Chris Trotter: Election 2026 - when the tail is growing large enough to wag the ideological dog

From the perspective of New Zealand’s two largest parties, the first MMP election in 1996 was also the worst.

Between them, National and Labour accounted for just 62.06% of the popular vote. Pundits opined that this historically low two-party share reflected in more-or-less equal measure the novelty of the new electoral system and a substantial minority of the electorate’s emphatic rejection of politics as usual.

Peter Williams: Splitting your vote - It’s the only way

The latest 1News poll tells us what we’ve known for a while. National can only get back to power through its electorate MPs

The arrogance of the National Party is reaching peak level nonsense. There was the still revered former leader John Key at the campaign launch telling the faithful that anything other than “two ticks National” could result in cabinet ministers from parties other than National.

Well blow me down with a feather. Isn’t that the whole point of a coalition government?

Paul Moon: ‘We’ll slaughter the bastards’.....

....how Bob Jones and the New Zealand Party changed politics in 1984

With New Zealand’s 11th election under the MMP proportional system due in November, it’s easy to take the influence of minor parties for granted. But just over 40 years ago, things were very different.

In 1984, with the conservative National government of Robert Muldoon seeking a fourth term, the major obstacle for any opposition party was the first-past-the-post electoral system itself.

Anglo Saxon: MMP voting 101 in just 10 minutes

Let me change your mind about the New Zealand Election 2026 

 Anglo Saxon explains election overhangs and tactical voting (electorate vote / party vote)

 

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Dr Oliver Hartwich: Tactical voting could sink MMP

At its campaign launch in Gisborne on Sunday, Te Pāti Māori asked its supporters for something no party had requested so openly before: candidate votes for the party, party votes for its allies on the left.

The request rests on MMP’s overhang rule. A party that wins more electorates than its party vote covers keeps them all, and Parliament grows.

Dr Oliver Hartwich: Unravelling MMP - How the 2026 election could break the voting system from two sides

At its campaign launch in Gisborne on Sunday, Te Pāti Māori told its supporters to split their votes: candidate votes for the party, party votes for its allies on the left. A new research note by The New Zealand Initiative warns this call could set off a chain of tactical voting that kills MMP.

Ani O'Brien: National's list and the quirks of MMP

National needs more votes, not a new electoral system

There are few surprises to be found in National’s list rankings for the election. Christopher Luxon is first, obviously. Then Nicola Willis, then Chris Bishop retains 3rd despite months of leadership gossip, and Simeon Brown and Erica Stanford round out the top 5. Paul Goldsmith follows at 6 and Gerry Brownlee has been hauled up from 14th at the last election to 9th. Nancy Lu is perhaps the most interesting promotion at 16th. And Melissa Lee, meanwhile, has fallen to 30th, which is a message to pack a lunch and start doorknocking.

Richard Shaw: Coalition leadership is hard. Luxon’s ‘nuclear option’ of electoral reform is not the answer

Much to everyone’s surprise – including, it seems, his National Party colleagues – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has committed to offering voters the chance to revisit their electoral system. Again.

Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised – National has form when it comes to constitutional change.

Peter Dunne: Opportunity Party Poaching National Voters

Christopher Luxon's ruling out any possibility of National working with the Opportunity Party after the election is not nearly as emphatic as it sounds.

This time three years ago Luxon was saying his party's strong preference was not to have to work with New Zealand First after the 2023 election, only to end up going into coalition together a couple of months later. In a similar vein, ACT's David Seymour originally specifically ruled out ever sitting around the Cabinet table with New Zealand First Ministers, only to join the post-election coalition because of the perceived greater good of keeping Labour out of office.

Kerre Woodham: What alternatives do we have to capitalism and MMP?

The fact that life is a bit of a grind for many people, and has been for some time, means we start to question the natural order of things. When you can pay your bills, have time to spend doing what you enjoy with the people you love, when there aren't glaring inequities, when the failure of the present system and the people who run it aren't up in your face, when you don't see homeless people and beggars and violence, then everything's good. You accept the status quo; things are chugging along nicely. Democracy, capitalism, everybody's getting their fair share, everything's fine.

Mike's Minute: Is National a victim of success?

Here is an irony for you.

Could it be that the Prime Minister, the one so disliked by the media, is actually so good at his job that his numbers are a result of his excellence?

The pollster David Farrar has broken down the NZ First poll numbers this week.

Mike's Minute: More MP's? What on Earth are they thinking?

For a group that normally seems to nail ideas and present them well, the New Zealand Initiative this week went off-piste with their "MMP After 30 Years" report.

Smaller cabinet - good idea.

Get rid of the overhang - good idea!

But more MP's? What on Earth are they thinking?

Nick Clark: MMP After 30 Years - Time for Electoral Reform?

New Zealand's three-year parliamentary term is too short for effective government and the country needs more MPs to keep politicians accessible to voters.

“MMP has delivered fairer and more representative parliaments, but it’s time for an upgrade,” says Nick Clark, Senior Fellow at The New Zealand Initiative and author of our report examining 30 years of MMP in New Zealand.

Ryan Bridge: We need to break away from coalition governments

Yesterday was MMP in action.

It was exhibit A of a coalition government.

Without a single party with a clear mandate, you end up with piecemeal positions. You get a report done then you cherry pick which options are palatable to everybody and effective for nobody.

David Farrar: How unproportional might the next Parliament be?

MMP is meant to deliver a proportional Parliament. That is how it is designed, and how it was sold.

There is one aspect to it though that can make Parliaments unproportional. It is overhang seats – when a party wins more electorates than their share of the party vote would entitle them to.

Kerre Woodham: MMP - does it need tweaking?

Politicians rely on voters having short memories. They all do it.

Politicians and governments get swept out of power, they fester away on the opposition benches, and then a year before the next election, they make sweeping statements and promises about what they'll do if voters have the good sense to put them in.

Centrist: MMP’s weird rule could hand an extra seat to Labour

A by-election in Tāmaki Makaurau could lead to Labour gaining an extra seat in Parliament, not by winning more votes, but because of a strange rule in New Zealand’s MMP system.

JC: MMP Brought About the MP

If they can’t deal with reality then they are of little use when it comes to running the country and they are more of a hindrance than a help. We don’t need their war dance theatrics and we don’t need their insults.

One of the reasons Kiwis voted for MMP was because they felt the First Past the Post system resulted in a parliament that was not reflective of how they voted. The door was shut on the smaller parties that secured a reasonable amount of support, meaning those who voted for them were not represented. The introduction of MMP was designed to overcome this problem.

Te Pāti Māori Are Out To Sabotage MMP

Michael Laws, on The Platform, explains how Te Pati Maori rort the MMP voting system.

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Professor Richard Shaw: With so many parties ‘ruling out’ working with other parties, is MMP losing its way?

There has been a lot of “ruling out” going on in New Zealand politics lately. In the most recent outbreak, both the incoming and outgoing deputy prime ministers, ACT’s David Seymour and NZ First’s Winston Peters, ruled out ever working with the Labour Party.

Seymour has also advised Labour to rule out working with Te Pāti Māori. Labour leader Chris Hipkins has engaged in some ruling out of his own, indicating he won’t work with Winston Peters again. Before the last election, National’s Christopher Luxon ruled out working with Te Pāti Māori.