Guest Post: Immigration

A complex challenge for New Zealand’s future

Guest Post by ML Kearney on No Minister

• Introduction

Pre- the 2026 election , discussion has already begun on Superannuation reform and its links to Welfare overhaul ( both thorny subjects where action is overdue ) .

Both areas link to immigration which is affected by broader – including global – trends and factors.

This presentation focuses on Immigration itself and its critical implications for NZ’s future

• Immigration today

Let’s start with a recent announcement by the NZ First party that profound reform of immigration would be a priority issue in its election manifesto.

NZF leader, Winston Peters, outlined a 14 – point plan for future action covering multiples issues such as:

mandatory waiting time for citizenship and for permanent residency

birthright citizenship for children born to immigrant parents

stricter time limits for non – citizens to access welfare

a 2- year amnesty for overstayers to self -report and regularize their status.

In addition:

. NZF would seek the Immigration portfolio in a new government post – 2026;

.an annual referendum would permit the NZ public to determine the cap on residential visas with suggested figure of 20.000 per year.

( To illustrate the need for reform , Minister Peters cited 2024 when 26.400 residential visas were issued . This resulted in the actual arrival of 48.500 persons – the visa applicant and family members . )

In articulating these reforms, NZ First is clearly stating the linkages amongst 3 areas:

.a reset for NZ immigration

. the country’s current demographic context

. global trends in relation to the movement of people.

• Immigration and NZ’s Development

First, a snapshot of NZ’s demographic situation:

. the official population at September 2026 is close to 5.3 million.

.by 2030, this will likely reach over 6 million

. I million or more will live overseas ( notably young and professional NZers)

.by 2050, some 30% of the population will be aged over 80. (Source: Ungor, M. 2017 in Spoonley)

.in 2026, 2.56 million NZers are women ( slightly over 50% and outnumbering men) with a median age of 38.

.the population will be clustered around Auckland

.worker shortages are predicted so migration will be essential for economic growth.

(Source: Paul Spoonley 2020. The New New Zealand, Facing demographic disruption.)

Here, several factors converge : 

i.  NZ has an ageing population which means increased health care in the coming decades. Staffing this area will be a priority. As well, migrant labour will be necessary in all sectors – professional, blue collar workers and even in agriculture.

i. The present Superannuation model is unsustainable long term . Once there were 7 workers for every Superannuitant . Currently this is 4 to 1 with projections of 2 to 1 unless the work force increases significantly. Even if NZ’s economic productivity were to increase sharply, a bigger population – notably young people and workers – will be essential to sustain this growth.

i. NZ’s birthrate is stagnating so its population is not replacing itself without migration. 2.1 births per female is the indictor of a stable population without migration. 37 out of 38 OECD countries record lower average birth rates . Only Israel and Mexico come closer to sustaining their populations while the Republic of Korea and Chile are the worst performers. (Source: OECD 2025. The Decline of Fertility Rates in OECD Countries 1950-2025). In comparison, Africa has the fastest growing population with many countries registering birth rates of 4 and 5 per female.

i. Young NZ professionals are leaving for better opportunities elsewhere – and because the volatile racial situation deters their future plans.

i. Ethnic diversity is increasing. People from over 150 countries have immigrated to New Zealand. The 2026 population of Auckland, as the biggest city, is 1.4 million with European, Asian , Pacifika and Maori as the 4 predominant groups. Nation-wide, the picture is changing rapidly as evidenced by official statistics from 2013 and projections for 2038 :

European 74.6 % to 65.5%

Asian 12% to 22%

Maori 15. 6% to 18.4%

Pacifika 7.8% to 10.2 %

Middle East, Latin America, Africa: 1.2% to 3%.

This diversity covers culture, language, religion and sexual orientation . NZ ‘s multi-culturalism has major implications for population growth, national identity, social values and commitment to citizenship in order to foster cohesion rather than fragmentation.

Change is real:

.in 2025, European babies were in the minority of all NZ births according to economist Shamubeel Eaqub.

.over the past 50 years, the superior status of the Maori people and their culture has moved centre stage and – today – has become increasingly controversial.

• Global trends regarding the movement of peoples

Finally , we look at a few global statistics and trends which will certainly influence demographic issues in the coming decades.

• The global population is 8.3 billion and rising. The world has learned how to weaponize people – and the West has lost the battle for the quality of life and opportunity.

• India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous country with 1.4 billion – Prime Minister Modi intends to fully capitalize on this situation. Just as China established diaspora in selected countries, India will do the same. Hence, immigration features in the NZ- India Free Trade Agreement – much to the displeasure of NZ First.

• Africa is honing its talents to raise its profile in the world market. The African population is nearly 2 billion ( some 19% of the world’s number) and young (median age 19-20 ). There is a growing group of young, educated, multi-lingual and entrepreneurial Africans is already working locally and globally. Africa illustrates the force of population numbers.

• English as the global lingua franca – followed by French ( now being modernized by France for this reason) . So-called colonized counties have benefited enormously from competence in global languages ( despite political efforts to marginalize these).

• Certain international measures affecting population require careful management by governments:

i. The 2016 UN New York Declaration for Refugees and Migrants and the 2018 UN Global Compact for safe, orderly and regular migration (GCM) are both non-legally binding, respect the sovereignty of states, and encourage collaboration to manage migration safely in the optimal manner. New Zealand has cautiously supported these initiatives.

However, the 2010 UNDRIP Declaration (the rights of indigenous peoples) – though

not legally binding – has caused serious problems for NZ when the Labour/Ardern government ( 2020-23) moved towards legislating radical constitutional change without public consent. Concern is repeated with the NZ-India FTA.

i. The WEF – led Globalist ideology remains a real threat to the autonomy of national states. Espoused by the World Economic Forum (WEF), globalism would cede power to political, economic and technological elites. The free movement of people is encouraged . Sovereign state-controlled borders would be removed. Current demographic crises – illegal migrants entering the UK or the invasion of Ceuta ( a Spanish city on the Morocco Coast) by African civilians – are grave problems – but these must be resolved by elected governments not faceless technocrats.

 

Conclusion.

Today, immigration is a major global issue with national implications – New Zealand cannot escape its impact.