I don’t enjoy saying this because personally I like Chris Luxon and have a fair amount of respect for him. But I think the chances are now very high that this is going to happen before the election. He is going to lose the leadership and perhaps the only real choice National MPs now have is how messy they allow this to become.
I’ll explain why I think he loses the leadership — and I think it’s simple maths.
National’s polling is really poor. It’s sub-30 in multiple polls. You can’t write those off as rogue results. The numbers are consistently bad and at that level the party is on track to lose around 11 MPs in November. Those 11 MPs do not want to lose their jobs and within that group are the people now agitating for a change of leadership.
For that agitation to stop, National’s polling would need to lift enough to save at least some of those MPs’ seats.
So how does the polling improve? The economy would have to improve. And is that going to happen between now and November? No, it’s not.
In fact, the economy is more likely to come under further pressure, particularly because of the situation in Iran and rising fuel costs. The most likely scenario is that the economy gets worse, National’s polling deteriorates further, and those 11 MPs — and potentially more — lose their jobs at the election.
Meanwhile, the destabilising campaign we saw in the Herald today continues. Someone is deliberately and repeatedly planting stories in the media. That won’t stop. It will continue to drive the polls down and make Luxon look increasingly like a lame-duck Prime Minister.
So if we assume the economy doesn’t improve, the polling doesn’t improve and the destabilising continues, then the most likely outcome is this: about three months out from the election, in the depths of winter, the National Party loses its nerve and rolls Chris Luxon in a desperate attempt to save the furniture.
I see no realistic alternative to that outcome.
That’s scenario one: hope and pray. And yes, that is technically a strategy — maybe something miraculous happens, the way COVID saved Jacinda Ardern in 2020. But that’s hope-and-prayer stuff.
Scenario two is that they pull the pin. They replace Chris Luxon with someone else and call an early election, allowing that person to seek a mandate while still enjoying a honeymoon period — and before winter and the Iran-related pressures make voters even more miserable than they already are.
If I were in the National caucus, I’d be opting for the second scenario. Because the polling is now so consistently bad that a leadership change is likely to happen anyway before the election. They can’t avoid it — they can only choose when it happens and how messy they let it get.
Heather du Plessis-Allan is a journalist and commentator who hosts Newstalk ZB's Drive show. This article was sourced from Newstalk ZB.
12 comments:
HdPA. The PM shafted the Treaty Principle Bill, supported Net Zero and Paris Accord , allowed the Seabed and Foreshore legislation to continue , supported Tikanga et al and Maori vernacular in government legislation .
It was self annihilation by Mr Luxon.
The NZ voters .will return the Coalition just with a different leader .
No need to pull your hair out with anxiety .
Scenario 3. The National party commits to destroying the Maori invasion of all government departments and institutions, and just maybe he keeps his job.
Thing is its not just him, its the party as a whole.
Keeping the msm fed.
Bang on, Basil Walker. National and Luxon cannot be trusted anymore to reverse the Maorification agenda and the drift towards separatism. 2.5 years and we have MBIE requiring staff to attend Maori programs to retain their jobs and get promotions. Let’s not mention the army with its push to bring in paganism. All under the nose of Luxon and National.
Have to agree with scenario 3 with one proviso, not a commitment to slapping down the Maori Elite takeover but doing it right now, not after the election. Luxon and National have squandered two years plus in which they could have sorted this apartheid stupidity. Lots of empty suits arrogantly refusing to recognise the threat to NZ that co-governance, etc. poses.
The three scenarios nicely put by the first two commentators. Luxon has, indeed, brought it on himself listening too much to his mentor, John Key. The economy is bad enough, but people truly have had a gutsful of maorification. We all should be equal - period! Which means (since they don't seem to understand), no automatic separate representation, no special privileges and tax rates, and no dibs on those resources that are for the benefit of everyone.
What NZ and most democratic countries need is a leader and not a follower. By follower, I mean someone who follows polls and focus groups. There are issues other than those involving Maori. One is climate change alarmism. Another is men who claim to be women. Luxon should look across the ditch at Pauline Hanson.
Basil Walker has my vote.
The great majority of former Nat Party supporters are probably well aware of the reason for the Party’s obvious decline. And it also seems certain that the Party will continue to eschew any counter action to arrest their exciting collapse. What a conundrum for the average voter! Vote left, get catastrophic incompetence. Vote right, get deliberate national suicide. (Pardon the pun.)
Spend October overseas, if you can afford it, in splendid isolation from the futility of it all.
I think the voters who give priority to 'Maorification' and other culture wars issues have already gone elsewhere. One possibility is that some Nat voters just n't vote - just as happened with some Labour voters in 2023. Others will obviously shift to Labour. But can't see that an early election is likely unless the change happens soon. Now the election date is set, I can't see that people will vote Nats in (say) Sept but not in November. And the whole thing will be disruptive to a lot of people. Ardern postponed the 2020 election, but she adduced the pandemic in that case.
Shane Jones for PM. He is eloquent, masculine, and a man of the people. He’s been around for a while so knows the ins and outs. We are blessed to have such a talisman among the current alumni.
Post a Comment
Thank you for joining the discussion. Breaking Views welcomes respectful contributions that enrich the debate. Please ensure your comments are not defamatory, derogatory or disruptive. We appreciate your cooperation.