The polling industry, whose only answer to fairly obvious questions seems to be “this is just a snapshot in time”, may have trouble explaining the past week of polling in this country.
There was one on Tuesday night and one on Wednesday morning. They have completely different results.
One has Luxon as the most popular leader.
One has Hipkins as the most popular leader.
One has National leading Labour.
One has Labour leading National.
One has the current Government as the current Government.
One has a new Government, with the current Government out.
It doesn’t get a lot more contrasting than that.
Even if you accept a lot of the numbers are tightish, some of the numbers aren't even within the margin of error.
It's almost as though the polls aren't accurate.
It's almost as though you could ring up 1000 people and get one answer, then ring up another set of 1000 people and get a completely different answer.
If you can do that, why would you pay money to people who will tell you these things mean anything?
At least TVNZ use commercial money to pay for this stuff.
Radio New Zealand, who seem to have taken over from TV3, use our money. And given they have just had a budget cut and given they are losing their audience at a rate of knots, I'm not sure this can be classed as quality expenditure.
I went to their website yesterday. The headline was "What the polls are telling us in 7 charts".
And there they were. There was lots of colour, lots of lines up and down, and squiggles.
But I already knew, given I had seen the charts from the night before, that either their charts meant nothing, or if they did mean something, then the other guy's charts weren't up to much.
Or quite possibly if we did this charade for a third time, they would both be exposed as having shonky numbers.
But remember: "they are only a snapshot in time". Except given they were done at the same time, they aren't, are they?
So what are they, other than a very large waste of time and money?
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
One has Hipkins as the most popular leader.
One has National leading Labour.
One has Labour leading National.
One has the current Government as the current Government.
One has a new Government, with the current Government out.
It doesn’t get a lot more contrasting than that.
Even if you accept a lot of the numbers are tightish, some of the numbers aren't even within the margin of error.
It's almost as though the polls aren't accurate.
It's almost as though you could ring up 1000 people and get one answer, then ring up another set of 1000 people and get a completely different answer.
If you can do that, why would you pay money to people who will tell you these things mean anything?
At least TVNZ use commercial money to pay for this stuff.
Radio New Zealand, who seem to have taken over from TV3, use our money. And given they have just had a budget cut and given they are losing their audience at a rate of knots, I'm not sure this can be classed as quality expenditure.
I went to their website yesterday. The headline was "What the polls are telling us in 7 charts".
And there they were. There was lots of colour, lots of lines up and down, and squiggles.
But I already knew, given I had seen the charts from the night before, that either their charts meant nothing, or if they did mean something, then the other guy's charts weren't up to much.
Or quite possibly if we did this charade for a third time, they would both be exposed as having shonky numbers.
But remember: "they are only a snapshot in time". Except given they were done at the same time, they aren't, are they?
So what are they, other than a very large waste of time and money?
Mike Hosking is a New Zealand television and radio broadcaster. He currently hosts The Mike Hosking Breakfast show on NewstalkZB on weekday mornings - where this article was sourced.
2 comments:
The fact that the polls are so close does not surprise me. Are the kids in nz being brainwashed? You saw it when David Seymour turned up to a school a few years ago and some enraged school children almost attacked him physically, while teachers looked on. Someone taught them to hate him. At uni there are compulsary te tiriti courses with made up history and various hate your whiteness courses you can attend. Society has changed. Do you walk around much in auckland city and see all the dysfunction mike? When did you last catch a train or a bus to see the types of people who are voting in the next election? People yell, don't pay for their fare and play loud music without caring that they are annoying other passengers.
Yesterday in britomart there was a group of free palestine/free nz prrotesters. Maori flags everywhere. Lots of police. Someone had chalked on a public seat " jews are racists." When I tried to rub out the chalk with ny foot, a nearby police officer told me not to. So all up I think there is a good chance labour/green/ tepartly will form the next government.
And if that happens - that will be the END of our once proud free nation.
Tribal rule, apartheid will take over.
Welcome to New Zimbabwe !!
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