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Wednesday, July 16, 2025

John MacDonald: This is one piece of Rogernomics that makes sense


How about this for an idea?

Instead of the tax people pay on the first $60,000 of their income going to the government, what if it went into a savings account to pay for healthcare and put food on the table when they retire?

It’s an idea being pushed by former finance minister Sir Roger Douglas and University of Auckland economics professor Robert MacCulloch which, they say, is needed because of the ageing population.

They reckon people could save as much as $21,000 a year, with some of the money going into a health account, some going into a superannuation account, and the rest going into a “rainy day” account.

There are some bits about this that really I like, and I’m not so sure about other aspects.

The thing I like most is that —for pretty much the first-time ever— we would have tax money ringfenced for specific things.

Whether we can describe it as tax money I’m not sure, because it would be money not going to the government but going into these individual bank accounts instead. But we’ll call it tax money.

Sir Roger and Professor MacCulloch have done the numbers and they reckon that —if the government didn’t get its hands on the tax money from the first $60,000 of everyone’s income— on average, people would end up with just over $20,000 in their account each year.

Breaking that down, they say we’d have about $9,500 going into the health bucket, just under $7,400 going into the superannuation bucket, and $4,200 going into the “rainy day” bucket. That’s each year – providing you’re working, of course.

So I like it for the ring-fencing and how we would know exactly how much we have up our sleeve.

And if you do the numbers over the course of someone’s total working life —that’s assuming that they start work at 20 and stop working at 65— the average person that Sir Roger is basing his numbers on could have about $950,000 in their account.

That’s without interest being factored in. So they could retire with more than $1 million in the bank to pay for healthcare and to live off.

And if you’re thinking we’ve got KiwiSaver, so why would we need this extra savings account? If you’re thinking that, chances are you’re well-off enough to afford KiwiSaver.

Because Professor MacCulloch is saying today that many low-income earners just can’t afford KiwiSaver and they would benefit big-time if most of their tax actually went into a savings account. Which makes sense to me.

Dig a little deeper though and Sir Roger Douglas’ old ACT Party ideals start to come through, with him saying today that this approach would give people the freedom to choose whether they get medical treatment, for example, in the public sector or the private sector.

But what if every Tom, Dick, and Harry had all this money and decided to get their hips done privately? That would be boom times for the private hospitals, but what would it mean for the public hospitals?

Possibly less government investment.

And what if a model like this was adopted and we had politicians down the track letting people use the money in these dedicated accounts to pay for first-home deposits and all that carry-on? Which has happened with KiwiSaver.

Sir Roger says he’s been banging on for ages about what he and Professor MacCulloch are calling an “economic car crash”.

They say governments over the years have chosen to ignore the looming health and welfare crisis that we’re heading into, if we haven’t reached that point already.

At the root of it is the ageing population. And they’re saying today that we just can’t keep on keeping on the way we have and the way we are.

And I agree with them. Which is why —even though I’ve got some misgivings about the impact this could have on things like government investment in the healthcare system— overall, I think it’s a brilliant idea.

John MacDonald is the Canterbury Mornings host on Newstalk ZB Christchurch. This article was first published HERE

4 comments:

Robert Bird said...

With regard to hip replacements. Offer the patients to have the operation done in India. It would cost us a lot less money. There is no waiting list for these operations in India compared to NZ. The patient would be healthier sooner. It would create competition in NZ private health care; and there prices would have to come down. Our waiting lists would go down. Great for our free trade agreement.
Otherwise I support this plan. Douglas has been advocating it for some time.

Basil Walker said...

I support these workings seen previously on Breaking Views .
Clearly this means a significant part of the 20K would be a gift from the employer. There is only approx $9,000 tax paid on the first three increments of the NZ tax system up to $60,000 income .
To gather in 20K taxation for savings would mean a top up from somewhere and that is what we should debate and understand .

Anonymous said...

Why would it matter if the government invested less into public health if people weren’t using public health? That’s a great saving without a downside. There are legitimate criticisms of this idea - the main one being what to do with beneficiaries (and how to grandfather this plan in) but saving taxpayer money on un-needed healthcare is, an odd one and seems to come from an assumption that public health = good and private health = boo late-stage capitalism.

Basil Walker said...

John , Your contribution needs discussion. However the details to try to understand Government spending are difficult because they are bureaucratatic and smart arse "accounting types " ego postulating as important with graphs etc and not basic figures in a chart.
NZ needs basic rounded numbers to ascertain that to use your taxation of your first 60K income to be placed in a saving account by IRD ( Genuinely Great) how would that be rationalised with the need for that same taxation for Government to run NZINC. We need to understand what Ministeries aside from the obvious keepers have to be abolished to sustain NZ but start the fiscal future of NZ