Our September Taxpayers’ Union–Curia Poll has landed, and it is a pretty brutal set of numbers for Labour.
National is on 29.0 percent
Labour 25.9 percent
The Greens 13.9 percent
ACT 10.5 percent
New Zealand First 8.4 percent
Te Pāti Māori 2.0 percent.
Opportunity has fallen back below the 5 percent threshold to 4.5 percent
Opportunity has fallen back below the 5 percent threshold to 4.5 percent
On these numbers, compared to last month, National loses one seat to 39, while Labour drops one to 35. The Greens gain five to 18, and ACT also gains five to 14. New Zealand First drops one to 11, while Te Pāti Māori gains one to 3.
The big casualty is Opportunity, which goes from 8 projected seats to none at all.....The full poll and more can be read HERE
10 comments:
As a betting man, I would wager on TOP not making the 5% mark. People use polls to wag their fingers at the parties in power but often go back to their usual voting patterns come the big day. And with TOP we have a flash in the pan that at first grabs a lot of attention and then slides into the shadows when the novelty has worn off.
There is a bigger play if the overhang is considered.
splitting the left vote between labour greens and TOP is likely a dream come true for the coalition but less so for National.
There is a real chance that National could get 46 seats and still only have 29% of the vote.
In a funny twist, if TOP get 5% the National overhang could be bigger by the equivalent of 2.5% or there abouts. That's 3 extra seats but all are electorate seats.
For the first time, the right should they choose to have two votes and if people who are on the right understand this National may end up with a party vote at 25%.
Think about that and the right tend to be brighter so will understand it much quicker.
The Greens' promise of state-run supermarkets (imagine the pilfering and corruption as in the USSR and maybe many ''Maori'' (iwi) run as ''partners'') will pilfer votes from TOP and Labour. The Greens and TOP and TPM will be trying to outdo each other.
Labour getting precipitously close to being below 25% which was when Andrew Little stepped aside. Too late for Labour to do anything with Hipkins but it’s clear that he has very little credibility left with non die hard Labour voters.
Hipkins’ myocarditis denial & subsequent revelation that he knew of the risk but chose to hide it from teenagers and their parents render him totally untrustworthy.
Meanwhile, National looks increasingly Labour Lite with Luxon lost in woke space.
It’s illegal to bet on elections in New Zealand. Barend in the wrong here.
“TOP admits Land Tax won’t fly
No LT means no funds for UBI.
A policy without those two planks
Means TOP are just a bunch of wonks.”
One of Shakespeare’s better sonnets I think
Technically, Anon 1012 is correct. However, I can't see DIA coming for me for saying, "As a betting man, I would wager....." as I am neither offering nor accepting a bet.
Just for interest, Sportsbest in Aus is offering the shortest odds on Labour winning the election.
Writing in today’s Stuff, Columnist Joel Maxwell expands a bit more with his thoughts on the reasons behind the respective party poor performances in the latest opinion polks.
But having decided to pontificate about the reasons behind individual career politician’s ability to survive while others don’t, he himself must be careful of misjudging the reason behind that survival.
For example - In his haste to portray Winston Peters as a second rate party hopper, he fails to acknowledge the real reasons behind the Foreign Ministers unique ability to surf in on the the latest incoming tide.
It has everything to do with timing and how to seize the moment when a political flash point has caught the attention of significant numbers of voters who might otherwise have never.
considered.casting their vote in his direction.
Some would say that, unlike pakeha politicians who fill the ranks of other right wing parties, Winston, being Maori and proud of it, can say what he likes on race based issues and get away with it.
While that may be partially true, - as a long term right wing party supporter, I personally believe that Winston’s greatest strength has always been in his ability to fill the roles in the cabinet he has chosen to join with distinction.
It is notable that Winston’s record as a senior Cabinet Minister or even Deputy Prime Minister is without peer.
You only have to look at his numerous stints in those roles dealing with Foreign Heads of State across the globe.
In virtually all cases when asked to deal with delicate issues, either at home or abroad, he has handled his responsibilities as well as any other during many years of his long career.
Sure his tendency to regard election-night negotiations as something people with less talent should leave alone is really only a reflection that high stakes poker is not a game for beginners. It is however, obviously something other party leaders desperately hoping to cross the 5% threshold should take into account when contemplating what they might do when confronted with the keys to a future that could determine what life might be like on either side of the house for the next three years.
Winston’s record of success in these election night negotiations and his performances representing this country at international forums in the years following is beyond compare.
But here’s the thing. It is his ability demonstrated in those roles that suggest to me that we could do worse if his long career was capped after the election with appointment as this Country’s next Prime Minister. And for good measure, with David Seymour as his Deputy, l could die a happy man
How about that pairing Joel - that team would return this country to what it is capable of becoming .
But like all the other activist journalists here in Godzone,, you won’t support such a coalition because to do so would require vision and that is something the left wing parties don’t have.
Their stable diet is large dollops of the grievance industry which is hardly a ration for survival - let alone providing the inspirational basis for a.a trip to the promised land.
Well Clive, assuming, as you seem to do, that the election produces something along the lines of the present combination of parties, your suggestion of Peters being P M and Seymour being his deputy would have to be an absolute non-starter. So, the bulk of the would-be government MPs would accept someone as P M who is not answerable to them, was originally brought into government by the National Party, but walked away from it causing a by-election, has never been able to keep a constituency, and is now a list M P, like his entire caucus. Remember, too, that he denied in 2017 Bill English a well-earned shot at P M in favour or Ardern. Such an arrangement would just put the bulk of the government MPs on the hind teat. It couldn’t work.
My article was in defence of Winston Peters’s contribution to the Nation’s governments over his long tenure.serving in various cabinets.
I made no attempt to excuse his election night antics which clearly proved rewarding in a career based on survival but simply observed that his service to this country in a number of Cabinet level roles suggests we should be greatful for his contribution.
While l have always thought Sir Bill English deserved better, at least he was knighted for his services even though, his demise was more to do with Prime Ministers leaving before they were defeated than his personal failure as a politician .Sir Jack Marshall, Mike Moore and Chris Hipkins - to name a few who suffered similarly.
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