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Friday, August 29, 2025

Cam Slater: Finally, a Crack at the Grocery Duopoly - Willis’s Plan to Bring Down Prices


After years of Kiwis getting hammered at the checkout, Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis has stepped up with a plan to shake up the supermarket sector. She’s promising to fast-track new supermarkets into the market, aiming to crank up competition and, fingers crossed, deliver some real relief on grocery bills. This comes hot on the heels of announcements from RNZ and Stuff, where Willis laid out her blueprint to release the stranglehold held by the big two: Woolworths and Foodstuffs.

This is well overdue. The current duopoly has been a disaster for consumers, with next to no real competition driving down prices or improving service. We’ve all felt it, week after week, as food costs climb higher than the OECD average, leaving us paying more than our mates in the UK or Australia. It’s about time someone in government woke up and did something. Should have happened years ago under previous administrations that sat on their hands while the big players raked in profits.

Willis is talking a good game. She’s set to introduce legislation in November, with the goal of passing it by year’s end. The idea is to create an “express lane” for new supermarket approvals, slashing the red tape that currently drags things out for years and costs millions. Think about it: Woolworths once blew three million dollars over four years just to get one store greenlit. Under this new setup, it could all happen in under a year, with streamlined consents, standardised designs via MultiProof, and a single authority handling building approvals. The government even wants to tweak how effects on competition are weighed in the process, making it easier for new entrants to break in.

The aim? Boost competition and get better deals for shoppers. Willis reckons this could lure in international heavyweights like Aldi or Lidl, though they didn’t show up in the recent feedback round. Costco, at least, is on board, saying it’ll help their expansion here. And there are five potential domestic players eyeing the market, plus existing retailers looking to grow. Sounds promising, right?

But here’s where I get nervous. Willis keeps saying these changes “could” cut grocery prices. Could? Could? That’s not good enough. Kiwis are hurting now, not in some vague future where prices might dip if everything aligns perfectly. We need certainty, not maybes. The government is under pressure over the cost of living and hedging like this doesn’t inspire confidence. If this is going to work, it has to deliver real, measurable drops at the till, not just more options that might trickle down benefits someday.

And while we’re at it, let’s not stop at fast-tracking new stores. There needs to be a good hard look at how the duopoly treats its suppliers. We’ve heard the stories: coercive terms of trade, squeezing farmers and producers until they bleed, all to pad those corporate bottom lines. If we’re serious about fixing this mess, bust open those practices too. Force transparency, crack down on the bullying and make sure the benefits flow through the whole supply chain – not just stopping at the supermarket shelves.

Don’t get me wrong, this is a good start. Better late than never and credit to Willis for pushing ahead after that request for information earlier this year, which pulled in 24 responses highlighting the frustrations with zoning, consents and regulations. Some critics, like Labour’s Barbara Edmonds, are calling it “tinkering on the edges” that won’t drop prices overnight. Fair point, but at least it’s action, unlike the do-nothing approach we’ve seen before.

As for breaking up the duopoly outright? Willis says it’d need a proper cost-benefit analysis, with no timeline yet. Some respondents pushed for it, but she’s holding back. Maybe that’s smart, avoiding a nuclear option that could backfire. Still, if this fast-track doesn’t deliver, all bets are off.

Bottom line: Kiwis deserve a fair go at the supermarket. If this plan lives up to the hype and actually slashes prices, it’ll be a win for everyone except the fat cats who’ve had it too good for too long. Watch this space, because the proof will be in the pudding or, should I say, the grocery basket.

Cam Slater is a New Zealand-based blogger, best known for his role in Dirty Politics and publishing the Whale Oil Beef Hooked blog, which operated from 2005 until it closed in 2019. Cam blogs regularly on the GoodOil - where this article was sourced.

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