Lindsay Mitchell: Latest benefit numbers - beware the spin

Await some spin regarding falling beneficiary numbers.

But be skeptical.

After two months of data problems, MSD has managed to produce monthly statistics for February 2026.

Lindsay Mitchell: Absolute number on benefits at all-time high

Benefit numbers always rise in December driven mainly by the influx of students into the system.

Taking the seasonal rise into account, and comparing apples with apples, December 2024 nevertheless saw numbers exceed 409,000 - the highest absolute number ever.

Lindsay Mitchell: 'Most open and transparent government ever'

Three weeks ago I highlighted a very disturbing trend in benefit numbers.

In the ten week period to September 15, 2023 the number of people on a main benefit rose by 6,768 or almost two percent, whereas in the ten week period ending September 16, 2022 the numbers were virtually flat with a very small decrease of 141 recipients.

Lindsay Mitchell: Alarming trend in benefit numbers

While there will not be another quarterly release of benefit numbers prior to the election, limited weekly reporting continues and is showing an alarming trend.

Because there is a seasonal component to benefit number fluctuations it is crucial to compare like with like. In the ten week period to September 15, 2023 the number of people on a main benefit has risen by 6,768 or almost two percent, whereas in the ten week period ending September 16, 2022 the numbers were virtually flat with a very small decrease of 141 recipients.

Point of Order: Whoa there, before saluting the Ardern government for keeping so many people in work

Stats NZ figures this week indicated the country’s unemployment was 3.3% of the workforce in the June quarter, or 0.1% less than in the March quarter.

So should we give three cheers to the Ardern government for sustaining employment at such a high level through the Covid pandemic?

Given how wages have increased – for example, in the manufacturing sector by 8% over the past year – surely you have to concede the economy is ticking along very nicely under this government?

First, let’s check out the number drawing benefits.

Lindsay Mitchell: Unemployment drops by a third - benefit numbers rise by a quarter

Unemployment drops by a third - benefit numbers rise by a quarter.

That's what's happened during (almost) five years under a Labour government.

The June 2022 unemployment rate has just been released. It's 3.3 percent. In June 2017 the rate was 4.8 percent so has fallen by nearly a third.

But in that same five-year period the total number on benefits increased by 25 percent - or 276,333 to 344,642.