Our September Taxpayers’ Union–Curia Poll has landed, and it is a pretty brutal set of numbers for Labour.
National is on 29.0 percent
Labour 25.9 percent
The Greens 13.9 percent
ACT 10.5 percent
New Zealand First 8.4 percent
Te Pāti Māori 2.0 percent.
Opportunity has fallen back below the 5 percent threshold to 4.5 percent
Opportunity has fallen back below the 5 percent threshold to 4.5 percent
On these numbers, compared to last month, National loses one seat to 39, while Labour drops one to 35. The Greens gain five to 18, and ACT also gains five to 14. New Zealand First drops one to 11, while Te Pāti Māori gains one to 3.
The big casualty is Opportunity, which goes from 8 projected seats to none at all.....The full poll and more can be read HERE
2 comments:
As a betting man, I would wager on TOP not making the 5% mark. People use polls to wag their fingers at the parties in power but often go back to their usual voting patterns come the big day. And with TOP we have a flash in the pan that at first grabs a lot of attention and then slides into the shadows when the novelty has worn off.
There is a bigger play if the overhang is considered.
splitting the left vote between labour greens and TOP is likely a dream come true for the coalition but less so for National.
There is a real chance that National could get 46 seats and still only have 29% of the vote.
In a funny twist, if TOP get 5% the National overhang could be bigger by the equivalent of 2.5% or there abouts. That's 3 extra seats but all are electorate seats.
For the first time, the right should they choose to have two votes and if people who are on the right understand this National may end up with a party vote at 25%.
Think about that and the right tend to be brighter so will understand it much quicker.
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