Opinion polls from New Zealand rarely make news in Australia, unless they’re particularly notable and they particularly appeal to the local legacy media. When Jacinda Ardern was riding high in the polls, it was exactly the sort of stuff to warm an Australian legacy media desperate to console themselves over the durability of the then-coalition government here. Ardern’s plummet from poll grace, on the other hand, was not something they chose to dwell on.
But a NZ National government sliding in the polls? You can bet they’re all over that like flies on the proverbial.
The latest New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll makes for remarkable reading. If an election were held tomorrow, the country might have a hung parliament.
To make matters worse for Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, his net favourability rating now stands at minus-12 per cent, just 18 months into his premiership. This is what prime ministers usually see after years in office, not in their first term.
More to the point, they always have a honeymoon period initially, where their poll numbers rise from the election result.
Consider New Zealand’s previous prime ministers. Helen Clark entered office in 1999 with lukewarm support, but polling showed a 13-point jump in her preferred prime minister rating within months. John Key’s support climbed from 40 to 51 per cent. Jacinda Ardern saw a 10-point rise.
But not Luxon.
Luxon’s numbers tell a different story. His favourability rating has remained flat around 20-25 per cent, with no honeymoon bump, and far below the 40 per cent or 50 per cent enjoyed by other recent first-term PMs.
Partly this is a consequence of a feral media. As they did with former Australian PM Tony Abbott, and then in spades with US President Donald Trump, the media have chosen a side and they’re cheer-squadding it for all their worth. No matter that they’re at odds with a majority of voters. It didn’t help that the previous government was literally funding the dying legacy media.
Many journalists [are] still pining for the Ardern era and treating the election result as if voters had chosen incorrectly. With 81 per cent of New Zealand journalists identifying as left of centre, Luxon faces a fundamentally different environment from other democracies. Unlike Australia, New Zealand has no significant right-leaning outlets to provide alternative perspectives.
But, like Tony Abbott, Luxon is too often his own worst enemy. While Abbott was a brilliant opposition leader, he flunked it when in government. Most notably, he thought he could get away with breaking key election promises, and he also, unlike Donald Trump’s second presidency, fell into the trap of playing by the legacy media’s rules.
Luxon is also guilty of the latter, but mostly just of being a tin-eared twit.
During the election campaign, his claim to spend only $60 a week on groceries was widely mocked. And when a minister resigned earlier this year, Luxon spent days evading questions about his handling of the affair, turning a one-day story into a week-long focus.
Before a trade mission to Japan, he dismissed previous government delegations as “C-list”, implying they were second-rate. This backfired when critics noted his delegation included many of the same companies.
Luxon is, like former Australian PM Scott Morrison, a former businessman. As is Donald Trump, of course. But, where Trump has solid policies and sticks by them no matter the legacy media meltdowns, Morrison and Luxon both treat every problem as essentially an exercise in spin rather than policy.
A recent controversy over butter prices illustrates the government’s political challenges. With dairy prices soaring worldwide, Willis summoned Fonterra CEO Miles Hurrell to parliament for what she promoted as a tough questioning session about high domestic prices.
The heavily publicised meeting was meant to show the government taking action on cost-of-living pressures. In reality, it was political theatre that, unsurprisingly, had no effect on butter prices. The handling of the issue caused concern among many New Zealand business leaders, who regarded it as a populist intervention.
But unlike his Australian counterparts, Luxon doesn’t seem to have to worry about checking his back for knives. A string of PMs, from Rudd to Gillard on the left and Abbott then Turnbull on the right, were hastily stabbed by their colleagues when opinion polls turned.
New Zealand operates differently. The last prime minister removed by their party was Jim Bolger in 1997, after seven years in office. Yet Jenny Shipley’s coup did not establish a precedent. New Zealand maintains stronger Westminster conventions about leadership stability.
Even to the clear detriment of the government, it seems. Standing steadfast behind the captain as he steers unerringly to the rocks may be loyal, but it’s also suicidal.
Lushington describes himself as Punk rock philosopher. Liberalist contrarian. Grumpy old bastard. This article was first published HERE
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