Bob Edlin: What Carl Bates says about expertise in tax policy....

....and (good grief!) the Finance Minister lacks those credentials

As one measure of the politicians’ preoccupation with tax policy in the runup to the general election, Hansard recorded the word “tax” 371 times in its record of proceedings in the House of Representatives yesterday.

But if we listen to Carl Bates, National MP for Whanganui, only some were qualified to discuss it.

Bob Edlin: Budget surprise for the banks...

Budget surprise for the banks – but Willis says she will be surprised if the “tiny” levy costs are passed on to customers

One News reports:

Finance Minister Nicola Willis says she would be “extremely surprised” if banks passed a new $200 million prudential levy announced in Budget 2026 onto their customers, though Cabinet has not yet decided what action it would take if they did.

Bob Edlin: What state services can learn from Fonterra......

What state services can learn from Fonterra: bigger isn’t always better and merging might not make us better off

Streamlining is one thing. Merging is another.

Finance Minister Nicola Willis drew attention to this when discussing the Government’s public-sector policy objectives yesterday:

Ani O'Brien: The Public Service isn’t a six-figure welfare scheme

Some super quick thoughts on the public service reforms

The reaction to Nicola Willis’ pre-Budget speech today went full throttle before she had even delivered it. The proposals were not especially radical, but you would not know this if you interacted with any media today. It was astounding how quickly large sections of New Zealand’s political and media class moved to attack the measures intended to save money and make our government more efficient. The arguments for consolidating our public service and tightening our belts were shut down before they could even properly be debated.

Damien Grant: New Zealand deserves better than Nicola Willis’ plan

It is four sleeps to Christmas. A time of make believe where we embrace the wonder of Santa Claus to delight children and ourselves.

Make believe is a powerful element of the human condition. The willingness to embrace an illusion is a pre-requisite to enjoy a movie, magic show or a marriage.

Kerre Woodham: The Finance Minister is charting a tough course

We're going to start this morning with the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update, which was actually the Three-quarter Year Economic and Fiscal Update. It delivered news we all expected, and that is that we're getting there as a country. It's just taking longer than we thought.

Treasury's half-year update, published on Tuesday, predicted a return to surplus in 2029/30, a year later than it forecasted in May. Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she'd continue to aim for 2028/29 and said we're on target to return the books to surplus faster than they will in Australia, the UK, Canada, and many other advanced economies, while maintaining a prudent debt position.

David Farrar: Defending Nicola, and critiquing her

Media have reported that there may be a debate between Nicola Willis and Ruth Richardson over fiscal policy. I thought it would be useful to lay out what I see as the key fiscal problem, and put context around it.

Now I’m not unbiased here. Nicola I regard as a long standing friend. We were opposition staffer colleagues together over 20 years ago. She is one of the most awesome and competent people I know. I also admire how she has managed to be an amazing mother to four young kids, while also having a successful career at senior levels in business and politics.

Bob Edlin: Luxon and the art of saying plenty without answering questions

The PM had a simple question to answer: is the Government aiming for house prices to appreciate – or to decline?

But to answer it at Question Time in Parliament yesterday, Christopher Luxon would have to say that either he had got his Government’s policy intentions wrong – or his Housing Minister had.

Labour Leader Chris Hipkins put him on the spot by asking:

Bob Edlin: The OCR is trimmed and Govt politicians are cheered....

The OCR is trimmed and Govt politicians are cheered – but savers won’t necessarily be whooping

PoO first heard the news from RNZ: the Reserve Bank had cut the official cash rate to its lowest level in three years – by 25 basis points to 2.25 per cent – to support economic recovery.

That led us to check the announcement on the RBNZ website. This expressed confidence that inflation would ease from where it now sits, at the top of the 1 – 3 per cent target band for monetary policy:

Bob Edlin: The flight of 72,000 Kiwis.....

The flight of 72,000 Kiwis – they must be blind, because they can’t see that NZ is “the best place to be”

The Government’s gurgling about fiscal discipline and growth is countered by an increasing public debt, the rising cost of living and significant job losses.

An aging population is putting increasing pressure on New Zealand Superannuation and healthcare costs, which threatens to result in higher taxes or increased debt in the future.

DTNZ: Government pours $1.2m into cow gadget to ‘fix climate’

The Government has announced a $1.2 million investment in a Canterbury start-up’s wearable device for cows, claiming it could slash nitrous oxide emissions by 95% and nitrate leaching by 93%.

Ministers Nicola Willis and Shane Reti praised the invention as proof of Kiwi ingenuity and a step toward “low-emissions farming.”

Bob Edlin: Willis says she has no ambition to be PM

Willis says she has no ambition to be PM – but why not put the question to others with better Mood of the Boardroom rankings?

Herald editor-in-chief Murray Kirkness obviously went fishing for a headline-grabbing declaration from the Minister of Finance that she wants Christopher’s Luxon’s job.

Nicola Willis was too fly for that.

But when you ask questions like those asked by Kirkness, there will be a story – even if it’s a denial.

Bob Edlin: Willis (bruised by business survey)....

Willis (bruised by business survey) draws media attention to RBNZ appointment and away from debt projection

It was a day of highs and lows for Finance Minister Nicola Willis, starting with the lows.

In the morning, we were learning that she and the PM have been ranked among the least impressive Cabinet ministers in the latest Mood of the Boardroom survey.

Peter Dunne: Government arrogance

Governments rarely lose office because their policies are unpopular or not working. Far more often they are defeated because they have become arrogant and contemptuously dismissive of those promoting different views to theirs.

Usually, this trend becomes pronounced during a government's second or third term, but there are already emerging signs of increasing arrogance and intolerance from the current government, barely two-thirds into its first term. This week alone there have been three such displays of the government's mounting arrogance and disregard for contrary views.

Ani O'Brien: Nicola Willis is no Ruth Richardson and that’s the problem

Nicola Willis promised discipline. She promised to rein in spending, shrink the bloated public service, and put New Zealand’s economy “back on track” after Labour’s disastrous run. Instead, she has drifted. Spending remains high, the bureaucracy is still bloated, and taxpayers see little sign of the tough decisions we were promised.

The result? Labour, of all parties, is polling neck and neck with National, less than 13 months out from the election. That should be a political impossibility, given the wreckage they left behind. But it speaks to the central failure of National and its Finance Minister. Voters expected change, and what they got instead was continuity.

Bob Edlin: The forecasters got it wrong, when looking into the past.....

The forecasters got it wrong, when looking into the past – but Willis is confident they are right to be bullish about future GDP

Finance Minister Nicola Willis presumably had hoped to brace Parliamentarians – and the public – for politically discomforting economic news from StatsNZ today.

David Farrar: Sensible Supermarket strategy

Nicola Willis has announced some significant changes to encourage a third supermarket chain. They are:

Michael Reddell: Oh, what a tangled web

Oh, what a tangled web we weave, When first we practice to deceive - from Marmion, by Sir Walter Scott.

Those were the words that sprang to mind on Friday evening when I heard the news that Neil Quigley had finally resigned as board chair (and board member) of the Reserve Bank. There had been more than enough in his conduct over recent years, and in what he tolerated from Orr, that Quigley should have gone long ago – and certainly shouldn’t have been reappointed by Willis last June – but had it not been for the repeated and sustained efforts of mislead the public over the circumstances of Orr’s departure no doubt he’d have seen out his term (which expired 30 June 2026).

Bob Edlin: It’s a monumental clanger....

It’s a monumental clanger – you repair the bells (for $10 million), but keep them mute by firing the carillonist

The PoO team was astonished to read the headline on an NZR report that signalled news of a governmental clanger:

Cam Slater: Finally, a Crack at the Grocery Duopoly - Willis’s Plan to Bring Down Prices

After years of Kiwis getting hammered at the checkout, Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis has stepped up with a plan to shake up the supermarket sector. She’s promising to fast-track new supermarkets into the market, aiming to crank up competition and, fingers crossed, deliver some real relief on grocery bills. This comes hot on the heels of announcements from RNZ and Stuff, where Willis laid out her blueprint to release the stranglehold held by the big two: Woolworths and Foodstuffs.