for stocks like BASF. Metals manufacturers like ThyssenKrupp will find that their energy input costs are taking a serious bite out of competitiveness and profitability. Further down the line, the entire EU economy is set to suffer as a result of high energy prices. Keeping this in mind, European companies that are more international in their sales and operations are set to do better than companies that are more dependent on the EU market.
For instance, Renault  is likely to suffer more from a downturn in vehicle sales than Daimler or Volkswagen . Country-specific ETFs or region-specific European ETFs will also reflect the same trend, where ETFs that are more heavily focused on German assets that tend to be more international in terms of operations and sales are set to do better than ETFs that focus more on countries like Belgium or the Netherlands, which have more exposure to the EU consumer market and less to the rest of the world. This is something that is reflected in EU trade data, which is a decent indicator in this regard.

US multinationals that have heavy exposure to the EU are also set to take a significant hit. For instance, Ford is still far more exposed to the EU market than GM. GM sold its Opel division a few years back, which greatly reduced its exposure to the EU market.

There is no telling just how bad the economic situation in the EU can become. There is the obvious immediate effect of many industries becoming uncompetitive given high wage costs, high environmental regulation costs, and on top of it rising energy prices, with occasional rolling blackouts becoming a distinct possibility. There are also systemic effects such as rising inflation rates resulting from high energy prices, which can force the ECB to remove its accommodative policies. Euro-area governments are currently paying next to nothing in interest on their debt.
Full post
4) Brexiteer MPs campaign against Net Zero EPC targets
Landlord Today, 29 December 2021
Two prominent Brexiteer MPs are spearheading a campaign that claims Net Zero energy efficiency policies are unpopular.

In their launch statement, they reference what they claim to be two unpopular policies central to landlords - the phasing out of gas boilers by 2035, and the mandatory EPC ‘C’ rating by 2025.
MPs Steve Baker and Craig Mackinlay are spokespeople for the Net Zero Scrutiny Group, which includes some 40 MPs.

This survey suggests that three in five UK adults say they would not be willing to pay higher taxes on their energy bills to help reach Net Zero targets - that's including 49 per cent of Labour and Green Party voters.

The poll suggests that 65 per per of UK adults say the public have not been given enough of a say on the government’s Net Zero policies, and while 30 per cent of 18 to 24 year olds feel their voices have been heard, only 10 per cent of all those over 45 feel they have had sufficient input.

In its statement the campaign cites the Poll Tax as bringing down the Thatcher premiership 30 years ago and says:

“With a raft of measures set for introduction, such as the phasing out of gas boilers by 2035, petrol and diesel cars and vans by 2030, and the mandatory EPC ‘C’ rating for landlords by 2025, the current government looks as if it is heading towards a Poll Tax moment of their own. These figures clearly show that the country is not behind either the policies or the direction of travel, and over two-thirds don’t feel they’ve been given a say.”

Mackinlay chairs a new activist body called the Net Zero Scrutiny Group and says: “I didn’t become a Conservative to make my constituents colder and poorer.
“It’s clear, looking at these figures, that the British public are not signed up to the government’s plans. They feel they haven’t been consulted or had their say; the majority don’t feel that government grants for air pumps or electric cars are either relevant to them, or more fundamentally needed to nudge them towards unreliable technologies they don’t want, and there is real worry about the ever-increasing costs of energy bills this winter.
“The general public are quite obviously not onside, and we need to be very careful about just whose shoulders are going to be carrying the very considerable costs of Net Zero.”
Meanwhile Baker - who heads the steering group for the same activist body - adds: “I’ve warned that the cost of Net Zero could deliver a political crisis greater than the Poll Tax, and these figures show that the government are heading straight for such an eventuality."


“The British people are clearly deeply unhappy about paying higher taxes to help reach Net Zero targets and feel they haven’t been consulted about the choices the government are making.
“Grants for air pumps and electric cars are all very well, but how many people can actually afford to pay all the additional costs? 20 per cent think they will actually benefit.
“We are heading down a path where blithe promises are made without considering the realities of current technology and the fact that many people in this country will just be left colder and poorer.“
5) Tim Newark: Quest for Net Zero has left us with a failed energy policy
The Daily Express, 29 December 2021
If Boris Johnson has seen his approval ratings dip recently, they'll go into freefall when we receive our inflated household fuel bills in April, yet this has been a crisis waiting to happen. Governments across Europe should have been preparing for it but buried their heads in the sand, preferring ideology over common sense.

Increased winter fuel allowances and a relaxation of green levies could help those most vulnerable to plunging temperatures and rocketing bills. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng met energy bosses on Monday and the news was dire. Wholesale energy prices are peaking just as storage facilities are at their lowest for years and wind power generation has hit a ten-year low, falling by 15 percent this year despite there being more turbines. Russia playing politics with gas supply lines has not helped, just as the EU and UK is embracing a Net- Zero policy that puts all their eggs in a renewables basket.

It's a perfect storm that is going to hit consumers and industry hard next spring when price caps are raised by Ofgem. Already 30 energy suppliers have collapsed this year in the UK and many experts say this is only the beginning of an energy crisis similar to 2008's financial crash that rocked the world.

If Boris Johnson has seen his approval ratings dip recently, they'll go into freefall when we receive our inflated household fuel bills in April, yet this has been a crisis waiting to happen. Governments across Europe should have been preparing for it but buried their heads in the sand, preferring ideology over common sense.

Even the USA, a net exporter of energy just a few years ago, has seen President Joe Biden forced to beg Arab states to pump more oil to bring down gas pump prices at home or face annihilation in next year's midterm elections. The UK, however, appears to have been more blind than other nations, and for longer, to the problems we now face.

Energy expert Clive Moffatt has warned governments since 2010 to take a more balanced approach to decarbonisation, but a Conservative fixation with green targets has skewed their judgment. "We were getting the message very clearly from [government] officials they were very reluctant to endorse any possibility there was even a medium-term future for natural gas," he says.

But with North Sea production of gas and oil going down and imports going up "we become extremely vulnerable," says Moffatt. Add to that a plunging energy storage capability of just 1.7 percent when anything goes wrong with European pipelines or failing renewables, and our present crisis was inevitable whatever else was going on in the world.

"You have to look at it in terms of carbon reduction, affordability and security," says Moffatt. "You can't simply dump two of those and focus on one. If you do that the least well off in society will suffer most." After ten years of such advice, you can't say the Government wasn't warned and yet it merrily carried on its path towards Net Zero, depending more and more on importing energy to allow it to offshore its carbon emissions.

Despite shale gas being put on hold from 2019 and energy giants such as Shell discouraged from exploring the North Sea, latest figures from National Grid ESO reveal that in 2021 we depended more on carbon energy to keep our lights on than previous years.

Wind declined to 19 percent of our energy mix, while nuclear power fell by 10 percent to its lowest proportion since 1982. The gap was filled by natural gas which, of course, is now subject to rocketing international prices as we import almost twice as much from abroad.

FOR a nation that made its industrial wealth from a lucky access to cheap carbon energy beneath our feet, it's an energy policy that is unsustainable. As a result, our government is now having to use taxpayers' money to subsidise power providers to lessen the impact on customers.

"Expecting consumers to shoulder that volatility without any support from government is unrealistic," said Stephen Fitzpatrick, founder of Ovo Energy, this week. "It's a £25billion hit to consumer spending." Potentially the single biggest hurdle to growth next year, it could easily have been avoided by government taking a longerterm, common-sense approach to energy production.

Taking years to build up our storage capacity and a greater variety of energy generation, the Government is now left with little choice but to cut VAT, reduce green tariffs and widen winter fuel allowances or face a hurricane of resentment from voters.
6) Matthew Lynn: Politicians should be ashamed of their opposition to fracking
The Daily Telegraph, 26 December 2021
While gas prices are soaring in Europe, in the US they have barely moved thanks to its shale sector

Factories may have to close. Power may need to be rationed. And we may well have to make painful concessions to the Russian president Vladimir Putin on Ukraine simply to keep the lights on.
Meanwhile, industrial conglomerates such as Sir Jim Ratcliffe’s Ineos, among the biggest manufacturing businesses the UK has left, are facing a huge financial hit. The whole of Europe, and Britain just as much as anywhere, is gripped by a worsening gas crisis with prices soaring by the day.
But hold on. If only there was a plentiful supply of energy close to home, and we didn’t have to rely on a foreign autocrat, or a volatile global market, for supplies. Except, of course, there was. Rewind just a decade and Europe was on the cusp of a fracking boom. 
There are vast quantities of shale oil and gas in the North of England, and even more in France and Poland. The trouble is, our political leaders shamefully caved into a handful of environmental extremists, and let it be effectively stopped. We are paying a high price for that now – and the very least we can do is learn the right lessons from that.

It looks set to be a tough winter for the European energy market. In the last week alone, gas prices have jumped by more than 20pc, hitting fresh all-time highs. Power-intensive industries such as chemicals are already feeling the strain. So are domestic consumers, with more suppliers going broke by the week, and with those that remain set to increase prices sharply very soon. We all know the reasons for that. 

Supplies of natural gas from Russia have fallen, the market for LNG arriving on tankers from countries such as Qatar has become very tight, and storage facilities have been allowed to run down. The result? A classic bear market squeeze, with prices spiralling. A few hedge funds that called it right will be reporting vast profits very soon. Everyone else will suffer, and there are already calls for yet another expensive government bailout to cover the cost.

Here is something odd, however. While gas prices are soaring in Europe, in the US they have barely moved. Measured by oil barrel equivalent, US gas is at slightly over $70, compared with more than $220 on this side of the Atlantic. The difference? The Americans turn their thermostats down? They put on an extra couple of jumpers? Not exactly. In fact, they use more power than we do. But the US has a huge shale industry, with industrial scale fracking. And we don’t.

That is not because there is any shortage of shale oil and gas. In truth, there is tons of the stuff. The Bowland Shale Reserve that stretches across the North of England is estimated to hold 37 trillion cubic metres of oil and gas. There is plenty more in the Weald Basin in the South, stretching from Tunbridge Wells to Winchester, and even more in Scotland and Northern Ireland. France has vast reserves (an estimated 137 trillion cubic feet) and Poland has even more. In short, there is plenty.

The problem is no one is allowed to extract it. France decided on a total ban in 2017, a decision upheld by President Emmanuel Macron, while in this country it has been put on hold more or less indefinitely, as it has across most of the rest of Europe.

And yet, what was the real harm? The only genuine problem with fracking in the US is that for most of the last few years, prices haven’t been high enough to make it worthwhile. Otherwise, it has been completely successful. The country hasn’t been ravaged by earthquakes, nor has it damaged unborn babies, to take just a couple of the scare stories put out by its opponents. It has been just fine. 

In reality, the anti-frackers that dominated the debate make the anti-vaxxers look like pillars of scientific rationality by comparison. They peddled a toxic mixture of alarmism and conspiracy theories that were completely untroubled by evidence or reason. It is even relatively clean. 

There is some evidence fracking emits a higher level of methane, which would put it on a par with coal (still mainly used in Germany and Poland) but the mainstream consensus is that it is roughly the same as natural gas. If we had developed it, the only difference would be that it would have created jobs and wealth in this country, instead of Russia, prices would have been stable, and we wouldn’t have to make any concessions to Mr Putin. Would that have been a terrible outcome?
Instead, our political leaders caved in to a handful of extreme environmental activists, dead set against any form of industrial development, and stopped its development right across Europe. 
In reality, we have created this whole crisis in a fit of virtue signalling. We need to learn the lessons of what is fast turning into one of the most catastrophic policy mistakes of recent times. Sure, medium-term we want to switch to clean, renewable energy. 
Wind and solar power should be providing the bulk of our energy, and the technology is coming on stream to make that both achievable and affordable (sic) by the 2030s. And yet, that will take some time. Until then we could have been fracking our way to energy security. The harsh truth is that again and again, a timid policy establishment meekly gives in to extreme views, and sacrifices the medium-term interests of industry and households for a few short-term headlines. 

The UK is guilty of that, and so is the whole of Europe. If we do end up sitting in the dark this winter, and the factories do get closed, it will be entirely our own fault.
7) Solar influences show up in sea level rise, El Nino events and oceanic climatic cycles
Net Zero Watch, 30 December 2021
Dr David Whitehouse, Science editor
The Sun’s energy effects our climate but its influence is often ignored as changes in its intensity are very small. Its effect might be subtle but over decadal periods it adds up to being significant as a series of recent papers show.

Scientists from the University of California, Irvine, the National Taiwan Normal University, and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, find that the 11-year solar cycle has a significant correlation with sea surface temperature variations in the North-eastern Pacific. They believe that the Sun’s influence is first seen and then amplified in the lower stratosphere, but it then alters the circulation in the troposphere which then affects the temperature of the ocean.
They note that the changes have a structure similar to that of the Pacific meridional mode – an interaction between trade winds and ocean evaporation which is an important trigger of the central Pacific (CP) type of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
It seems that the 11-year solar cycle modulates the CP ENSO and, in particular, is associated with more CP El Nino events during the active phase of the cycle and more La Nina events when the solar cycle undergoes a downturn.
The solar influence is also apparent in other aspects of airflow in the tropics. A team from Oxford University, Aarhus University, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Imperial College London, and the Gantham Institute, of Imperial College London, recently provided observational evidence that the solar cycle affects atmospheric circulation over the Pacific on decadal timescales finding that there is a reduction of east–west sea-level pressure gradients over the Indo-Pacific Ocean during solar maxima and the following few years.
This reduction is associated with westerly wind anomalies at the surface and throughout the equatorial troposphere in the western/central Pacific as well as an eastward shift of precipitation that brings more rainfall to the central Pacific. It’s an effect that shows up in some climate models that use simulations considering only solar irradiance variations.

A missed connection
Another recent study shows a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions suggesting that solar variability can drive seasonal weather variability on Earth. If the connection outlined in the journal Earth and Space Science holds up, it could significantly improve the predictability of the largest El Nino and La Nina events. According to Scott McIntosh, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and co-author of the paper.
“The scientific community has been unclear on the role that solar variability plays in influencing weather and climate events here on Earth. This study shows there’s reason to believe it absolutely does and why the connection may have been missed in the past.”

The paper does not examine what physical connection between the Sun and Earth could be responsible for the correlation, but that there are several possibilities such as the influence of the Sun’s magnetic field on the incidence of cosmic rays that bombard Earth.
team from the Australian National University, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and Australian Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes find a solar influence on the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) – an important pattern of climate variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, with major regional climate impacts.
Whilst the available evidence shows changes in the SAM since the 1960s can be accounted for by climate models earlier trends in palaeo-climate SAM reconstructions cannot be reconciled with more recent simulations.The researchers find that the mean SAM state can be significantly altered by solar irradiance changes. They suggest that the effects of solar forcing on high-latitude climate may not be adequately incorporated in most last millennium simulations.
Researchers from the Jeju National University in Korea and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have looked at the various factors that influence the rate of increase of global mean sea level and detect the influence of the global temperature hiatus.One suggestion for the hiatus was that the oceans absorbed more heat reducing the heating of the surface. Recently however observations have shown that ocean uptake actually slowed down during the hiatus.
They found a “distinct decade-long fluctuation with a peak period of ~12 years,” that was in phase with the hiatus. They also saw a “strong relationship” between global mean sea level and the PDO – a pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centred over the mid-latitude Pacific – with the PDO undergoing a change around 2011 coincident with what they consider to be the end of the hiatus. Others consider that the hiatus went on somewhat longer.
They conclude, “there is an oceanic response to the solar cycle on decadal timescales.”
8) Samantha Chang: Environmentalists' propaganda pics backfire after people notice something fearmongers missed
The Western Journal, 29 December 2021
Now that Democratic fearmongering policies have failed to stem the pandemic as promised and have instead resulted in more COVID-19 deaths under President Joe Biden than under former President Donald Trump, the left is amping up its climate alarmism — only to be lampooned for its frivolous propaganda.
The hilarity erupted Sunday on Twitter after the left-wing blog DCist ominously warned, “This is what D.C. will look like if the world continues on its current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions.”
To stoke climate hysteria, the website attached a hypothetical reimagining of a majestic Lincoln Memorial surrounded by water.

Essentially, DCist — citing research from the nonprofit group Climate Central — suggested that “global warming” would cause ocean levels to rise at alarming rates if left unchecked.

“These images represent predictions of the longterm sea-level rise that will eventually result, if the globe warms 3 degrees,” the article said.

Of course, the irony is that many Americans would be thrilled if the D.C. swamp were engulfed by water.
Moreover, the liberal cesspool actually looks better in the “after” image.

The article conceded that the hypothetical effect of global warming “could take centuries” and there’s nothing we can do to mitigate its supposed future impact.
“This rising of the oceans could take centuries, even after carbon emissions stop, as glaciers and ice sheets melt,” DCist said. “Even if global carbon emissions were to magically end tomorrow, the oceans would still rise several feet due to the greenhouse gasses already in the atmosphere.”

Basically, DCist fomented panic over a hypothetical scenario that it says cannot be stopped no matter what we do.

So what’s the point of breathlessly stoking terror and hysteria? There is no point, and that sums up the left’s propaganda war in a nutshell.
But the fearmongering grift is up, as evidenced by how brutally mocked DCist was when its propaganda backfired in epic fashion.

Tony Shaffer, a former U.S. intelligence officer, tweeted: “LOL- in 50 thousands years…more fear porn from the progressive left death cult…”

Numerous Twitter users said they loved the imagined transformation and can’t wait for it to happen. [...]
Democrats and their media lapdogs have been rabidly hyping the bogus narrative that climate change is an imminent existential threat to mankind in a cynical move to push left-wing agendas.

That’s the assessment of physicist Steven Koonin, who said climate alarmists have flippantly weaponized this sham talking point to enrich and empower themselves.

“It’s a fiction of the media and the politicians who like to promote that notion,” Koonin said in June on Fox Nation’s “Tucker Carlson Today.”

Koonin is not right-wing; he served as the undersecretary for science in former President Barack Obama’s Department of Energy.

The theoretical physicist and engineering professor is currently the director of the Center for Urban Science and Progress at New York University.

Despite the nonstop environmental hysteria spewed by Democrats, Koonin said “human influences” are not responsible for natural disasters such as hurricanes and intermittent heat waves, which he said are just as common today as they were in 1900.
Full post
See also Steven Koonin's 2021 Annual GWPF Lecture (pdf) 

The London-based Net Zero Watch is a campaign group set up to highlight and discuss the serious implications of expensive and poorly considered climate change policies. The Net Zero Watch newsletter is prepared by Director Dr Benny Peiser - for more information, please visit the website at

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