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Monday, March 24, 2025

Dave Patterson: Where the Ukraine Ceasefire Negotiations Stand


From the ashes sometimes rises a glimmer of hope. Since the unfortunate dust-up in the Oval Office between President Trump and Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, there has been progress – albeit modest – in achieving a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. And what appeared to be an acrimonious and doomed relationship between DC and Kyiv has been salvaged, possibly even improved beyond what many thought possible.

Ending the Ukraine Conflict Is Daunting

As cooler heads prevailed, President Trump showed no indication of backing down from his crusade to end the war in Ukraine. But what he has taken on is no easy feat. The American president’s plate is full without attempting to make peace between warring nations half a world away. “President Donald Trump has inherited an unstable world from his successor. His administration has the daunting task of simultaneously bringing two wars, one in Ukraine, the other in the Levant, to a close,” The Daily Signal observed.

However, in the interest of doing the next thing in solving the Ukraine dilemma, Trump sent emissaries to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, for discussions with the Russians. He has talked personally with President Vladimir Putin. He re-engaged with President Zelensky to get his buy-in on the progress toward a ceasefire and ultimate peace deal. “Just completed a very good telephone call with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “It lasted approximately one hour. Much of the discussion was based on the call made yesterday with President Putin in order to align both Russia and Ukraine in terms of their requests and needs.”

A more detailed readout of the call was released in a statement by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz. Among the first comments that Zelensky made when thanking President Trump for America’s support to Ukraine was an acknowledgment that President Trump was the first to provide Javelin anti-tank missiles during his first term. Previous requests to the Obama administration had gone unanswered. A topic that didn’t come up in prior discussions was Ukraine’s electrical energy grids and nuclear power facilities. The president suggested, “[T]hat the United States could be very helpful in running those plants with its electricity and utility expertise. American ownership of those plants would be the best protection for that infrastructure and support for Ukrainian energy infrastructure.”

This offer is consistent with President Trump’s previously stated belief that having American technicians and workers on the ground in Ukraine working with Ukrainians is better security assurance than a military presence. Putin knows that a deliberate assault on US citizens would demand a military response from American armed forces, and the Kremlin leader could not afford that happening.

According to the statement, one of the elements of the limited ceasefire agreement had, in fact, taken place on March 19. Zelensky thanked President Trump for the emphasis on “humanitarian concerns, including the exchange of POWs [Prisoners of War]. He noted they had just had a successful exchange.” Putin had agreed to an exchange of 175 prisoners and 23 gravely wounded Ukrainians in his phone call with Trump. The Russian leader saw this exchange as a “gesture of goodwill.” The US chief executive has, since the beginning of the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, been concerned by the Russians capturing towns and the wholesale kidnapping and relocation of Ukrainian children to Russia. To that end, “President Trump also asked President Zelenskyy about the children who had gone missing from Ukraine during the war, including the ones that had been abducted. President Trump promised to work closely with both parties to help make sure those children were returned home,” according to the Rubio-Waltz statement.

The Peace Process Is Moving, Albeit Slowly

To move the peace process along rapidly, both presidents agreed to dispatch their representatives to continue the process of extending the current ceasefire and achieving “lasting peace and security.” In a Fox News interview, the US special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, expressed his optimism about “technical talks” in the near future – that is when both sides sit down and hash out an actual ceasefire, perhaps even, eventually, a peace treaty. “And we’re only at day 58 [in Trump’s second term], and he’s driven that … The talks [with Putin and Zelensky] were exceptional,” Kellogg explained.

Getting to a successful long-term peace deal will not be easy. Putin demands that Ukraine reduce its armed forces, house no peacekeeping or foreign troops, remove its forces from the Kursk region, and give up any hopes of NATO membership. In the context of who’s the aggressor and who’s the victim, the Russian demands are excessive. Security assurance has been a consistent requirement made by Kyiv. Those Kremlin negotiating points leave Ukraine effectively defenseless. Zelensky has indicated that territory held by Russian troops in Ukraine is at risk. Kellogg made the point that there is a distinction between land Russia merely occupies, referred to as de facto, and land Russia both occupies and has annexed, called de jure. Those de facto Russian-captured areas are more likely to be negotiated elements.

Progress has been made in a ceasefire in the Ukraine fighting, but there is a long way to go. The agreement to reconvene discussions between the US and Ukraine quickly is a very encouraging result of the recently concluded talks. One thing is clear. President Trump will not stop until there is a resolution to the conflict.

Dave is a retired U.S. Air Force Pilot with over 180 combat missions in Vietnam. He is the former Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Comptroller and has served in executive positions in the private sector aerospace and defense industry. This article was first published HERE

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