Steven Gaskell: Kharg Island - The Strategic Choke Point That Could Break Iran’s Regime

For decades, American military planners have deliberately avoided targeting or seizing Kharg Island. The reason was simple: the island is the beating heart of Iran’s oil economy. Roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports pass through its terminals, meaning any disruption risks sending shockwaves through global energy markets and triggering a wider regional war.

But by March 2026, reports suggest the Trump administration has begun openly discussing the possibility of seizing the island as a strategic option. The logic is brutally straightforward. Rather than attempting an expensive and politically unpopular ground invasion of Iran, the United States could instead target the regime’s financial lifeline. Shut down Kharg Island, and Tehran loses the overwhelming majority of its oil export revenue almost overnight.

Of course, such an operation would not be simple. Before any landing could occur, American forces would have to clear the surrounding air and sea lanes of Iranian anti ship missiles, drones, naval mines and fast attack craft operated by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It would likely require sustained strikes on missile batteries along Iran’s southern coast, suppression of drone launch sites, and naval dominance in the northern Persian Gulf. Only then could U.S. forces move to neutralise or occupy the export terminals.

The strategic goal would be economic strangulation rather than occupation. With its oil exports halted, Iran would quickly face a severe shortage of hard currency, fuel and government revenue. A regime already under sanctions and internal pressure could find itself unable to fund its military apparatus or its network of regional proxies.

Yet the hardest question would come after the pressure works. Starving a regime of money may weaken it, but it does not automatically produce a stable successor. If the current leadership in Iran collapses, a political vacuum could quickly emerge. The fragmented opposition, divided between exiles, reformists, monarchists and various political factions, has yet to present a unified alternative capable of governing a country of more than 80 million people.

That reality is why Kharg Island has remained a strategic option rather than an executed plan for decades. Destroying or seizing the economic lifeline of a hostile regime might be militarily feasible. The far more difficult task is ensuring that what comes next is not chaos, civil war, or an even more dangerous power vacuum in the heart of the Middle East.

Steven is an entrepreneur and an ex RNZN diver who likes travelling, renovating houses, Swiss Watches, history, chocolate art and art deco.