Ian Bradford: One explanation for the excess rain, mostly in the North Island, and a look back in history.

Much worse weather events occurred back in history.

Much has been made of Cyclone Gabrielle and the rain and flooding, mostly in the North Island, by the Labour Government.  This has been reflected in the basically government controlled news media. Both the cyclone and the rain are weather events - not climate.

Any reasonable person would think that the Tongan eruption putting huge amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere and all the rain that has followed is no coincidence. I cannot recall any deluge, such as we have seen for the past few months, in my lifetime.   

On the 15^th January 2022, The Tongan volcano erupted. It was the largest eruption since Krakatoa in 1883.  The energy released was 1000 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.  What set this volcano apart from most others was the huge amount of water vapour sent into the atmosphere, estimated to be between 20,000 and 200,000 tonnes and enough to fill about 58000 Olympic size swimming pools. Most went into the stratosphere.  This water vapour triggered a very large number of intense lightening storms. 

No other volcano in living memory has put more water vapour into the atmosphere. Most volcanoes erupt ash, dust, sulphur dioxide, water and carbon dioxide.  Krakatoa erupted large amounts of sulphur dioxide. The sulphur dioxide moves into the stratosphere  and combines with water to form sulphuric acid aerosols. The sulphuric acid causes a haze of tiny droplets  which reflect incoming solar radiation causing a cooling of the earth’s surface. The Karakatoa eruption cooled the earth by about 0.6 deg C.  The cooling may last for many years. Eventually, the droplets grow large and fall to earth.  So most volcanoes can cause a cooling of the earth.

 

As far as the Tongan volcano is concerned it is estimated that the eruption increased the water vapour in the atmosphere by between 10 and 15%. Sulphur dioxide was a minor factor. Water reflects radiation from the sun back into outer space, while reflecting the Earth’s radiation back to the surface. This warms the Earth’s surface but cools the stratosphere.  After the Tongan volcano eruption, the stratosphere over Antarctica has been approximately one to three degrees colder than usual. The cold air is strengthening the polar vortex - the winds that swirl around Antarctica. A consistent band of westerly wind flows across the southern hemisphere and circles the South Pole.  The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) describes how this moves: either north towards the equator - the negative phase, or south towards Antarctica – the positive phase.   The SAM actually has three phases, neutral, positive and negative.  The time frame between positive and negative events is quite random, but typically is in the range of a week to a few months. The effect that SAM has on rainfall varies greatly.  

The Southern polar vortex. Winds circulating in a clockwise direction giving rise to westerly winds.  With the colder stratosphere over Antarctica the polar vortex is stronger.    

The polar vortex is measured by one of the climate drivers the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). SAM appears to be in a positive mode.  When the polar vortex and SAM are stronger than normal as they are now the powerful westerlies stay closer to Antarctica. So NZ sees fewer colder fronts and less windy weather.   Perhaps that is why Wellingtonians are saying that it has been remarkably calm there lately. This allows the east Coast of NZ to see more days with offshore winds bringing extra wet weather. 

The volcanic eruption meant there was high confidence that the SAM would be stuck in a positive phase till at least the end of last summer.  So between La Nina and the Southern Annular mode, for the vast majority of the east Coast and to a lesser extent eastern inland there was a high chance of wetter than usual weather right through to the end of last summer and even beyond.

Since mid 2020 we have been in three La Nina events and now the third one is enhanced by the positive SAM bringing consistent wetter than normal weather. 

There is some dispute about the spread of the water vapour. Some say it is mostly confined to the Southern Hemisphere. 

The changes between the positive and negative  SAM will give different weather patterns in NZ. Whatever the explanation, I think there is a correlation between the huge amount of water vapour erupted from the Tongan volcano and the rain we are experiencing. It is not climate, but a weather event and will pass in time - an estimated 7-8 years, for the extra water vapour to disappear.   

Weather Events in the Past

The following relate to the UK and Europe in the middle ages. 

1091:  The London tornado. There were two deaths, the early London bridge, 600 houses and many churches were all demolished.

1252-53:   both dry years with excessive heat. Many died from the excessive heat.

1287:   St Lucia’s flood. The flood killed hundreds in England. This flood along with the Southern England flood of February 1287 contributed to the decline of Dunwich as a major port.  

1703:   The great storm of 1703. There were up to 15,000 deaths, ships lost, massive damage to buildings and trees.

1770:      Flooding and storms in August 1770 throughout southern England. 

1839:       Night of the big wind. A European windstorm spread across Ireland causing hundreds of deaths and severe damage to property. Gusts were over 190km/hr. 

In Britain, it rained almost non-stop throughout the period of summer and autumn of 1314 then through most of 1315 and 1316. Crops rotted, and there were failed harvests and livestock either drowned or starved. 

Here is an extract from an article by Dr Jim Galloway: 

The later middle ages were a period of climate change. This was an age of cooling, at least in the North Atlantic region, including northern and western Europe.  A relatively warm climate phase was coming to an end in the 13^th century, and a cooling trend had set in, which with some temporary interruptions led to the well known “Little Ice Age.” This process was associated with increasing storminess particularly marked in countries bordering the North Sea, where damaging storm surges became more common. In the low countries such storm surges caused widespread loss of life and the permanent loss of extensive areas of land which had been reclaimed in earlier centuries.  Numerous storms and storm surges battered the coast of eastern and southern England between the 13^th and 15th centuries.

Then there was the Great Wind of 1362. It damaged buildings and terrified inhabitants in England.  But it had a more deadly impact on the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark. This day is called Grote Mandrenke – the great drowning of men.  Along the coasts of these countries, storm surges sent flood waters which washed away towns and villages leaving tens of thousands dead.         

Finally, a new record of sediment deposits from Cape Cod Massachusetts in the USA, shows evidence that 23 severe cyclones (called hurricanes in the northern hemisphere), hit New England between the years 250 and 1150 AD. This means a severe storm every 40 years on average. Many of these hurricanes were likely more intense than any that have hit the area in more recent times.  These much earlier hurricanes were likely category 3 storms like Hurricane Katrina, or a category 4 storm like Hugo. These would be catastrophic if they hit the region today. 

One of the researchers Jeffrey Donnelly said these records show that this much older interval of hurricanes was unlike what we have seen in the last few hundred years.  

So here we have it. We had no industries to speak of, no cars, planes, relatively low numbers of livestock, etc, we had low human CO2 levels, and low Methane levels,  yet these storms still occurred. Doesn’t that strongly suggest there is no correlation between Carbon Dioxide and Methane levels, and the storms? 

Humans were NOT the cause of Cyclone Gabrielle. It was a natural weather event.

Footnote:    Unbelievable news from the US president Biden and the White house. They are open to a plan that would block sunlight from hitting the surface of the earth in a bid to limit global warming!!!!  One suggestion is to increase the amount of aerosols in the stratosphere in order to reflect the sun’s rays back into space.

Firstly, the earth has been cooling since 1998, though climate alarmists keep telling us it is warming. Secondly, what a devastating effect this would have on the population. Millions would die due to inability to grow crops in many regions.  Are we seeing the WEF agenda in action again? Reduce the world’s population (by billions).  Thirdly, changing the content of the atmosphere could be dangerous. 

Here’s the crunch:  Carbon Dioxide levels would continue to rise!!!!  if they carried out this monstrous idea.  CO2 levels are independent of the Earth’s temperature. 

Ian Bradford, a science graduate, is a former teacher, lawyer, farmer and keen sportsman, who is writing a book about the fraud of anthropogenic climate change.