More than 80,000 Kiwis must quit smoking before the end of the year to meet the goal of Smokefree 2025, which was launched 14 years ago.
But Professor of Public Health Chris Bullen tells The Detail that it is unlikely to happen – “I don’t believe so, sadly.
“The evidence suggests we are not heading in the right direction fast enough,” says Bullen, who is also the director of the National Institute for Health Innovation.
“We have got more work to do in 2026 and beyond.”
The smokefree goal aims to have less than 5 percent of the population smoking by December, but the latest data reveals there are still about 300,000 daily smokers across the country.
The daily smoking rate has dropped from 16.4% to 6.9% since 2011, which is a huge reduction. It is correct that it is unlikely to drop 1.9% in one year, as those remaining are a small but persistent hardcore.
Bullen says part of the issue is, last year, the coalition government repealed three areas of the Smokefree law, most importantly the denicotinisation of tobacco products (where the nicotine is basically taken out of cigarettes) and banning the sale of tobacco products to those born after 1 January 2009.
“I think we could have gotten to the goal under the previous legislation, but that was repealed by the current government.
This is just nonsense, and we know it is because look at when these provisions were to come into force. The ban (which would not have worked) to those born after 1 January 2009 would not take effect until 2027, so claiming it would help you make a 2025 target is embarrassing.
A tobacco industry-funded report has just revealed that 25 percent of cigarettes sold in New Zealand are from the black market, smuggled into the country, largely from China and South Korea, and available on Facebook Marketplace, at construction sites, and in some dairies.
Black market cigarettes are about half the price of legal packets, which can cost up to $45.
But Bullen is not convinced the percentage of illegal sales is as high as reported. He says it is more likely around the 10-15 percent mark.
He believes the tobacco industry inflates the number – and the problem – to “encourage the government to ease up on being tough on their product”.
Here Professor Bullen has an opinion that the black market is not as high as as reported, but with not any proof or data to back his view.
One source of data is government excise revenue on tobacco. For the year to March 2025 it was $1.49b and in March 2023 it was $1.81b. So it has dropped 18% despite the rate going up and no reported change in smoking rates in this period.
New research, which overlays vape stores on school locations, shows 44 percent of schools have a vape store within a one-kilometre radius
This old chestnut. There is almost no area in urban New Zealand that is not within a 1 kms radius of a school. That is a 314 hectare circle. We have 2,500 schools.
Since 2020, it has been illegal to sell vapes to people under 18, but students as young as 10 and 11 are vaping across New Zealand today.
Yet he is convinced prohibition works!
David Farrar runs Curia Market Research, a specialist opinion polling and research agency, and the popular Kiwiblog where this article was sourced. He previously worked in the Parliament for eight years, serving two National Party Prime Ministers and three Opposition Leaders
2 comments:
Interesting that so much smuggling of tobacco products comes here from Asia. I guess such activities follow the migratory pathways and habits thereof. Google tells us that China alone supports around 300 million tobacco-users, so naturally a certain amount heads this way (linked with other illegal activities, as reported in the NZH). As for prohibition, it drives things underground, that’s all.
Prohibition does more than drive matters underground, especially addiction. It indirectly encourages the activity by giving it mystique and making it a focus of rebellion. The Labour Government's plan would have reversed the trend towards reduced smoking.
Much of the reduction in smoking over recent decades came about through information about harmfulness and through making it unfashionable. The ban on smoking in indoor bars, restaurants, workplaces etc helped. Taxing helped too but probably also contributed to developing a black market. The last government's plan was prohibition done in a staggered way depending on birth date. That would have brought about all the problems that prohibition, especially of an addictive drug, brings. Another source of revenue for criminal gangs, another reason for gang and underground violence, another way to criminalise users who are not essentially criminally inclined, another reason for turning the population against police. Prohibition of substances that people enjoy consuming is usually a stupid, knee-jerk reaction by ill-informed people.
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